Thread: For immigration reform, a narrow window of opportunity

For immigration reform, a narrow window of opportunity

by Dan Nowicki - Oct. 17, 2010 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

After years of failure, the fate of comprehensive immigration reform is murkier than ever.

With majority Democrats failing to make progress on bipartisan legislation, the immediate future of one of President Barack Obama's top policy priorities could be determined by the outcome of the Nov. 2 congressional midterm elections.

Some Democrats hold out hope that a reform bill can be passed in a postelection lame-duck session. If Republicans win big at the ballot box, the session could be the Democrats' last chance to act for a while.

It's also possible lawmakers could attempt to pass only a piece of the immigration-reform package, such as the Dream Act, before the new Congress convenes in January.

Shortly before adjourning for the campaign season, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., who is in a difficult re-election fight, unsuccessfully tried to revive the proposal to grant legal status to undocumented-immigrant children who have lived here most of their lives if they attend college or serve in the military.

Some Democrats acknowledged that immigration is a politically explosive topic and said they believe related legislation might have a better chance after election passions have cooled.

"There are people right now who don't want to take a stance because of their political situation," said Rep. Ed Pastor, D-Ariz. "Hopefully, after the election they may be able to reconsider and see where they're at and be willing to engage."

But Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz., warned that lame-duck action on immigration, especially if voters rebuke Democrats in the election, runs the risk of further polarizing the issue.

"You can't ram it through without bipartisan (support)," Mitchell said. "There's got to be movement on both sides. And that's why I think right now, it's probably not very possible."

Most, though not all, immigration-reform advocates despair at the thought of the House or Senate being taken over by Republicans, many of whom are campaigning on an anti-illegal-immigration platform. The GOP-controlled House refused to take up the Senate's bill in 2006, the last year Republicans ruled the chamber, despite strong support from Republican President George W. Bush.

But Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the co-sponsor with the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., of that bipartisan bill, argues that a Republican Congress would be more willing to devote the resources needed to secure the border, which he now maintains is a prerequisite to breaking the political logjam on immigration reform.

McCain and Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., this year introduced a 10-point border security plan that would, among other things, bring 6,000 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexican line, 3,000 of whom would go to Arizona.

"When our governor and our sheriffs certify that our border is secure, I think we can move on to immigration reform," McCain told The Republic.

Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., a supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, echoed that it's wrong to assume reform can't happen in a GOP Congress. There are potential political advantages for Republicans to getting the immigration issue off the table before the 2012 presidential election.

Some strategists have warned that Republicans are running the risk of hurting their long-term electoral prospects by alienating Latinos, a fast-growing demographic that is increasingly influential in deciding who will occupy the White House. Action on immigration reform could help reverse a perception that the party is anti-immigrant while taking an issue away from Obama.

"Only Nixon could go to China - maybe only Republicans can do immigration reform," Flake said.

Frank Sharry, executive director of the national pro-reform group America's Voice, dismissed as far-fetched suggestions that Republicans might consider moving forward on immigration reform.

In the event of a politically divided Congress, immigration reform's only hope would be McCain, he said, because McCain is the only Republican with enough stature and credibility to forge a new bipartisan compromise.

Otherwise, Sharry predicted, it probably would take another election victory by Obama to force Republicans back to the negotiating table.

"If the House goes GOP, in the Senate there will be two choices: a bi- partisan bill with McCain or a partisan fight where Democrats try to make Republicans look bad," Sharry said. "But prospects for reform getting across the finish line? Not very good."

McCain shrugged off Sharry's contention that he would be immigration reform's last hope, saying it's just part of the immigration-reform lobby's continuing effort to put pressure on him.

"Listen, as soon as we get the border secured, I'll be glad to sit down and talk to them and anybody," McCain said. "But first get the border secured."
http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/ ... z12jY6g8bw

Mr. Amnesty speaks out on behalf of all illegals. McCain winning the primary was a mistake for Arizona and mistake for America. He's still mad because he didn't win, "he will make us all pay for our insolence" Damn!