May 27, 2010, 4:29 PM ET

IMF Economist Argues Home Prices Still Have Far To Fall

By Jessica Holzer
Comments 7

Dour predictions about the housing market aren’t the norm anymore, as many economists have grown optimistic that home prices will begin rebounding strongly next year.

But International Monetary Fund economists Prakash Loungani has found plenty of reasons to remain glum.

Loungani, at a National Economists Club luncheon in Washington Thursday, presented his analysis of housing busts since 1970 in the countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. His prediction: Home prices will fall much farther and for much longer.

On average, the previous housing slumps lasted 18 quarters, with prices dropping 22% from peak to trough. By contrast, the current housing slump has lasted only 14 quarters, during which prices have dropped just 15%.

But the latest boom was so much bigger than the previous ones that it’s logical to anticipate an even more brutal downturn, Loungani argued. Prices rose 113% over 41 quarters, compared with 39% average price increase over 39 quarters seen in the previous booms. Loungani likened the current cycle to a roller coaster which has roared up a steep hump and now needs to come down again.

“A lot of adjustment has taken place in house prices, so we shouldn’t discount that. But it’s true that we shouldn’t declare victory too soon. We’ve now had a fresh shock from what’s happening in Europe,â€