Thread: The Mexican Evolution

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/01/opinion/01dowd.html

August 1, 2005
The Mexican Evolution
By MATTHEW DOWD
Austin, Tex.

WITH nearly six million Mexicans living illegally in the United States, some Americans, particularly those in border states, are greatly worried about the costs of illegal immigration and have demanded that more be done to stem it. Modern-day "minutemen" patrol the border. Voters pass measures limiting the rights of illegal immigrants, and senators debate legislation to establish guest-worker programs. Certain elected officials and pundits focus on the perils of illegal immigration to score political points.

But chances are that there will be a substantial decrease in illegal immigration from Mexico in the next 20 years, and it won't be because of civilian border patrols, laws being passed, pronouncements by politicians, or as some would like, "building a wall on the border." Instead, the cause will be demographic trends within Mexico itself, trends that have been largely ignored in the debate over immigration.

Mexico's population growth rate has dropped by more than 50 percent during the last five decades, according to the United Nations. The annual growth rate has declined from approximately 3 percent in 1960 to 1.3 percent today. And it is expected to continue to fall in the first decades of the 21st century; by 2050, the United Nations predicts, the rate will be negative. The fertility rate in Mexico has had a corresponding significant drop, from 6.9 children per woman in 1955 to 2.5 today.

The population growth rate of Mexico is now only slightly higher than that of Canada, where recent data shows it to be 1 percent. Twenty-five years ago, Mexico had a growth rate more than twice that of Canada.

So what is the significance of all this? The aging of the population in Mexico coupled with Mexico's economic expansion mean that jobs in Mexico will be more plentiful, thereby prompting fewer young people to come to the United States in search of work. Studies have shown that as the population growth rate in countries worldwide slows, migration drops. This is especially true for an expanding economy like Mexico - in one telling statistic, youth unemployment there dropped to 4.1 percent in 2001 from 9.6 percent in 1995.

A recent Pew Hispanic Center study highlights some of the change in immigration to the United States from the south. Pew predicts that the share of first-generation immigrants in the total Hispanic population in the United States will drop from about 40 percent in 2000 to closer to a third by 2020. Thus first-generation immigrants will decline by almost 20 percent as a share of the total Hispanic population in the United States.

If the trend continues, it could be that we've already seen the high-water mark of illegal Mexican immigration - put simply, the issue may be resolving itself.

What would be the practical effect of all this? It suggests that any long-term project to close off the United States-Mexico border may use up money that could be more useful elsewhere. What's more, businesses that depend on a steady supply of low-paid illegal immigrants to keep costs down - restaurants, farms, construction companies - will most likely need to adapt by increasing salaries and benefits so they can attract legal immigrants or citizens as workers.

And as these trends become more apparent to the public, politicians running on an anti-Mexican-immigrant platform will be seen as out of step. While these politicians may seem successful in the short term, by the next decade the facts will definitely get in their way.

Does the United States need to continue to worry about border security and terrorism? Absolutely. Do we as a society need to figure out how to handle illegal immigrants and their families already living and working in the United States? Of course.

But legislators and government agencies should spend more time and resources addressing the problems of immigrants already here and our direct security needs, and much less time on prescriptive laws aimed at stemming illegal immigration from Mexico. We should be aware of the historic transformations occurring in Mexican society so that we aren't fighting a war that is already ending.

Matthew Dowd, who was the chief strategist for the 2004 Bush-Cheney campaign, is the senior adviser to the Republican National Committee.

But legislators and government agencies should spend more time and resources addressing the problems of immigrants already here and our direct security needs, and much less time on prescriptive laws aimed at stemming illegal immigration from Mexico. We should be aware of the historic transformations occurring in Mexican society so that we aren't fighting a war that is already ending.

Dowd is a fool.

The WAR the RNC needs to worry hasn't started yet.