Thread: "Romney is top pick for GOP, poll shows"

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti ... POLL022007

Romney is top pick for GOP, poll shows
McCain close second, but much rests on undecided voters
January 12, 2008

By CHRIS CHRISTOFF

FREE PRESS LANSING BUREAU CHIEF

Republican primary voters whose greatest concern is the economy could give Bloomfield Hills native Mitt Romney his first major state victory in Tuesday’s Michigan presidential primary, according to the Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll.

Romney leads John McCain, 27%-22%, with Mike Huckabee in third at 16%, the poll showed. Romney’s core of support is in metro Detroit, where he has a 2-1 advantage.

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Of the 40% who named the economy as their top concern, Romney had a 42%-25% advantage over McCain. McCain wins by about the same margin over Romney among the 24% of Republican voters whose top issue is the Iraq war.


But Romney's lead could evaporate, depending on how tentative, undecided and uncommitted voters lean over the next two days. About 38% of voters who had a favorite said they might change their mind by Tuesday. Another 22% hadn't picked a candidate.

The poll also shows that relatively few Democratic voters plan to vote in the Republican primary, a factor that may be difficult to gauge. Independents and Democrats who cross over to the GOP could tip the election to McCain if they show up in substantial numbers.

Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. and director of The Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll, said the Michigan primary is "even quirkier than Iowa" with Democrats not campaigning in the state and only one of the three major candidates on the Democratic ballot.

Selzer's poll two days before the Iowa caucus successfully projected Barack Obama's victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Independent voters in the Michigan Poll favored McCain over Romney by 5 percentage points. But Romney holds an 11-point edge among self-identified Republicans.

The telephone survey of 600 people who said they definitely will vote has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted Wednesday through Friday.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor whose father George Romney was a Michigan governor in the 1960s, needs a win in Michigan after second-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"I think Republicans will pick a Republican nominee, and that's me," Romney said Saturday in an interview with the Free Press.

Romney also said while many Michiganders don't remember his father, "my dad's reputation has lasted longer than I can easily understand."

McCain, the Arizona senator who won last week's New Hampshire primary, defeated George W. Bush in Michigan's 2000 presidential primary on the strength of independent voters and some Democrats.

On Tuesday's Democratic ballot, only Clinton's name will appear among three major contenders. Obama and John Edwards took their names off because Michigan violated national party rules by moving its primary before Feb. 5.

It's not known how many Democrats who are unhappy with their choices will choose to vote on the Republican ballot. Obama and Edwards supporters are urging a vote for "uncommitted."

GOP voters say McCain is more electable, unifying and able to bring about change, the poll showed. But respondents like Romney more for his leadership style, understanding of voters and ability to convey hope for the future.

Ronald Wittebols, 42, of Mt. Clemens said he'll vote for Romney because the country needs a businessman at its helm.

Wittebols said the Iraq war is being mopped up by Bush, so the nation's focus is turning to the economy — and Romney can help it.

"He's a successful businessman, a billion-dollar venture capitalist. He's got a sense of what a balance sheet should look like," Wittebols said.

Sharon Borsand, 64, a retired teacher in Bloomfield Hills, said Romney has the experience the country needs.

"Hopefully, he can bring more business and jobs here," Borsand said.

Borsand said that while she likes McCain, she doesn't think the 71-year-old candidate has the energy to take on Clinton, 60, or Obama, 46.

Steve Weir, 36, a landscaper in Holly, said he'll vote for McCain because he admires his military service.

"He seems like he's not your ordinary politician," said Weir, who also voted for McCain in 2000. "He seems like he's honest."

Richard Olszewski, 63, of Waterford said he also is leaning toward McCain. Olszewski said he likes McCain's position on the Iraq war, but he disagrees with the Arizona senator on the issue of immigration.

"He's a conservative, but he's willing to bend a bit," said Olszewski, a medical equipment manufacturer's representative.

Huckabee is a favorite among GOP voters motivated by faith. Thirty-eight percent said it matters if the next president is a devout Christian, the highest number among attributes.

Among that 38%, Huckabee leads Romney by a small margin. Voters who identify themselves as evangelical comprise 29% of the Republican primary vote, and they favor Huckabee almost 2-1 over Romney.

Huckabee's comments that he believes God created the Earth was a defining moment for Erica Miller, 32, of New Boston. She said she was leaning toward Romney until she heard Huckabee's declaration.

"I can't believe I heard a candidate say that. It's so refreshing," she said.

Miller said it's not that religion is so important to her in the presidential race, but moral values are. She said she likes Huckabee's straightforward conservatism, his speaking style and his clear way of answering questions.

"It's hard to tell if a politician is being honest, but my gut tells me he's more honest than most," she said.


Contact CHRIS CHRISTOFF at 517-372-8660 or christoff@freepress.com. Staff writers Tina Lam and Kathleen Gray contributed to this report.

Voters in Michigan have a chance to give victory to a candidate rated excellent on the subject of amnesty by Roy Beck of NumbersUSA.