Border security: Economy might be behind dip in migrant arrests

By ARTHUR H. ROTSTEIN | Associated Press
July 29, 2007

Critics say deterrence efforts only one factor in lower apprehensions

TUCSON, Ariz. — President Bush and the Border Patrol have been citing dramatic declines in illegal immigrant apprehensions this year as evidence that their deterrence efforts are paying off by discouraging crossing attempts.

The Border Patrol, which has been helped for the past 12 months by large numbers of National Guardsmen taking on support roles and added agents and technology, has reported a 24 percent dip in apprehensions along the Mexican border from Oct. 1 through June compared to the same period a year earlier.

But a number of people who observe border developments and migration flows dispute the reasons the agency is giving for that, or say that any deterrence from added enforcement is but one factor among several possible reasons for a decline.


Some contend more immigrants are staying home because the U.S. economy has soured; others say there’s been no reduction in the flow of first-time migrants or that there’s no way to know how many people slip across undetected. Even a top Border Patrol spokesman says political, social and economic factors are part of the mix.

“People can read lots of different things into apprehension data,â€