2008 Republican Presidential Primary
GOP Nomination: Rudy Down, Thompson in Second, McCain Falls to Fourth
Tuesday, June 05, 2007

With former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson taking his first formal steps towards a Presidential run and the immigration debate creating challenges for Arizona Senator John McCain, the race for the Republican Presidential nomination has an entirely different look this week.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top, but his support has slipped to 23%. That’s down two points from a week ago and is his lowest level of support all year. Earlier, Giuliani had consistently enjoyed support in the mid-30s. That was before Thompson’s name was added to the mix and before Giuliani stumbled on the abortion issue in the first GOP debate of the season.

Thompson, who just formed an exploratory committee and is the newest face in the race, immediately moved into second place. With 17% support, he is within six points of the frontrunner. That’s closer than anybody has been to Giuliani in 20 consecutive weekly polls. Thompson is also competitive in a variety of general election match-ups with potential Democratic nominees.

Among men, Thompson earns 21% support while Giuliani attracts 20%.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the top choice for 15% of those likely to vote in a GOP primary. That’s little changed from the last couple of weeks and keeps him a single-point ahead of Arizona Senator John McCain who is preferred by 14%.

McCain was once seen as the dominant frontrunner for the nomination. He lost that status early in the year when polls consistently placed him in second behind Giuliani. However, as the immigration debate unfolded, he slipped to third place last week and fourth place now. McCain is the only Republican candidate to strongly support the immigration bill currently being debated in the Senate. Just 26% of Americans favor passage of that bill. Only 9% of Republicans believe the current legislation would actually reduce illegal immigration.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans and unfavorably by 15%. For McCain, the numbers are 63% favorable, 32% unfavorable. In his home state of Arizona, McCain is currently viewed favorably by just 47% of all voters.

Thompson and Romney have much lower name recognition than Giuliani and McCain. Thompson is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by just 14%. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Romney while 28% hold an unfavorable view.

Most Americans are willing to support an enforcement-only approach at this time. On Wednesday, Rasmussen Reports will release updated polling data on support for the Senate immigration bill.

Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 637 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted May 29-31, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.

Republicans have gained a bit of ground in the Generic Congressional Ballot over the past month. But, the number of Republicans in the United States has declined to a new low. The number of Democrats is lower as well. There are now more unaffiliated voters than Republicans sparking talk of a possible third party run by Michael Bloomberg. Bloomberg is reportedly willing to spend a billion dollars on his campaign and could create Electoral Chaos by deadlocking both the Electoral College and the House of Representatives. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of voters say they would be somewhat or very likely to vote for Bloomberg in 2008.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... al_primary