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Tuesday, October 3, 2006
Analysis: Immigration dominates Arizona race
Editor's note: This is one in a series of profiles of key races in the November elections that will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Congress.
By DENA BUNIS
The Orange County Register
As the elections near, political eyes are focused on whether Republicans will hold their House majority or Democrats will gain the 15 seats they need to regain control.

All 435 House seats are up. As usual, only a fraction of incumbent lawmakers are in a competitive race. None of Orange County's six seats are among the fewer than 40 contested elections.

In the 8th District of Arizona, 11-term Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe is retiring. Republican state Rep. Randy Graf is running against Democratic state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords.

Analysis

Illegal immigration is dominating this race perhaps more than in any other competitive district in the nation. And this race could be a key test of how the immigration issue will play, particularly in border states.

Recent polls by the Arizona Daily Star have immigration outdistancing the Iraq war and the economy as most important.

And those polls show that Graf, a Minuteman enthusiast, trails his Democratic opponent even though he has made border security the focus of his campaign.

Former House Speaker Tip O'Neill coined the phrase that all politics is local. But up until a few weeks ago, both national parties were pouring money into this race, seen by Democrats as a must-win in their quest for control.

The GOP House campaign committee recently canceled television ad buys in the district, and the Democrats followed suit. The National Republican Campaign Committee had backed Graf's primary opponent – state Rep. Steve Huffman.

Huffman's views on immigration – and those of the retiring incumbent, Kolbe – are closer to those of President Bush, who wants an immigration bill that includes a guest-worker program and legalization plan for undocumented immigrants. Graf keeps an upside-down picture of Bush in his office to protest the president's position.

About the district
This southeastern Arizona district is centered in Tucson, a high-tech city, tourist destination and home to the University of Arizona.

Ethnicity
White: 73.9%
Hispanic: 18.2%
African American: 3%
Asian: 2.1%

Median income
$40,656

2004 election
President: Bush, 53%; Kerry 46 %

Fun Facts

•For decades, Tucson was the political base for the Udall family, most notably for Democratic congressman and one-time presidential hopeful Mo Udall.

•It was in Cochise County – which includes Tombstone and Bisbee – that Apache leader Geronimo faced the U.S. Army in 1900.

Sources: 50states.com; Center for Responsive Politics; Cook Political Report; Sabato Crystal Ball; Almanac of American Politics