http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/poli ... unter.html

Hunter pressing to chop long odds of presidential run

By Dana Wilkie
COPLEY NEWS SERVICE
January 15, 2007

MANCHESTER, N.H. – When the Rev. John Cerrato got the call asking if a congressman named Duncan Hunter could attend services at Cerrato's Baptist church here, he was understandably squeamish about turning his sanctuary into a presidential campaign zoo.






Rep. Duncan Hunter
But when the campaign worker on the line assured the pastor that the San Diego-area lawmaker only wanted to worship on a recent Sunday, Cerrato agreed. Besides he'd never heard a whit about this man who is conducting a long-shot bid for the Republican presidential nomination next year.
It was Hunter's first trip to this early-primary election state, a place that tends to quickly separate the presidential wannabes from the contenders, where a respectable primary showing can translate into national name recognition and momentum. At the moment, the congressman is a decided dark horse, having won a mere 1 percent of support from Republican voters in recent national polls.

But Hunter's visit was a sign that he is serious about making a bid. Another sign came Friday when Hunter moved closer to formalizing his candidacy, forming an exploratory committee that legally allows him to raise and spend campaign money. He said he intends to officially declare his candidacy in South Carolina, another early-primary state, this month, even though he essentially already did that in San Diego in October.

Joining him on this trip was his son Duncan, a former Marine and Iraq veteran, who often was preoccupied with making campaign calls on a cell phone.

In coming weeks, expect the 58-year-old Alpine resident to counter pessimism about his prospects with a message that contrasts his long-held conservatism on defense, trade policy and immigration with the more moderate views of other GOP candidates.

“I'm the only conservative candidate in the race,” said Hunter, as he sat in a worn red booth at Pappy's Pizza, a regular stop for presidential hopefuls. “I don't need consultants to give me a conservative image.”

Expect him, as well, to highlight his lengthy experience on U.S.-Mexico border enforcement. Long before the border became a national concern, Hunter advocated tough enforcement. He was the one who led the drive to build a fence along San Diego's border with Mexico and who championed 700 miles of new fencing in other border areas.

“Border enforcement is no longer an immigration issue, which did not resonate with Americans who did not live in border states before Sept. 11,” Hunter said.

“But terrorism does. National security will be a pivotal issue for the American people in the next five to 10 years. I can point to the border fence. Some of the other candidates have to explain why they don't think (the fence) is a good idea. That's going to take a lot of consultants.”

Last week, it wasn't consultants but the Congressional Research Service that sparked questions about the fence after estimating its cost at up to $49 million – 20 times more than Hunter contends it would cost to build.

Hunter is trying to carve out a niche not only with immigration, but his support for the president's Iraq policies and, in a more esoteric realm, harsh criticism of what he says are China's unfair trade practices used to finance a military buildup.

But finding turf to call his own in the campaign for the Republican nomination will be a challenge. In what could be a wide-open, crowded and expensive race, Hunter is up against GOP marquee names such as Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Some of them have spent years locking up donors and strategists in pivotal states such as this one. Since Hunter only recently formed his exploratory committee, it is difficult to know the extent of his fundraising appeal. And his name identification is at rock-bottom, with only 1 percent of Republican voters supporting him in recent CBS and CNN polls and 88 percent knowing so little about him they can't form an opinion about him, according to a Los Angeles Times survey.

“I think he's a little behind the eight ball in terms of money and organization to be able to launch his campaign,” said David Moore, who was formerly with the Gallup Poll and is a polling consultant in the Granite State.

“For a candidate to break through in New Hampshire, they have to get a great deal of public attention, and I just don't see it happening for most congressmen.”

The sort of public attention Hunter did get last weekend here was healthy enough: a local TV station covered his hand-shaking with voters at the Manchester Mall; his visits with two state newspapers generated stories; and he was on hand for a live interview on the Fox News Channel just as it was covering the Port of Miami's bomb-squad investigation of an immigrant's truck.

On a morning radio talk show Jan. 6, Hunter focused almost solely on the border fence, which he claims caused smuggling in San Diego to “drop like a rock.” The 700 miles of fencing between Calexico and Texas, he said, could “save 200-plus lives a year” by preventing cross-desert journeys that can lead to immigrant deaths.

Despite being unknown to most Americans, Hunter is familiar to Washington insiders and is frequently sought out for the national television news talk shows for his military acumen, stemming from his many years on the House Armed Services Committee and his four years as chairman.

After the New Hampshire church service, Rev. Cerrato considered the recent polls, then pointed out that Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter were unknowns when they launched their presidential campaigns.

“Who ever heard of those guys?” Cerrato asks. “You just never know.”

People said that about Hunter once before.

With little name identification or money, Hunter launched a challenge in 1980 to incumbent Democratic Rep. Lionel Van Deerlin – and won. Of course, Ronald Reagan's coattails that year had something to do with that.

Some experts in New Hampshire say Hunter's border-enforcement message may be just the hook a candidate needs to break from the pack. However, the same experts note that candidates such as McCain and Giuliani have well-established hooks of their own. With McCain, it's his reputation as an independent straight talker, which helped him win the New Hampshire primary eight years ago against then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush. With Giuliani, it's his leadership after the terrorist attacks on his city.

Moreover, if former House Speaker Newt Gingrich runs, he will be a strong contender for the conservative mantle, as would socially conservative Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, who formed an exploratory committee last month.

But as politically savvy New Hampshire residents will tell you, a little-known candidate can quickly join the big boys by virtue of the state's small size, tight-knit communities, retail-driven politics and first-in-the-nation primary status.

“If any of (the front-runners) goes down in flames, somebody's got to be an alternative,” pollster John Zogby said. “As we have seen many times, front-runners can flag somehow – a bad story or two, faltering with a misquote. That is when lightning can strike.”

And being well-positioned with a good first impression never hurts. Hunter's waitress at Pappy's Pizza complained privately that candidates come in day after day, hog her tables for hours, then leave piddling tips. But after Hunter and his son got up to leave, and the waitress discovered a $20 tip on her table, she gleefully called after the congressman: “Goodbye, Mr. President.”