http://www.mexidata.info/id763.html

January 23, 2006

Letter to MexiData.info

Re: Is the U.S. Headed for a Showdown with Venezuela?, by Jerry Brewer

You're right about the importance of Chavez' having the oil wealth to give reality to what otherwise might be ideas and proposals floating in air. But is that all that attracts masses of Latin Americans to him? Mexico, too, has long been the beneficiary of oil riches, yet few in Lat Am look to Vicente Fox as an inspiration. Ecuador, similarly, has enjoyed an oil bonanza since the 1970s, and it is now a country nearing implosion, with not a single adherent of note to any of its succession of presidents over the last decade or so.

Chavez himself did not have control of the oil wealth until after he had been elected president and began to solidify his presidency in vote after vote. Why did his people choose to follow him at the beginning? Indeed, the prior governments of AD and COPEI had control of the oil for decades before him, yet they have now reached meltdown, rebuked and rejected by their own people, who knew all along what those parties were doing for themselves and for foreign interests with that same wealth.

Yesterday, Evo Morales took office with the best wishes of the immense majority of Latin Americans. He does not control the oil and gas, which, unlike in Venezuela, were de-nationalized and farmed off to foreign corporations. His main task remains how to regain control of his nation's natural wealth so that it can be used first for the benefit of Bolivians, and not of foreign corporations.

In Uruguay, the new government is composed of socialists and communists and former Tupamaros, yet it is not likely to have any money to spread around from the sale of cattle. This year we may see the PRD take the presidency in Mexico, and Ecuador is likely to follow in the footsteps of Bolivia, albeit in a more disorderly way.

For that matter, Cuba, with all of its problems and still a net importer of oil, continues to draw support from the region, and not just at the grassroots or among left intellectuals, but from presidents and high government figures in other countries.

The fact is that the neoliberal model, imposed beginning with the military dictatorships of the 70s, offers a net negative to the region. The low standing of Peru's Toledo, and the sudden rise of Ollanta Humala to head the polls, is a compressed expression of what is going on. People everywhere reject the Washington consensus, and Chavez -- as does now Morales -- gives voice and direction to feelings and thoughts that have existed for decades but which could never before ascend to governmental power. That's what makes people listen to him, and to Morales and Humala, aside from Lula and Vazquez and Lopez Obrador.

So what does Washington do? It sponsors the coup against Chavez, and the PDVSA lockout and sabotage, and the subsequent referendum -- all of them useless in the end, except to garner more support for Chavez and his domestic and foreign supporters. It sends to the United Nations an ambassador whose clearest public policy statement has been "The ONLY thing that matters is the interests of the United States!" What's next? Apparently, you favor a "showdown" in Venezuela of more epic proportions than what has been tried already. Will that make the US prevail in Latin America as before? A return to sponsoring military coups and CIA actions to overthrow elected governments will not go over well in a continent that is not likely to back down these days.

Ironically, all of the recent changes in Lat Am have been made possible by the end of the US-supported dictatorships and by the renewal of open elections. To destroy that nascent democracy simply because its results are inconvenient to US corporate interests will do for the US in Lat Am what the invasion of Iraq -- coincidentally chock full of oil -- is doing in the Middle East and among Muslim countries, extending to Indonesia, Philippines, and other nations.

Here is the headline Latin Americans are looking for: "Is the U.S. heading for an accommodation with Latin America's regional and respective national interests?"



Luis Rumbaut

Washington, D.C.

lucho10@earthlink.net