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ANALYSIS: Immigration deadlocked
Undocumented workers' fate divides parties


Miguel Angel Sanchez, 8, uses an American flag for shade as he attends a small rally calling for the legalization of undocumented immigrants Sunday in a park in downtown Miami. Miguel, who was born in the United States, was attending the rally with his mother, who is from Guatemala. (WILFREDO LEE/Associated Press)

Sen. Arlen Specter: The Senate Judiciary Committee chairman said Sunday he believes Congress will be able to work out differences and pass an immigration bill this year.


"I think the committee bill which got to the floor has the key ingredients of a successful bill," said Specter, R-Pa. He has pledged to have legislation ready for debate soon after lawmakers return today from a 2-week recess.

Sen. Carl Levin: The Michigan Democrat said it's possible the Senate can pass a bill if "the administration will weigh in and the president will take a leadership role on this."

"We need a bipartisan bill. We need a comprehensive bill," said Levin, who appeared with Specter on CNN.


WASHINGTON -- A deadlock in Congress over whether to allow some of the estimated 11 million or more undocumented workers to stay in the United States virtually ensures there will be no changes in immigration laws -- at least not until after the November elections.

Both Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided over how to deal with immigration. With signs that Hispanics are becoming more politically active, both sides are weighing the potential impact that the issue could have in an election year.

Republicans are trying to balance the needs of conservatives who are angry about illegal immigration, religious evangelicals who want to offer humanitarian aid to foreigners at the borders and business groups who want access to a pool of cheap labor.

Democrats are struggling to appease some labor union leaders who oppose any plan that would let foreign workers fill U.S. jobs, and at the same time satisfy calls from Hispanics and other minorities to bring undocumented workers out of the shadows and give them legal status.

But because Republicans control Congress and the White House and thus can determine the outcome of the immigration debate, the Republican political leadership is in the spotlight.

Many Republicans worry about repeating their party's traumatic experience in California after Republican Gov. Pete Wilson persuaded voters in 1994 to approve a proposition that denied illegal immigrants access to schools and social services. Hispanics fled the state's Republican Party.

"California went from being a swing state to being a deep blue state -- a Democratic state -- because of the immigration issue and because a generation of Hispanics have turned against the Republican Party," said Democratic pollster Sergio Bendixen.

Proceed with caution

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says caution should be the Republican password, warning that any Republican-fueled drive for tougher border enforcement could risk painting the party as anti-immigrant -- and destroy the modest gains the GOP has made among Hispanic voters.

"This is one of the very few issues that will decide which party is the majority party for the next generation," Gingrich said in an interview. "Republicans have to watch out not to alienate Hispanics."

Gingrich said he doubts Congress will reach a compromise on immigration because it's too hard to bridge the gap between "elite" business leaders who want inexpensive foreign labor and "average Americans" who want tight borders.

Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said that Republicans thought they would score political points on the issue by pushing a temporary worker program that appealed to both business leaders and Hispanics. But, Dean said, anti-immigrant lawmakers took control of the debate and have alienated Hispanics.

Republicans fear backlash

The recent protest marches across the nation by advocates of more liberal immigration laws point to new Hispanic political activism, leading some Republicans to worry about a backlash against the hard-line bill passed in December by the GOP-led House.

The measure would build a fence along much of the U.S.-Mexico border, make it a felony to be in the country illegally and penalize Americans who aid illegal immigrants. The House bill wouldn't allow undocumented workers to stay in the United States.

The Senate has tried to craft a compromise that combined some get-tough elements with a three-pronged plan that would put most illegal immigrants on a path to citizenship. The Senate proposal also would create a temporary worker program for foreigners and undocumented workers to fill jobs that U.S. employers have trouble filling with Americans.

That measure, negotiated by key Republican senators, capsized when GOP opponents wanted to offer at least 20 amendments and Democratic leaders vowed to block more than a handful of changes.

Bush has called for broad immigration reform -- including a guest worker program for foreign nationals -- but he has spoken in broad generalizations, leaving details up to Congress. Bush is scheduled to speak on immigration legislation today in California, and his remarks will be scrutinized for signs that he's sharpening his role in the debate.

Compromise elusive

When lawmakers return from spring recess this week, Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., the Judiciary Committee chairman, has scheduled another hearing on immigration. His panel is working to resolve differences on the stalled Senate compromise.

Sen. Bill Frist, R-Tenn., the Republican leader in the Senate, said he's willing to begin a new debate on the immigration bill. But even if the Senate passes immigration legislation in the next few months, it's unlikely the two chambers can reconcile their widely different approaches before the November elections.