Thread: Arizona swings away from Democrats

Arizona swings away from Democrats


Jan Brewer's tough anti-illegal immigration law was a game-changer in Arizona. | AP Photo

By MOLLY BALL | 12/18/10 7:04 AM EST
Updated: 12/18/10 2:42 PM EST
385 Comments

Not so long ago, Arizona was on its way to becoming a swing state. Now that seems like a distant memory.

On the eve of the 2008 presidential election, ebullient Democrats were convinced that the state would have been in play if it weren't home to Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. Some even thought they could steal it from under McCain's nose.

That didn't happen — McCain took 54 percent of the vote in his home state. But the surrounding Western swing states, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, all went for Obama. Arizona, Democrats were sure, was inevitably next.

Fast forward two years and things look substantially less rosy for Arizona Democrats.

The map of competitive states for 2012 is unknown at this point, but local and national observers say it's hard to imagine Arizona being a battleground in the next presidential contest after what happened in 2010.

Two of the five Democrats in the state's eight-member House delegation lost; two more survived, but took less than 50 percent of the vote. McCain easily won reelection to the U.S. Senate. Also reelected was Gov. Jan Brewer, once viewed as a placeholder when she ascended to the post upon the departure of Janet Napolitano to helm the federal Homeland Security Department.

Republicans won all eight 2010 statewide contests. Seven of them were not close. GOP gains in both houses of the state Legislature gave the party a two-thirds majority of both chambers. The new leader of the state Senate, Russell Pearce, is a firebrand conservative who has declared it a "Tea Party Senate."

"We're a one-pizza caucus," Democratic state Sen.-elect Kyrsten Sinema said ruefully of her party's nine-member contingent in the 30-seat upper chamber. "So the meetings are cheap."

The Democratic swoon in Arizona is partly a symptom of the national GOP wave that hit in the midterm elections. But there are local factors that make a Democratic resurgence in the Grand Canyon state unlikely in the near term.

The exit of Napolitano, a popular centrist two-term governor, blew a hole in the state's Democratic infrastructure. Napolitano "was the key Democrat in the state of Arizona," said Phoenix lobbyist Chris Herstam, a former Republican lawmaker and gubernatorial chief of staff. "When she departed in the middle of her gubernatorial term to join the Obama administration, a gigantic political vacuum was left, and it's never been filled."

But by far the most significant factor in Republicans' new dominance, according to Republicans and Democrats alike, is SB 1070.

The tough anti-illegal immigration law — authored by Pearce, a former chief deputy to Maricopa County's controversial Sheriff Joe Arpaio — sparked a national uproar for enforcement provisions that critics said would lead to racial profiling of Hispanics. But polls show it to be popular with large majorities both locally and nationally.

The measure put Democrats in a bind. Their opposition to it was staunch and heartfelt, but they have found themselves trying to convince voters ever since that they're not soft on illegal immigration. Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva was pilloried for urging a national boycott of his own home state over the measure. And the lawsuit brought against the bill by the Justice Department did the party no favors with independent voters already souring on the Obama administration.

"There was a time, in May or so of last year, when our gubernatorial candidate was up in all the polls and Jan Brewer was running third in the Republican primary," recalled Don Bivens, chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party. "Then she signs SB 1070 and vaults so far to the front that other [GOP] candidates drop out, and our candidate is 20-plus points down. It was a game-changer in this election, and frankly I think it was intended to be a game-changer."

While that bill has had most of its provisions struck down by the courts, Democrats expect Republicans to keep milking the immigration issue. State Republicans are proposing legislation that would deny citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants — so-called "anchor babies" — even though courts have historically ruled that the 14th Amendment guarantees it. Other stringent immigration measures could be on the horizon as well.

Democrats haven't figured out a way to stick up for their Hispanic constituents while convincing the independents who make up nearly a third of the state's electorate that they, too, want to get tough on illegal immigration.

And while the issue is helping drive Hispanics away from the GOP, it doesn't seem to be driving them to the polls. Unlike other Western states that had strong Hispanic turnout in 2010, in Arizona, where Latinos are 18 percent of the eligible voters, they made up just 13 percent of the electorate, according to exit polls.

Bivens remembers the halcyon days of 2008, when Democrats' prospects were seemingly on the ascent.

"Maybe the Thursday or Wednesday before the election, [the polls] closed to within the margin of error between McCain and Obama," he said. "I was begging for Obama or Michelle Obama or somebody to come out and we could do this." Yes, it was McCain's home state, he argued at the time, but Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000.

The Obama campaign didn't send the candidate or his wife; then-Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean was dispatched to Arizona instead. McCain's camp was forced to make a last-minute push, widening the gap and saving him the embarrassment of a home-state loss.

"For a while there, it was close," Bivens said. "I've got to think that could be done again. But, I do think we're trying to figure out: Are we Colorado, or are we Kansas?"

The 2010 Census is expected to result in a gain of one electoral vote for Arizona, giving it 11 — the same number as Missouri or Indiana.

Democrats' strategy now seems to consist mostly of hoping Republicans trip themselves up. As they see it, the GOP's increasingly extreme tendencies — such as proposed measures to ban human-animal hybrids, or to force presidential candidates to present their birth certificates to the secretary of state, or Brewer's recent push to deny organ transplants to the poor — will eventually provoke a backlash.

"Voters are starting to get buyer's remorse," said Democratic state Rep. Chad Campbell, the incoming minority leader. "We have seen no plan from this governor since she took office to fix this fiscal situation. In 2012, voters are going to go to the polls looking to change direction."

But others wonder if Arizona, the state that produced Barry Goldwater, hasn't simply reverted to form.

"The hope is that voters like me, regular people, say, 'Hold on a second, this is over the top. What you're doing is crazy,'" said Sinema, the state senator-elect, a lawyer from Phoenix. "I'm hoping that, but I'm not predicting that. Republicans have been in control in Arizona for 40 years, and we haven't seen a backlash yet."

Correction: This story was updated to identify Kyrsten Sinema as a lawyer from Phoenix.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/46572.html

Originally Posted by AirborneSapper7

Arizona swings away from Democrats

Democrats haven't figured out a way to stick up for their Hispanic constituents while convincing the independents who make up nearly a third of the state's electorate that they, too, want to get tough on illegal immigration.

Democrats' strategy now seems to consist mostly of hoping Republicans trip themselves up.

While the Demos are hoping, they would do well to read recent polls which show that Hispanics are increasingly concerned about illegal immigration. Could it be that they're finally facing up to the fact that their children and their grandchildren are every bit at risk of being undercut as are the offspring of all other Americans?
************************************************** ***********************
Americans first in this magnificent country

American jobs for American workers

Fair trade, not free trade

Originally Posted by vistalad

Originally Posted by AirborneSapper7

Arizona swings away from Democrats

Democrats haven't figured out a way to stick up for their Hispanic constituents while convincing the independents who make up nearly a third of the state's electorate that they, too, want to get tough on illegal immigration.

Democrats' strategy now seems to consist mostly of hoping Republicans trip themselves up.

While the Demos are hoping, they would do well to read recent polls which show that Hispanics are increasingly concerned about illegal immigration. Could it be that they're finally facing up to the fact that their children and their grandchildren are every bit at risk of being undercut as are the offspring of all other Americans?
************************************************** ***********************
Americans first in this magnificent country

American jobs for American workers

Fair trade, not free trade

And LaRaza blows a smoke screen saying the Hispanic vote will remember the dream act vote.

Hey Janet(s).........Only the illegals will remember!