Balance of power in Virginia Senate up for grabs


November 5, 2007


By Seth McLaughlin - Residents across Virginia will vote tomorrow on all 140 seats in the General Assembly with the potential to shift the balance of power, and in local races that will determine how lawmakers deal with illegal aliens.

Republicans are expected to preserve their majority in the House, though their 11-seat advantage might shrink. Democrats could win the four seats needed to control the Senate for the first time since 1995.

John H. Hager, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, said Democrats have only a "chance" to win a couple of House seats. "But I do not see the Senate going Democratic," he said. However, most of the polls have shown no clear likely winners.

The stakes were especially clear in recent days, when party leaders crisscrossed Virginia to swing voters their way.

Should the Senate change hands, Northern Virginia Democrats would control more committees than ever before, allowing them to decide on such key issues as illegal aliens and transportation spending. Control of the Senate is crucial because the winners will work with the governor and House members elected in 2009 to redraw the legislative and congressional districts in 2011, a process that will help decide which party has the upper hand in Virginia elections over the next decade.

Northern Virginia voters also have much at stake in local elections, especially in the board of supervisors races in Fairfax and Prince William counties.

In Prince William, incumbent Chairman Corey A. Stewart, at-large Republican, has led the county's efforts to keep illegal aliens from receiving county-taxpayer benefits and to expand police powers in enforcing immigration laws. Mr. Stewart is challenged by Sharon E. Pandak, a Democrat and lawyer who opposes the resolutions. Mrs. Pandak says Prince William will pay more in lawsuits and for extra police officers than it would have paid to provide illegals with services.

In Fairfax County, incumbent board Chairman Gerald E. Connolly, a Democrat, has taken a softer approach to cracking down on illegals, but supports the Virginia law preventing them from receiving public benefits. He also supports federal immigration training for county deputies to screen suspects in custody.

He is challenged by Gary H. Baise, a Republican lawyer who says fixing the region's gridlock problems is his top priority, and that he supports federal training of local police to help resolve the illegal-migration problem. The other challenger, Glenda Gail Parker, an independent and Green Party member, has essentially based her campaign on the issue of mass transportation. Mrs. Parker, a business executive, wants to bring rail service to the county.

The outcome of the General Assembly races — 40 in the Senate and 100 in the House — also should provide insight into whether Democrats can take Virginia's 13 electoral votes in next year's presidential election, which the party has not done since 1964, when President Johnson defeated Sen. Barry Goldwater, Arizona Republican.

"The eyes of the nation will be on Virginia on Tuesday," Sen. Jim Webb, Virginia Democrat, told supporters last week.

With so much at stake, a record $60 million has been spent on the races, the most in state Assembly history.

The money has paid for campaign fliers and radio and TV ads in which Democrats have called Republicans too far to the right for mainstream voters, while Republicans have characterized Democrats as weak on illegal migration.

Voter-rich Northern Virginia continues to be pivotal in Virginia elections, already having played a major role in three consecutive Democrats winning top statewide office.

The changing demographics are clear in central Fairfax's 34th Senate District race, where incumbent Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, Republican, faces John Chapman "Chap" Petersen, a lawyer and Democrat with deep family roots in the district.

No Republican senator's district has as many Democrat voters as Mrs. Davis'. Not one of its precincts voted for George Allen in his failed re-election bid against Mr. Webb last year

So, Mrs. Davis has campaigned on closing the so-called "gun-show loophole" and on protecting state employees from employment discrimination based on sexual orientation.

"It is an interesting race because Jeannemarie is to the right of [Mr. Petersen] on some issues and to left of him on others," Gov. Tim Kaine said.

Mrs. Davis, who has nearly $1.5 million in large part because of her husband, Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a Republican, said she has changed as her district has changed.

She attacked Mr. Petersen for receiving the endorsement of the National Rifle Association and his 2005 support of a bill that exempted concealed-weapon permit holders from a ban on firearms on school property. Mr. Petersen shrugged off the attack, saying the Republican-controlled Assembly easily passed the bill, which former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, signed into law.

Mr. Petersen, who lost in his bid for lieutenant governor in 2005 and who bankrolled nearly $1.2 million for the race, criticized Mrs. Davis for being among the small number of lawmakers who crafted the multibillion-dollar transportation package.

The race in the 37th District is between incumbent Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II and Janet Oleszek, a Fairfax County School Board member.

The western Fairfax County district — between the Democrat-trending Beltway to the east and more Republican-trending areas to the west — is another example of how much the region has shifted politically.

"We are polar opposites," said Mr. Cuccinelli, a conservative Republican.

Mrs. Oleszek largely based her campaign on the assumption that voters have no interest in conservative Republicans, and made her priorities education and improving transportation.

