Thread: Immigrant stand could hurt McCain, GOP observers say

Immigrant stand could hurt McCain, GOP observers say
Dan Nowicki
The Arizona Republic
May. 24, 2007 12:00 AM

To hear the illegal-immigration foes fume, Sen. John McCain may as well give up his presidential ambitions right now.

The Arizona Republican's involvement in a bipartisan Senate immigration-reform compromise has stoked the anger of many of the conservative party activists he has been wooing in his bid for the GOP nomination. Amid the mounting political pressures, McCain profanely tongue-lashed a colleague and ridiculed a rival for flip-flopping.

Even in the emotional and volatile world of presidential politics, immigration reform and the "amnesty" charge pack enough punch to rock the landscape. The issue is exploding at a time when McCain is running second to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in national polls and is trying to reinvigorate his campaign fundraising efforts.

"I absolutely believe this one issue alone is helping to sink his boat," said state Rep. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, a vocal opponent of the Senate plan. "Enough is enough. This is the sellout of America."

But other observers and analysts are not so quick to write off McCain for his attempt to balance border security and the documentation of millions of illegal workers.

For one thing, McCain's position in favor of a temporary-worker program and other reform elements, such as a controversial pathway toward legalization, was no secret. He has been introducing immigration-reform legislation since July 2003.

For another, Republican immigration politics are much more complicated than some enforcement-only advocates might suggest.

Sen. Jon Kyl and Rep. Jeff Flake, both Arizona Republicans, also are pushing for a comprehensive solution. Past polls have indicated Republican voter support for the approach.

J.D. Hayworth, whose high-octane opposition to illegal immigration dominated his 2006 re-election race, lost his seat to a Democrat despite the GOP voter advantage in the East Valley congressional district.

"Of course, (McCain) will get many brickbats from people who oppose comprehensive immigration reform, particularly anything resembling a path to citizenship," said Whit Ayres, a Virginia-based GOP strategist unaffiliated with any candidate. "But you also get points in this business for leadership, at least from people who care about governing."


McCain vs. Romney
Emotions are running hot in the increasingly noisy immigration debate.

One symptom: McCain last week fired the F-word at Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, during a closed discussion on the emerging deal. McCain later apologized.

"I understand the frustration and anger that people feel after a generation of a broken system where we have these incredible hardships imposed on us as a result of illegal immigrants," McCain said Monday in a conference call with political bloggers.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, one of McCain's chief competitors for the GOP nomination, has denounced the Senate deal as "a form of amnesty" because it would create probationary "Z" visas for illegal immigrants here now. Amnesty generally means forgiveness for a crime.

Romney's criticism led to an unexpected counterpunch from McCain, who highlighted his rival's previous defense of the basic approach.

"In the case of Governor Romney, maybe I should wait a couple of weeks and see if it (his position) changes," McCain said during the conference call.

"Because it's changed in less than a year from his position before."

This sort of personal sparring so early in the presidential nomination process is uncommon.

Other Republican and Democratic presidential hopefuls have taken shots at the legislation, either in whole or in parts.

Giuliani, the Republican front-runner, this week said the Senate proposal "doesn't achieve the purpose that I would like to see it achieve." He wants more of a focus on national security and keeping out terrorists, drug dealers and other criminals.


Doing 'what's right'
McCain maintains that he never weighed the political ramifications of immigration reform. As with immigration, McCain has staked out a strong position in support of victory in Iraq that could hurt him with some voters.

"The people of Arizona want our borders secured, and they want this issue resolved," McCain told reporters Friday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. "I have to do what's right. I've always done what I've believed is right, including on the Iraq war."

McCain urged critics to focus on security measures that must be met before other parts of the legislation are triggered, and he stressed the hurdles that illegal immigrants would face in becoming permanent residents. Under the bill, illegal workers would have to pay thousands of dollars as part of a years-long process that isn't amnesty, he said.

"This is a tightening of the border that is unprecedented in the history of this country," McCain said.

Flake, who represents an East Valley district, has felt the immigration heat for years. A past Republican primary opponent even challenged him partially on the issue.


Possibly 'a net plus'
Despite the deluge of phone calls to the district office from constituents, Flake predicted the immigration bill will turn out as "a net plus" for McCain because it highlights his reputation for reaching across the partisan aisle to tackle tough problems.

Besides, past polls sponsored by the conservative Manhattan Institute have indicated that a solid majority of Republican voters support the comprehensive immigration reform.

"The challenge is to just stick to it and recognize that there's going to be loud opposition. But, overall, people understand it," Flake said.

In Arizona, some conservative critics do wield influence.

Randy Pullen, state Republican Party chairman, this week took the unusual step of publicly criticizing the plan negotiated by the state's two GOP senators.

He previously decided to stay neutral in the Republican presidential race, a posture widely interpreted as a snub of McCain.

Underwhelmed by the border-security provisions, Pullen dismissed the bill as 90 percent "Ted Kennedy's ideas" and 10 percent "conservative Republican ideas." Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., is authoring the bill.

"Clearly, he's taking a position that's contrary to the party's position," Pullen said of McCain.



Still, most of the complaints to GOP headquarters targeted Kyl, President Bush and the party in general, Pullen said, not McCain.

That suggests many immigration-reform foes already had their minds made up about McCain.

"Those folks were probably not too happy with him to begin with, so I'm not sure that he's lost anything from the support that he's had in the past," said Kyl, McCain's Arizona campaign chairman.

Pearce also acknowledges that there has never been a question about where McCain stands on the issue.

"As much as we disagree, I appreciate the fact that he's been consistent," Pearce said.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/ ... 0524.html#

"I absolutely believe this one issue alone is helping to sink his boat," said state Rep. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, a vocal opponent of the Senate plan. "Enough is enough. This is the sellout of America."

I'll be standing on the shore applauding.

J.D. Hayworth, whose high-octane opposition to illegal immigration dominated his 2006 re-election race, lost his seat to a Democrat despite the GOP voter advantage in the East Valley congressional district.

I do NOT believe this was due to his stand against illegal immigration. It was to take complete control away from this ... so called president. Otherwise they would not have voted on measures AGAINST illegal aliens!

I understand the frustration and anger that people feel after a generation of a broken system where we have these incredible hardships imposed on us as a result of illegal immigrants

Our immigration system is not broken...IT IS IGNORED!!! IT IS NOT ENFORCED!!! There is a difference!!! Are you trying to convience the American people of these lies...or yourself? The American people are NOT buying it!!!

"The people of Arizona want our borders secured, and they want this issue resolved

...WE want this congress to stand up and do the RIGHT THING by Americans!!! NOT illegal aliens or corrupt corporations!!... but McCain is a day late and a dollar short. Nothing you can say will cover up the Amnesty you would like to hand out to illegal aliens, that the majority of Americans are opposed to!!

Pullen dismissed the bill as 90 percent "Ted Kennedy's ideas" and 10 percent "conservative Republican ideas." Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., is authoring the bill.

YOU soooooooo need to be fired!!

"Those folks were probably not too happy with him to begin with, so I'm not sure that he's lost anything from the support that he's had in the past," said Kyl, McCain's Arizona campaign chairman.

LOL...well, lets wait and see!!! I'm looking forward to it!!!!