Thread: Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress

Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress

September 12, 20185:48 AM ET

President Trump's poll numbers are starting to dip at exactly the wrong time. A new NPR/Marist poll finds Trump's approval rating at 39 percent.

In a troubling sign for Republicans less than two months before November's elections, Democrats' advantage on the question of which party Americans are more likely to vote for in November is ballooning, according to a new NPR/Marist poll.

The gap has widened to 12 percentage points, up from 7 in July — and largely because of voters in the Midwest. They have swung 13 points in Democrats' direction since July. That Midwestern shift is consistent with what Marist has found in statewide polls conducted for NBC in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota that showed Trump's support there starting to erode.

"Every way we are looking at the data, the same general pattern is emerging," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "The Midwest is an area that is getting restless about what they hoped was going to occur and what they feel is not occurring."

Trump has waged trade wars with several countries, aiming to renegotiate deals and has instituted tariffs on imports that have been met with retaliatory tariffs on exports. Many of those have taken a toll on Midwestern farmers, for example. And some automakers have come out against Trump's moves on car imports, hitting Trump with some tough headlines.

And that appears to be sticking to the GOP now.

"Republicans have not only been fairly silent in opposition to the president," Miringoff said, "but they've been driving very hard in the Senate when it comes to his Supreme Court nominee. Congressional Republicans are buying into Trump for November. In terms of brand, they look totally in lockstep with the president — and that has become extremely clear to voters."

Overall in the poll, half of voters (50 percent) said they are more likely to vote for the Democrat in their congressional district over the Republican (38 percent). In July, the Democratic edge was 47 to 40 percent.

It's the largest gap on this question, known as the congressional ballot, since December 2017 when Marist showed Democrats with a 13-point advantage. The lead also similar to Democrats' advantage on the question in 2006, the last time they took back the House.

Trump approval dangerously low

President Trump's approval rating is below 40 percent in the poll. Just 39 percent said they approve of the job the president is doing.

The rating is unchanged from the last Marist poll in July. But it's the third poll this week to show Trump below 40 percent amid an explosive new book from journalist Bob Woodward detailing chaos in the Trump White House and an op-ed in The New York Times from what the paper describes as a senior official who writes that there is a "resistance" within the Trump administration to save the country from the president.

The GOP's and the president's weaknesses continue to be in the suburbs and now with Midwestern voters. They retain advantages in rural areas, the South and with white, non-college-educated voters and white evangelicals. But even in rural areas and small towns, there has been some slippage from July.

"It's not that Democrats are going to carry rural America," Miringoff stressed, "but [Republicans are] not performing the way the president needs them to."

In small towns, for example, there was an 11-point swing toward Democrats, and there was a 6-point drop-off among rural voters on the congressional ballot.

The president's approval rating in the suburbs is just 34 percent. And in those same suburbs, Democrats enjoy a whopping 56-to-34-percent advantage over Republicans on who Americans are more likely to vote for.

That is particularly problematic for Republicans, because many of the key House races for control of the House run through the suburbs.

There is also a massive gender gap. Men approve of the job Trump is doing by a 50-to-42-percent margin. But women, who are fueling Democratic hopes in these midterm elections, disapprove of his job 62-to-28 percent.

In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won 41 percent of women, according to exit polls.

"This is an election about gender," Miringoff said, pointing out that party identification and race are still major factors, but the gender numbers are much bigger than might be expected after 2016.

What happens when approval slips

The two other polls out this week that showed the president slipping below 40 percent were CNN and Quinnipiac. CNN had Trump at 37 percent and Quinnipiac 38 percent.

Slightly earlier polls which meet NPR's polling standards — from Gallup, YouGov (43 percent), Ipsos (42 percent) and Selzer (43 percent) — had Trump at or slightly above 40 percent.

For context, let's look at some history to see where that ranks and what it could mean for the GOP's chances in two months. Just one president since polling began was below 40 percent in the last Gallup poll before a president's first midterm since polling began: Harry Truman in 1946. (Gallup has the most historical data on presidential approval ratings.)

Just 33 percent of Americans approved of the job Truman was doing less than a year after the end of World War II. His party wound up losing 45 House and 12 Senate seats. Truman's 12 Senate seat losses remain the worst for a president since at least 1934.

It's hard to compare to just one president, however. So widening out the lens, there have been plenty of presidents who were below 50 percent before their first midterm. And on average, their parties lost 41 House seats and 6 Senate seats.

A performance like that for Republicans this year would give Democrats control of both the House and Senate. (Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to gain control of the House and 2 seats to take the Senate.)

Every election, though, has its unique factors. Not every president below 50 percent had as favorable a Senate map as Republicans do. Not every president below 50 percent had structural House district advantages because of redistricting or the fact that the opposition party has holed up in cities. And, since the Civil War, the country arguably hasn't been as polarized politically as it is today.

But, overall, first-term midterms are not kind to the president's party. (On average, they have lost 28 House and 3 Senate seats dating back to Truman.)

