Experts: Legalizing pot in California affects Mexico

By Matthew T. Hall
Originally published October 14, 2010 at 4:50 p.m., updated October 14, 2010 at 6:30 p.m.

Legalizing marijuana in California could deprive Mexican drug cartels of revenue and potentially escalate violence south of the border, at least in the short term, policy experts said Thursday.

The group gathered at the University of San Diego to discuss what Proposition 19, the legalization ballot measure, would do to Mexico’s drug trafficking if approved by voters on Nov. 2.

Rosalie Pacula, a senior economist with the nonpartisan Santa Monica-based RAND Corp., said a RAND study released Tuesday estimated Mexico drug trafficking organizations generate $1 billion to $2 billion a year exporting marijuana to wholesalers in the U.S. — and calculated that Proposition 19 could reduce that anywhere from 2 percent to 20 percent.

Losses at the high end could occur if California became a major marijuana exporter to other states, according to the study.

Proposition 19
Proposition 19

• Would make it legal under state law for individuals to possess of up to an ounce of pot and allows them to grow it in a space of up to 25 square feet.

• Prohibits possession on school grounds, providing it to anyone under 21 years old, using it in public or while minors are present.
“The impact for Mexico and the rest of the U.S. is entirely speculative,â€