see red highlight.......was McCain Kyle's CAMPAIGN MANAGER?

Dem crossovers hurt Pederson

By Paul Giblin, Tribune
November 26, 2006

For Jim Pederson, there was no four-day weekend this Thanksgiving. The former U.S. Senate candidate was in his Phoenix real estate office on Friday tending to business.


Pederson spent $10.8 million of his personal fortune in a failed effort to unseat twoterm Republican Sen. Jon Kyl. The money is simply gone — spent on consultants, pollsters, travel and a storm of television commercials.

Yet for all that, the former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party only carried four of 15 counties statewide and fell to Kyl by nearly 10 percentage points, 53.3 percent to 43.5 percent.

So without a pressing need to be in Washington, D.C., Pederson was back at the Phoenix-based business he founded, The Pederson Group, answering his telephone.

“I lost the election, in case you haven’t heard,” he said.

Pederson plans to study the campaign to determine where he went wrong. Heading into Election Day, most polls showed him within about six percentage points of Kyl. And campaign strategists on both sides predicted the national Democratic surge would draw the Kyl-Pederson race to a closer finish.

Pederson succeeded in taking the Democratic stronghold of Pima County plus lightly populated Apache, Coconino and Santa Cruz counties.

While Pederson received a majority of votes cast by political independents and moderates, those votes were insufficient to overcome large numbers of Democrats who crossed over to support Kyl, pollster Bruce Merrill said.

A survey conducted by Arizona State University showed that 21 percent of voters made their decision toward the end of the campaign — and those voters cast their ballots disproportionately for Kyl.

“Pederson’s campaign was not effective in telling Arizona voters why they should vote for him, rather than against Kyl,” said Merrill, an ASU journalism professor.

Several factors probably figured into the loss, said Pederson, who was reported to be worth $120 million, most of it tied to investments.

Specifically, Kyl was a tough opponent. And despite his ultraconservative positions on most issues, he presented an image of a reasoned and likeable politician who has remained clear of careerstaining mistakes. Plus, Kyl’s attack commercials against Pederson were crushing.

Pederson’s own campaign wasted time, effort and money before Denver-based political strategist Sky Gallegos came aboard as campaign manager on July 14.

“To be honest, I thought we ran a pretty good campaign and we put the resources into it,” Pederson said. “To lose by 10 points, there’s something floating around out there that we don’t understand yet.”

Pederson’s campaign relied too heavily on the national anti-President Bush sentiment and on its own TV and radio spots. Meanwhile, the campaign also neglected to build a strong enough statewide network of volunteers, he said.

Kyl’s most-damaging TV ad featured sheriffs from across the state casting Pederson as a supporter of amnesty for illegal immigrants. The ad was based on a single comment during a radio interview about a 20-year-old law, and neglected Pederson’s 17-page immigration plan, which was available on his campaign Web site. Pederson’s actual position was nearly an exact copy of the immigration plan offered by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Kyl’s campaign chairman.

“It was a well-produced ad and even though there was no truth to it, I think it really had impact,” Pederson said.

Initially, he decided to ignore the attack, then chose to counter it by painting Kyl as an amnesty supporter himself, based on Kyl’s comments 20 years ago about the same 1986 law.

Popular Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano was also conspicuous by her absence during most of Pederson’s campaign. Former President Bill Clinton’s support was almost as visible as the backing of the governor, whom Pederson helped put in office four years earlier.

“She was supportive throughout the campaign and that’s all I’m going to say on it. I’m the guy who lost the campaign,” Pederson said.

The state’s most expensive political race burned through most of Pederson’s liquid assets, he said. But it raised important issues and helped other Democrats, including Congressmen-elect Harry Mitchell.

“We had a big payday this year,” said Pederson. “Looking back at it, I think the only big downside was my loss.”
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