Wednesday, November 03, 2010

LPS Mortgage Monitor Shows 7 Million Noncurrent Loans, 2 Million Homes in Foreclosures, Deteriorating Conditions

The LPS Mortgage Monitor has a nice series of 33 slides that shows delinquent loans had stabilized in the first half of 2010 but new problem loans are once again picking up. http://www.lpsvcs.com/NewsRoom/Industry ... er2010.pdf

Over 4 million homes are 90 days late or in foreclosure.

Total Delinquent and Foreclosure Rates



For a crisper Image go to the link: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/T ... 0-09+A.png

Delinquent loans still at troubling levels. Expect foreclosures to rise.

Noncurrent Loans



For a crisper Image go to the link: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/T ... 0-09+B.png

There are 7 million noncurrent loans but that is down from 8.1 million at the beginning of the year.

New Problem Loans



For a crisper Image go to the link: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/T ... 0-09+C.png

Unfortunately, things have gotten worse since July-August, just about when home prices stopped rising.

Average Days Delinquent for Homes in Foreclosure



For a crisper Image go to the link: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/T ... 0-09+D.png

That chart highlights the desperate need to speed up, not halt the foreclosure process.

Economic Conditions Deteriorating

Unfortunately, but not unexpectedly, things are getting worse since mid-summer.

Adding to the housing misery, over 2 million unemployed workers will lose benefits starting November 30 unless Congress acts to extend benefits in the lame-duck session. Don't count on it.

Furthermore, gallup surveys point to a flat Christmas season at best, so seasonal hiring may not be as good as expected. Finally, stimulus money is spent and there is no driver for jobs with inventory replenishment nearing the end.

These factors will put still more pressure on delinquent loans and foreclosures, which in turn will further pressure prices.

The housing bottom may be a lot further off than most think, in terms of time and price.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... llion.html