And it's even worse when the country thinks the president isn't doing a very good job.

"Presidents' approval ratings, when they are low in midterm elections cause havoc for the party in power," Miringoff noted. And Trump's approval rating, he added, is "casting a cloud over the GOP Congress."

Worst Performances By A President's Party In His First Midterm (sorted by most to least House losses, based on Gallup approvals)

2010 — Obama 45% approval – Lost 63 House, Lost 6 Senate
1994 — Clinton 48% approval – Lost 52 House, Lost 8 Senate
1974 — Ford 54% approval – Lost 48 House, Lost 5 Senate
1966 — LBJ 44% approval – Lost 47 House, Lost 4 Senate
1946 — Truman 33% approval — Lost 45 House, Lost 12 Senate
1982 — Reagan 42% approval – Lost 26 House, Gained 1 Senate
1954 — Eisenhower 61% approval – Lost 18 House, Lost 1 Senate
1978 – Carter 49% approval – Lost 15 House, Lost 3 Senate

1970 — Nixon 58% approval – Lost 12 House, Gained 2 Senate
1990 — HW 54% approval – Lost 8 House, Lost 1 Senate
1962 — JFK 61% approval – Lost 4 House, Gained 3 Senate
2002 — Bush 63% approval – Gained 8 House, 2 Senate

The NPR/Marist poll was conducted Sept. 5th through Sunday. It surveyed 777 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/64681...ol-of-congress

So tell me, how is that "hold Trump's feet to the fire" and "hold Trump accountable", and accusing him of "broken promises", calling him a "liar" and "betrayer" and lest we forget that "rule of law" and "no one is above the law" mantra working out for you?

Republicans need to pull together and put every thought, every word, every spare minute we have into winning these mid-terms with the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, which is very simple. We have one chance to save this country, because of Donald Trump, that chance is lost if we don't win the mid-terms. Nothing else matters at this point, except winning these mid-term elections for Republicans so we not only keep control of Congress, but grow seats so we have the control we need in the Senate to pass the legislation we want and need to fix our country.

Republicans are the minority party in the United States. There are many more Democrats than Republicans. We don't win Presidential elections without some Democrats and a lot of Independents, who usually vote Democrat. Every negative comment about Trump, right or wrong, translates into Democrats and Independents proceeding to vote with Democrats in Congressional elections, even though most of them will still vote Trump in 2020. Most of these voters normally vote Democrat. They only vote for Republicans when they're voting for a Republican President or are really really mad at Democrats. That is why it is so hard for candidates of the same party of any President, but especially Republicans to win mid-terms when their party is in the White House.

These polls are probably wrong, but it's still the poll mantra which causes a lot of people to think they should vote with the poll on election day or stay home, discouraged.

We can't have discouraged voters in November 2018. We must have enthusiastic voters marching to the polls to elect Republicans to support our hard-working dedicated President Trump and his Agenda to fix our country for all Americans.

SAVE OUR NATION. VOTE REPUBLICAN IN 2018!!!!

Judy wrote (excerpt):

So tell me, how is that "hold Trump's feet to the fire" and "hold Trump accountable", and accusing him of "broken promises", calling him a "liar" and "betrayer" and lest we forget that "rule of law" and "no one is above the law" mantra working out for you?

So in your opinion the truth can be a mighty nasty inconvenience, huh?

Yes, in my opinion, your particular self-serving version of it is very nasty and it is far more than an "inconvenience", it's dangerous. See, to me, your negative version of a President who has done more and tried more to help US than any President in our lifetimes is not a "liar", is not a "betrayer", has not "broken his promises", and has committed no crime, and to claim otherwise is fundamentally FALSE.

The truth is this President is the only President in our lifetimes who gave a damn about our real issues including illegal and excess legal immigration, he has tried everything except Judy's Plan B, so far, to help US solve this problem. He's been blocked by Courts, he's been blocked by Congress and his ability to succeed even to some degree in Congress has been blocked by DemoQuacks and Trump Haters, some of them Republicans, if you can believe that!!

I don't know if you're a Trump Hater or not, but your posts are Hate Trump posts. You call it "holding Trump accountable", "holding his feet to the fire". No, that isn't what you're doing, you're throwing him into a barrel, pouring gasoline on him and lighting the match, forgetting that when you hurt him, you're hurting our cause.

Is it because you don't understand our political system or is it because displaying your personal dislike for this President is your mission in life hoping to convince others to dislike him as much as you do? I don't know, but whatever it is you're trying to accomplish, the only thing you may end up accomplishing is costing the Republicans control of Congress which kills any hope or prayer we have to fix our immigration laws and gain the appropriations we need to beef up interior enforcement, build the wall so many want, and rapidly deport all these illegal aliens in our country.

In business we call it .... counter-productive because they are diametrically-opposed objectives. In otherwords, you can't try to destroy Trump and expect to do anything to solve our illegal immigration problem, and I have not even a guess as to why you or anyone else thought you could.