Thread: 2025: the end of US dominance

2025: the end of US dominance

• US intelligence: 'We can no longer call shots alone'
• European Union will be 'hobbled giant' by 2025
• Triumph of western democracy not certain

Julian Borger, diplomatic editor
guardian.co.uk, Thursday November 20 2008 19.05 GMT
The Guardian, Friday November 21 2008



The United States' leading intelligence organisation has warned that the world is entering an increasingly unstable and unpredictable period in which the advance of western-style democracy is no longer assured, and some states are in danger of being "taken over and run by criminal networks".

The global trends review, produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) every four years, represents sobering reading in Barack Obama's intray as he prepares to take office in January. The country he inherits, the report warns, will no longer be able to "call the shots" alone, as its power over an increasingly multipolar world begins to wane.

Looking ahead to 2025, the NIC (which coordinates analysis from all the US intelligence agencies), foresees a fragmented world, where conflict over scarce resources is on the rise, poorly contained by "ramshackle" international institutions, while nuclear proliferation, particularly in the Middle East, and even nuclear conflict grow more likely.

"Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed" warns that the spread of western democratic capitalism cannot be taken for granted, as it was by George Bush and America's neoconservatives.

"No single outcome seems preordained: the Western model of economic liberalism, democracy and secularism, for example, which many assumed to be inevitable, may lose its lustre – at least in the medium term," the report warns.

It adds: "Today wealth is moving not just from West to East but is concentrating more under state control," giving the examples of China and Russia.

"In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, the state's role in the economy may be gaining more appeal throughout the world."

At the same time, the US will become "less dominant" in the world – no longer the unrivalled superpower it has been since the end of the Cold War, but a "first among equals" in a more fluid and evenly balanced world, making the unilateralism of the Bush era no longer tenable.

The report predicts that over the next two decades "the multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships."

It is a conclusion that meshes with president elect Obama's stated preference for multilateralism, but the NIC findings suggest that as the years go by it could be harder for Washington to put together "coalitions of the willing" to pursue its agenda.

International organisations, like the UN, seem ill-prepared to fill the vacuum left by receding American power, at a time of multiple potential crises driven by climate change the increasing scarcity of resources like oil, food and water. Those institutions "appear incapable of rising to the challenges without concerted efforts from their leaders" it says.

In an unusually graphic illustration of a possible future, the report presents an imaginary "presidential diary entry" from October 1, 2020, that recounts a devastating hurricane, fuelled by global warming, hitting New York in the middle of the UN's annual general assembly.

"I guess we had it coming, but it was a rude shock," the unnamed president writes. "Some of the scenes were like the stuff from the World War II newsreels, only this time it was not Europe but Manhattan. Those images of the US aircraft carriers and transport ships evacuating thousands in the wake of the flooding still stick in my mind."

As he flies off for an improvised UN reception on board an aircraft carrier, the imaginary future president admits: "The cumulation of disasters, permafrost melting, lower agricultural yields, growing health problems, and the like are taking a terrible toll, much greater than we anticipated 20 years ago."

The last time the NIC published its quadrennial glimpse into the future was December 2004. President Bush had just been re-elected and was preparing his triumphal second inauguration that was to mark the high-water mark for neoconservatism. That report matched the mood of the times.

It was called Mapping the Global Future, and looked forward as far as 2020 when it projected "continued US dominance, positing that most major powers have forsaken the idea of balancing the US".

That confidence is entirely lacking from this far more sober assessment. Also gone is the belief that oil and gas supplies "in the ground" were "sufficient to meet global demand". The new report views a transition to cleaner fuels as inevitable. It is just the speed that is in question.

The NIC believes it is most likely that technology will lag behind the depletion of oil and gas reserves. A sudden transition, however, will bring problems of its own, creating instability in the Gulf and Russia.

While emerging economies like China, India and Brazil are likely to grow in influence at America's expense, the same cannot be said of the European Union. The NIC appears relatively certain the EU will be "losing clout" by 2025. Internal bickering and a "democracy gap" separating Brussels from European voters will leave the EU "a hobbled giant", unable to translate its economic clout into global influence.

Disaster diary
An imaginary diary entry written by a future US president, produced to illustrate a climate-change disaster:

Those images of US aircraft carriers evacuating thousands in the wake of flooding stick in my mind. Why must the hurricane season coincide with the UN general assembly in New York?

It's bad enough that this had to happen; it was doubly embarrassing that half the world's leaders were here to witness it. I guess the problem is we had counted on this not happening, at least not yet.

• Read the full National Intelligence Council global trends review (pdf)

http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/G ... _FINAL.pdf

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/no ... nce-agency

I don't swallow any of this.

1. I believe within the next 10 years the US will have thrown off most of the socialistic trends initiated by the Clinton, Obama and 3 Bush administrations. We have proven time and again our system works better than any other in the world if we can only keep our government at bay.
2. We can and should achieve energy independence within 15 years. If we do that, we reduce nearly half of our trade deficit (driven by oil imports), and also our reliance on the middle east. Once concerns about oil supplies from OPEC goes away, we can base our foreign policy towards the middle east on national security interests other than energy.
3. Within 10 years the EU will collapse. It won't be around in 2025. It is a flawed concept with a no foundation. Member nations are being kept in line by threats of economic sanctions. However, the EU has done nothing to enhance the quality of life of the citizens of member nations. Forced immigration of 3rd world country migrants into EU countries only makes the economic shortcomings more pronounced. I do not believe this is a sustainable model. The recent financial crisis exemplifies this as individual member nations took actions rather than rely on the EU. When the people of the member nations fully realize their governments sold them a bill of goods on the value of belonging to the EU, I believe there will political revolts in at least 2 or 3 of the major EU members forcing those governments to reconsider the value of staying in the EU. If they pull out, the whole house of cards will tumble.
4. I do not believe China and India can sustain their economies on their own. If China reverts to full-blown Communism, its economy will nosedive. Both nations rely on trade with the west. This will compel them to practice capitalism at some level, just as the European governments are realizing too much socialism has stagnated their economies.
5. There will be no global flooding nor unprecedented hurricane damage in 2025 due to climate change. That is a myth being used by leftists in Europe, Asia and the US to steal more of our resources for corrupt UN and other international activities. I also believe it is being used to undermine US sovereignty and entangle us with globalist agendas that are not in our best interest.

Once we decided to give up our manufacturing base so the greedy could produce junk products in the third world countries we began to lose much of our world power,America must be self reliant to be in power but simply we are giving that way to gain high numbers on the stock market.
Only by returning to a solid manufacturing base will America regain power, and rebuild the middle class however with our current crop of leaders I doubt it will happen.

Only by returning to a solid manufacturing base will America regain power, and rebuild the middle class however with our current crop of leaders I doubt it will happen.

I agree. There is a post elsewhere on this site by 'The Coach' talking about anarchy that says much the same thing. My take is that we have the capability to do just that. We have the human resources, educational and training systems, most raw materials, and energy sources to re-establish our industrial base, not just for economic reasons but also for national security. What we need now is national self-discipline and willpower.

As to our current crop of leaders, heck our history is full of examples of crop failure. Think of Washington D.C. as the 21st Century Dust Bowl. We overworked the 'soil', kept growing the same 'crop'. What we thought was 'fertilizer' feeding this crop turned out to be pollutants. That is no reason to sell the farm. We just need to be smarter about what we grow and how we do it. And rotate the crops (term limits comes to mind).