Thread: Joint Drill for Exodus from Caribbean

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... 6763.story

Joint drill set to prepare for exodus from Caribbean

By Ruth Morris
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted March 3 2007


Federal, state and local authorities are preparing to dispatch boats, planes and hundreds of emergency personnel in a two-day drill aimed at preventing a mass migration to Florida.

The full-scale exercise, planned for Wednesday and Thursday, follows a December tabletop drill. But Coast Guard officials were quick Friday to stress that the recent power change in Cuba did not prompt the dry run, which will involve dozens of agencies in Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.

"The timing of this year's exercise in no way reflects concern over recent events in Cuba," Coast Guard officials said in a press release. "In fact the mass migration plan does not focus on any single country; rather it addresses mass migration from any Caribbean nation."

Coast Guard officials were referring to Cuban President Fidel Castro's decision in July to hand power to his brother Raul before undergoing emergency surgery.

Coast Guard spokesman Dana Warr said Cuba was not the only country in the region from which the United States could expect a flow of people. Haiti, with its rampant kidnapping and unsteady path to democracy is also a country on officials' radar, along with the Dominican Republic.

The Coast Guard has picked up 823 Dominicans so far in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1, compared with 621 Cubans and 267 Haitians.

The drill will involve 50 government agencies and will take emergency crews through a myriad of scenarios, including medical evacuations and interdictions. It will also train crews on how to process an influx of people and to deter them from coming in the first place.

Federal Homeland Security officials and Florida emergency management authorities will join local police and health officials, Warr said.

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban American Studies at the University of Miami, said there was no denying Castro's health problems had added a sense of urgency to exercises like the ones planned for next week. But he said it was unlikely that a Cuban migration would be large enough to overwhelm U.S.-based authorities.

Suchlicki's institute estimates there are only enough boats in Cuba to bring 25,000 to 30,000 people to Florida.

Those figures fall short of the 125,000 Cubans who arrived during the 1980 Mariel boatlift, which saw 125,000 immigrants crossing the Florida Straits.

He predicted authorities would impound boats and slap heavy fines on smugglers to discourage Cuban-Americans from trying to fetch relatives from the communist island, as they did in 1980.

"In order to have a mass migration, Raul Castro has to say to the Cubans, `Go,' and the U.S. government has to look the other way and let Cubans go pick up family members," Suchlicki said. "That's unlikely."

More likely is that thousands of Cubans would head for the Guantanamo Bay Naval Station on the island's eastern tip, Suchlicki said. The United States has held an indefinite lease on the 45-square-mile base since 1903, and currently holds hundreds of "enemy combatants" there, many captured in Afghanistan in 2001.

Suchlicki said the base would be fairly easy to access by boat from nearby beaches.

A road runs up to the base's perimeter from the Cuban side, and a handful of Cuban employees enter every day.

Short of using force to stop Cubans from storming the base, Suchlicki said, "You can't prepare for that scenario."

U.S. prepares for thousands to flee Cuba
By Carmen Gentile
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Published March 7, 2007


MIAMI -- Fearing a potential mass exodus of Cubans when Fidel Castro dies, dozens of federal, state and local agencies, along with the military, will participate in a massive two-day training exercise beginning today to hone migrant-interdiction skills.
The exercise will also test readiness to intercept vessels heading to Cuba. Some Cuban exile groups in South Florida have made clear their desire to set sail for Havana once they receive proof of Mr. Castro's demise.
Last week, 47 migrants from Cuba were intercepted at sea by the Coast Guard and sent back to the communist island. One of those intercepted was allowed to stay because of a medical condition that required immediate attention.
The 50 or more groups participating in Operation Vigilant Sentry -- a Coast Guard-designed drill -- will also involve representatives from the State Department, the Pentagon and the Justice and Homeland Security departments.
Though Coast Guard officials would not specify just how many ships, aircraft and people would participate, they did acknowledge it as the most extensive preparation yet for such a mass-migration scenario.
"By interdicting people at sea, it's putting out the message that it's not safe to travel here that way," said Coast Guard Petty Officer Jennifer Johnson.
One scenario to be practiced during the exercise is the interception of a vessel sailing out of Fort Lauderdale, Fla. for Cuba.
"We're going to simulate several situations to test areas of the plan to see if they are working," said another Coast Guard official.
The ailing Mr. Castro, 80, ceded power in July to his younger brother, Raul. The elder Mr. Castro had abdominal surgery and has not been seen in public since.
This week's exercise comes weeks after Congress approved an $18 million Pentagon plan to prepare U.S. Naval Base Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to accommodate migrants intercepted at sea.
Bush administration officials told The Washington Times the improvements would create facilities to handle about 10,000 migrants.
Other improvements would include a processing center for those seeking asylum.
Typically, Cubans who reach dry land in the United States are allowed to remain in the country, while those intercepted at sea are returned home.
Officials fear the so-called "wet foot-dry foot" policy would be overwhelmed in the event of a mass migration.
"The capacity to process migrants at Guantanamo is an integral part of our plans to ensure that any attempted mass migration in the Caribbean is not successful," one Bush administration official said.
A new detainment center and stepped-up vigilance along the waters separating Florida and Cuba won't deter thousands from attempting to gain access to the United States after Mr. Castro's death, said Andy Gomez, a senior fellow at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.
Mr. Gomez said he has warned Bush administration officials that up to 500,000 Cubans could flee the island "in all directions," inundating not just the United States, but several Caribbean and Central American nations with asylum seekers.
"We [in South Florida] are very concerned whether we can absorb that kind of migration -- we just don't have that kind of infrastructure," he said, noting likely shortfalls in housing, health care and public services were hundreds of thousands of migrants to arrive on Florida's shores.

http://washtimes.com/world/20070307-120816-2294r.htm

"The timing of this year's exercise in no way reflects concern over recent events in Cuba," Coast Guard officials said in a press release. "In fact the mass migration plan does not focus on any single country; rather it addresses mass migration from any Caribbean nation."

IWho are these Coast Guard Officials trying to kid? It has EVERYTHING to do with Cuba.

Firecracker: it does have everything to do with Cuba but they are being politically correct.