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From Iraq shrine's rubble, civil war threat emerges
If one man can be credited, until now, with keeping Iraq from civil war, it is the bearded grand old man of the Shiite religion in Iraq, the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. When he came out of seclusion Wednesday after the bombing of one of the most holy Shiite shrines — urging protests, but no retaliation — it seemed a promising omen.

But Sistani's entreaties, for once, couldn't stop the wave of violence, which has included revenge killings of Sunni clerics, the torching of some Sunni mosques and the slaying of three journalists from the TV network Al-Arabiya. As President Bush also appealed for calm Thursday, the questions at the forefront were crystal clear: Is this civil war? And does it threaten the whole U.S. enterprise in Iraq?

The shrine bombing might well be the tipping point insurgents have long sought. It came at the worst time: amid delicate negotiations to form a government of national unity. The U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, has been relentlessly cajoling Iraq's three main groups — Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds — to work together. Though Shiites dominated December's elections, reflecting their 60% share of population, the other two won enough seats to gain a voice.

But the violence has persuaded the main Sunni bloc to pull out of negotiations, confirming their fears Shiites want to punish them for years of brutal dominance under Saddam Hussein, and to keep them from power and a share of Iraq's oil wealth.

The violence highlights the most serious danger that has been lurking, with too little U.S. attention: sectarian divisions in Iraq's armed forces. The Bush administration's drumbeat has been that U.S. forces will stand down as Iraqi forces stand up. But the forces have largely divided along religious lines — and are helping fan the flames of civil war.

Private militias, including the Shiite Badr Brigades and the Kurdish peshmerga, haven't disbanded. Members of the Badr Brigades are also part of the Iraqi armed forces, giving them a double loyalty. Reports of torture centers within the Interior Ministry, and Shiite death squads in official uniforms, underscore the problem.

The U.S. focus has to be on getting better control. It might already be too late. On Monday, Khalilzad threatened to cut U.S. funding for Iraq's security services unless the new Iraqi government appoints "non-sectarian" ministers of interior, defense and intelligence. But that led to charges that Khalilzad had somehow encouraged the shrine bombing.

Options are further limited because the United States has handed power to Iraqis — and an Iraqi government can ask U.S. forces to leave. Even so, a reassessment is overdue of how Iraqi forces are manned and trained, perhaps with international help.

For now, Sistani remains the best hope for rescuing Iraq from civil war — but this time it's not clear whether even he can do so.