MAY 27, 2010.

Arizona Law Cuts Two Ways in GOP Races

Tough Stances Are Likely to Resonate Beyond the Primaries in Some States, but Could Hurt the Party in California's General Election.

By JIM CARLTON And TAMARA AUDI

EL CENTRO, Calif.—Many candidates in Republican primaries have embraced Arizona's new immigration law, but that could hurt a few of them in November.

While a majority of voters tell pollsters they support the law, and tough stances on illegal immigration are likely to resonate this fall in such states as Nevada and Florida, Republican candidates in California might face a potential backlash from the state's more liberal electorate.

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Members of the Los Angeles tea party and Westside Republicans rally Tuesday against the City Council's vote to boycott Arizona over its immigration law.
.In California, "they risk alienating…independent voters who don't support deportations," said Mark Baldassare, chief executive of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

Among the leading GOP candidates to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger as California's governor, Steve Poizner has used his embrace of the Arizona law to try to convince voters in California's June 8 primary that he would represent GOP interests better than front-runner Meg Whitman, who doesn't support the law.

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."Meg Whitman and I, major differences here," the state insurance commissioner said in a new television ad that began airing May 24. In the ad, he accused the former eBay Inc. chief executive of downplaying illegal immigration. Ms. Whitman's aides dismiss his ad as the flailings of a desperate candidate, and say she would be just as tough on illegal immigration as Mr. Poizner.

Mr. Poizner still trails Ms. Whitman in the polls, but the gap has narrowed significantly in recent weeks, in part because of his attacks on her immigration stance, political analysts say. In March, Ms. Whitman led Mr. Poizner 61% to 11% among likely Republican voters, but as of May 19, that lead had dwindled to 38% to 29%, according to polls by the Public Policy Institute of California.

"He has used immigration and a range of issues to make himself the most attractive conservative candidate in the race," said Mr. Baldassare. "The Arizona law is one part of it."

Mr. Poizner and other GOP candidates who support the April 23 Arizona law, which requires police to question anyone they suspect of being an illegal resident, say they don't think their backing will prove to be a drawback for them in the general election.

Meanwhile, in the GOP primary to face California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, all three major candidates—Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore—have come out in support of the Arizona law.

In Nevada, some of the Republicans seeking to unseat Democratic Sen. Harry Reid are embracing the Arizona law to help endear themselves to conservatives in a state where tea-party activism runs strong.

"I think it's a great thing," said Danny Tarkanian, a former University of Nevada, Las Vegas basketball star running in the GOP primary on June 8 against Sharron Angle and Sue Lowden, who also support the law.

Mr. Tarkanian's campaign quickly put out a radio ad praising Arizona. "Washington is so far out of touch Arizona had to pass a law just so they could enforce the law," said Mr. Tarkanian, in the ad that began running statewide on April 26.

The GOP strategy of courting the anti-immigrant vote could give Democrats a talking point against rivals in general elections outside California, too.

Anger over the Arizona law among many Latinos in Nevada has led to a spike in Democratic voter registrations. Julie Arcache, a 30-year-old nursing assistant in Las Vegas, cited her concern over the Arizona law for her move to register to vote a few weeks ago.

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California GOP gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman opposes the law.
."They can stop me because of my color," said Ms. Arcache, who registered as a Democrat and vowed to vote for Mr. Reid. "We're not going to stand for it."

But a Rasmussen Reports poll last Thursday still showed the Senate majority leader trailing his top GOP challenger, former Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Lowden, 52% to 39% among likely voters, virtually unchanged from an April 5 poll. The same survey found 57% of the voters favoring Arizona-style legislation for Nevada.

Reid campaign spokesman Jon Cummings said that the Arizona law, which the senator opposes, could help focus attention on Mr. Reid's record of helping Latinos.

California is different from Nevada, with a political landscape that makes immigration a treacherous topic for Republicans. California does have a cadre of deeply conservative voters, especially outside the metro areas, who have a huge impact on primary voting. But in general elections, liberal votes tend to shift elections in favor of moderate candidates. Republicans make up 31% of California voters; 45% are registered Democrats.

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Ms. Whitman's rival Steve Poizner has gained by embracing the law.
.One sign that an anti-immigration stance during the primaries could backfire in general elections, according to Mr. Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute, comes from a March poll by the institute. He noted that 78% of Democratic voters surveyed said illegal immigrants should be allowed to keep their jobs and not be deported, while 46% of Republicans said they should be deported.

"They need to leave it alone, just as it is," said Marlen Baez, an 18-year-old student at Imperial Valley College, referring to immigration controls. Like many El Centro residents, Ms. Baez, a U.S. citizen, has relatives on both sides of the Mexican border and crosses back and forth weekly. "More than half the people who live [in Imperial County] are Mexican or have Mexican family," Ms. Baez said. "We shouldn't be kept apart."

But her classmate, Katherine Gonzales, is frustrated with what she sees as the lack of immigration enforcement. "It's something I think about a lot because I live so close to the border," she said. "I have a problem with all these Mexican students coming over here and getting a free and easy education, and they don't live here."

Ms. Gonzales said she is beginning to pay attention to the governor's race, and will be particularly interested in what the candidates have to say about immigration.

Write to Jim Carlton at jim.carlton@wsj.com and Tamara Audi at tammy.audi@wsj.com

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