The illegal-migration debate has dominated the 39th District race between incumbent Jay O'Brien, a Republican, and George L. Barker, a Democrat and the associate director of the Health Systems Agency of Northern Virginia.

"It's a very important issue," Virginia Attorney General Robert F. "Bob" McDonnell said Saturday after campaigning with Mr. O'Brien. "The other side has no plan, and I have basically said all along that Democrats are the do-nothing party when it comes to policing criminal illegal aliens."

Mr. Barker has made transportation his top priority and criticized Mr. O'Brien for supporting the so-called abuser fees imposed on Virginia drivers. To combat illegal immigration, Mr. Barker wants police to enforce existing federal immigration laws and deny bail to illegal aliens.

The illegal-migration issue also is key in the 29th District race between incumbent Charles J. Colgan, a Democrat, and Bob FitzSimmonds, a Republican.

Both districts include sections of Prince William County.

Heading into the summer, few would have thought Mr. Colgan would face a stiff challenge. That changed after Mr. FitzSimmonds started criticizing Mr. Colgan, who would be in line to be chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee should the chamber go Democrat, for his record on immigration.

"In 32 years, Chuck Colgan hasn't introduced one bill to solve our immigration program," Mr. Fitzsimmonds says in a commercial.

The strategy forced Mr. Colgan, a 32-year veteran, to highlight his opposition to in-state tuition for illegal aliens, his support of a ban on illegal aliens receiving driver's licenses, and his 2005 vote to bar illegal aliens from receiving taxpayer-funded benefits.

In the 6th Senate District, two-term incumbent Nick Rerras, a Republican, is fighting for re-election against Democrat Ralph Northam, a pediatrician.

He is also fighting the Democratic tide in the district, which includes the northern half of Norfolk, a slice of Virginia Beach, Matthews County and the entire Eastern Shore.

In 2005, Mr. Kaine won 51 percent of the vote and Republican Jerry Kilgore won 46 percent. Last year, Mr. Webb won 50 percent of the vote compared with George Allen's 48 percent.

Mr. Rerras' vote in favor of the Republican-driven transportation plan has hurt him. In response, he vowed to rework part of the law to make sure the "abuser fees" are also imposed on out-of-state drivers.

Mr. Northam, a VMI graduate and surgeon in the first Gulf War, says the stiff fees should be replaced with a 1.5 cent increase in the gas tax.

He also says his medical experience would provide lawmakers with insight into hot-button issues such as health care and mental health issues — a topic that will get a lot of attention following the Virginia Tech tragedy.

Mr. Rerras also has tried to salvage his seat by talking tough about illegal aliens.

In nearby Newport News, the race between Patricia B. "Tricia" Stall, Republican, and John C. Miller, Democrat, also highlights the political stance of the region.

For 12 years, Republican Martin E. Williams, chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee, held the seat, and his support for tax increases helped earn him his reputation as a moderate. His reign ended in the June primary when Mrs. Stall, an anti-tax conservative, ousted him.

Mr. Miller has since entered the race. He has emphasized a pro-business and pro-education message to take some of Mr. Williams' supporters. His education push also has contrasted heavily with an online petition Mrs. Stall signed that advocated ending government involvement in public education.

Conservatives cheered when moderate Republicans and tax-increase advocates Sen. John H. Chichester of Stafford County, and Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. of Winchester, announced they would not seek re-election.

But now Republicans are locked in extremely close races that political observers say highlight how rapid suburban growth has turned these historically Republican strongholds into more moderate districts.

In Stafford County, former commonwealth's attorney Richard Stuart, a Republican, and former state Delegate Albert C. Pollard Jr. compete for the seat left empty by the retirement of Mr. Chichester.

Mr. Chichester and House Speaker William J. Howell, Stafford County Republican, endorse Mr. Stuart, while Mr. Kaine put his political muscle behind Mr. Pollard.

In Winchester, conservative Republican Jill Holtzman Vogel, co-counsel in the 2000 Florida presidential recount for the Bush-Cheney campaign, is in a surprisingly close race against Karen Schultz, a Democrat.

Mrs. Schultz uses a radio spot to cast her opponent as a hypocrite. She asks how Mrs. Vogel can take hard-line stances when her husband's law firm has lobbied for the American Immigrant Lawyers Association, a group that backs a path to citizenship for some illegal aliens.

The Vogel campaign responded by airing a radio ad featuring Frederick County Sheriff Robert T. Williamson.

"Folks, it's just not true," Sheriff Williamson says. "The claim that Jill supports illegals and her husband works for them? Well that's just flat-out wrong and has proven to be false."


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