Rasmussen Consumer Index

70% Say Economic Conditions in Country Are Worsening

Friday, February 06, 2009

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell for the third straight day on Friday. At 58.4, the Consumer Index is up a point from a week ago, down eight points from a month ago, and is just two points above the all-time low established five days ago.

The Rasmussen Investor Index stabilized today to 62.4. That's up two points from last week, but is down eleven points from last month. Investor confidence is now four points above its record low established on December 16, 2008.

Nationally, 70% of adults believe economic conditions in the country are getting worse. Only 10% think the economy is getting better. Eighty-two percent (82%) also say that the economy is currently in a recession. Only 9% are optimistic that the recession is likely to end in the next six months.

Today’s government report on unemployment showed nearly 600,000 jobs were lost last month. The Rasmussen Employment Index, released earlier this week, had projected such an outcome as workplace confidence fell to another all-time low. Typically, a decline in the Employment Index means that the upcoming government report on job losses will be weaker than the month before.

As the economic stimulus package works its way through Congress, 50% of the nation’s voters fear that it could make things worse.

Index results are derived from nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Combining all the interviews in a given month is a useful way to look at longer term trends. Over the past two years, confidence has fallen steadily, with a sharper decline in late 2008. However, in January 2009, confidence appears to have stabilized.

For the full month of January, the Rasmussen Consumer Index rose a point to 60.8. That’s up a point from December’s 59.6 and the first monthly increase in confidence measured since last August. However, confidence is down more than 20% since September and nearly 50% over the past two years. January’s results remains at the second-lowest level ever recorded in the seven-year history of the Index. Comparisons with other indicators suggest that confidence is near the lowest levels of the past forty years or so.

The Rasmussen Investor Index gained two points in January to 64.6. As with consumer confidence, the investor totals for January look good only in comparison to the month before.



Among other changes of note:

-- In January 2007, just 27% of Americans thought the economy was in a recession. Seventy-nine percent (79%) held that view in January 2009.

-- In January 2007, 38% said the economy was in good or excellent shape. That fell to 8% in January 2009

-- When 2007 began, consumers were fairly evenly divided about whether their finances were getting better (36%) or worse (39%). In January 2009, just 18% say their finances are getting better while 52% said the opposite.

-- In January 2007, 78% of investors said their investments had made money over the previous year. In January 2009, 83% said they lost money on their investments over the past year.

In January 2007, 41% would have placed new investment money in real estate, 30% in the stock market, and only 12% in a savings account. By January 2009, 31% would put the money in real estate, 30% in a savings account, and just 17% in the stock market.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index and Investor Index are derived from nightly telephone surveys of 500 adults and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The baseline for the Index was established at 100.0 in October 2001. Readings above 100.0 indicate that confidence is higher than in the baseline month. Detailed supplemental information is available for Premium Members. Historical data for the Consumer and Investor indexes as well as attitudes about the economy and personal finances are also available to Premium Members.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index reached its highest level ever at 127.0 on January 6, 2004. The all-time low was reached on February 1, 2009 at 56.7.

The Rasmussen Investor Index reached its highest level ever at 150.9 on January 7, 2004. The lowest level ever measured was 58.5 on December 16, 2008.

The baseline for the Rasmussen Consumer Index was established at 100.0 in October 2001. At 58.4 the overall levels of economic confidence are significantly lower today than they were in the aftermath of the 9-11 terrorist attacks.

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