Thread: Futures markets see Romney win in Florida

Futures markets see Romney win in Florida
Pollster Rasmussen says McCain struggles because he opposed tax cuts

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Posted: January 26, 2008
1:00 a.m. Eastern
By Jerome R. Corsi
© 2008 WorldNetDaily.com

The "futures market" that has picked winners in previous primaries indicates a dramatic reversal in the upcoming Florida contest, with Gov. Mitt Romney overtaking Sen. John McCain after the Arizona lawmaker held an overwhelming lead on the heels his victory in South Carolina.

Immediately after the South Carolina primary, pollster Scott Rasmussen's futures market prediction gave McCain a 70 percent likelihood of winning Tuesday's Florida primary. Now, Romney's chances are pegged at 62.7 percent, with McCain at 36.7 percent.

The Intrade market predictions also favor Romney with a 63 percent chance of winning, compared to 37.8 percent for McCain.

"Initially, the expectation was that McCain would do well in Florida, getting a bounce simply because of the momentum he had coming out of South Carolina," Rasmussen explained. "But that advantage has not held."

Rasmussen said the ground Gov. Mike Huckabee lost in South Carolina did not give McCain a bounce in Florida and Fred Thompson's departure from the race did not result in more voters moving to McCain.

"The economy has become the dominant issue in Florida," Rasmussen said, "and McCain is not going to get any help in Florida's Republican-only primary from independents switching over to vote for him."

McCain, he said, struggles with economic issues in Florida.

"McCain didn't support the Bush tax cuts, when he is asked about the economy, McCain's natural instinct is to emphasize his preference for spending cuts," Rasmussen explained.

"Our polling in Florida shows Republicans overwhelmingly believe keeping the Bush tax cuts in place are needed for the economy to recover," he continued. "Talking about cutting spending doesn't have the same emotional wallop."

Rasmussen's futures market accurately predicted wins for Sen. Barack Obama and Gov. Mike Huckabee in Iowa. The pollster successfully forecast McCain's win in New Hampshire but had Obama as the Democratic victor. The Illinois senator finished second to Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Rasmussen's polling in Florida indicates the GOP race is "too close to call," with Romney pulling 4 points ahead of McCain.

A Florida poll average compiled by RealClearPolitics.com shows McCain with a negligible 0.1 point lead.

"Romney has gained ground both in the polls and in public perception over the last several days," Rasmussen said. "But we could see another round of changes before Tuesday, so Team Romney would be well advised to not start celebrating yet."

Rasmussen said it was too early to know if McCain would be hurt by the news his Hispanic outreach director, Juan Hernandez, was an open-borders advocate who promotes "Mexico first."

"McCain is hurt in any primary where the immigration issue comes up," Rasmussen emphasized. "Voters still see him aligned with Ted Kennedy promoting comprehensive immigration reform, and it's not clear his recent emphasis on securing the border has taken hold."

Still, Rasmussen cautioned that one-third of the voters in the Florida Republican primary might yet change their minds.

Rasmussen agreed the Republican base has not yet settled upon a presidential candidate to champion.

"We have seen a trend for the Republican base to pull back whenever one of these candidates looks like they might lock in the Republican nomination," he cautioned.

"McCain could survive coming in second in Florida and still win the nomination," Rasmussen pointed out. "So some Florida voters are clearly taking a second look at Romney, knowing that a McCain win in Florida would help him sweep the remaining primaries."
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59902

Thanks for posting.

Sure hope this is true. McCain will just be another Bush, open borders, etc.

I heard a caller on talk radio from Florida say that McCain is running ads saying that he will make the tax cuts permanent.

McCain cannot be trusted on taxes or illegal immigration! He is so obviously trying to hide his record of opposing tax cuts, supporting mass amnesty, and is running from his liberal record in many areas.

And Tom DeLay said tonight that the Bush tax cuts would have been larger if it weren't for McCain.

What will Mitt do about our trade deficit and building a fence, anyone know? Lame Brain already admitted not having the brains to figure it all out.

Originally Posted by Rockfish

What will Mitt do about our trade deficit and building a fence, anyone know? Lame Brain already admitted not having the brains to figure it all out.

Good question

Originally Posted by zeezil

Rasmussen said it was too early to know if McCain would be hurt by the news his Hispanic outreach director, Juan Hernandez, was an open-borders advocate who promotes "Mexico first."

So we have a man running for President of the United States who has a campaign staffer who supports another nation over ours!?!? This is so outrageous it's difficult to refrain from profanity!! This man should not even be a Senator much less President!! I can't believe the voters of Arizona voted for the man.

And that freaking AP staffer was hasseling Romney because he has a lobbyist friend who sits in on meetings!?!