Monday, December 8, 2008 - 2:08 PM PST

Report: College-educated workers won't keep up with California job needs
Sacramento Business Journal

California’s need for college-educated workers is outpacing the state’s ability to produce them, and the gap is expected to widen in the future, a report released by the Public Policy Institute of California concludes.

The San Francisco-based institute said 41 percent of California workers will need a bachelor’s degree to meet the state’s projected economic demand in the year 2025 if current trends continue, but changes in the workforce make this an unlikely outcome.

Although the percentage of college-educated workers has increased significantly in recent years -- from 28 percent in 1990 to 34 percent in 2006 -- that growth is expected to slow.

The institute cites two main reasons:

California workers who are now age 50 to 64 have the highest levels of education of any age group in the state. They will reach retirement age by 2025.

Latinos, a group with low levels of education, make up a growing share of the state’s workers. They made up 29 percent of the working-age population in 2006 and will make up 40 percent by 2020. Just 7 percent of Latinos had a bachelor’s degree in 1990, a percentage that increased to 10 percent in 2006 and is projected to reach only 12 percent in 2020.

At the same time as the growth in college-educated workers slows, the supply of workers with a high school diploma or less is projected to exceed economic demand. The results: Lower wages and fewer job opportunities for these workers, and higher wages for college-educated workers as demand for their skills increases. The growing mismatch between the needs of the economy and the education levels of the workforce is likely to put pressure on state social programs, increase economic inequality, and limit the path of the state’s economic growth.

“California may not be able to close the workforce skills gap, but the state’s leaders should look for ways to reduce it,â€