Thread: Endless Afghanistan? US-Afghan agreement would keep troops in place and funds flowing

Endless Afghanistan? US-Afghan agreement would keep troops in place and funds flowing, perhaps indefinitely

Andrew Burton / Reuters

U.S. Army soldiers with Charlie Company, 36th Infantry Regiment, 1st Armored Division set up a supportive position during a mission near Command Outpost Pa'in Kalay in Maiwand District, Kandahar Province in February.

By Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent
KABUL – While many Americans have been led to believe the war in Afghanistan will soon be over, a draft of a key U.S.-Afghan security deal obtained by NBC News shows the United States is prepared to maintain military outposts in Afghanistan for many years to come, and pay to support hundreds of thousands of Afghan security forces.
The wide-ranging document, still unsigned by the United States and Afghanistan, has the potential to commit thousands of American troops to Afghanistan and spend billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars.
The document outlines what appears to be the start of a new, open-ended military commitment in Afghanistan in the name of training and continuing to fight al-Qaeda. The war in Afghanistan doesn’t seem to be ending, but renewed under new, scaled-down U.S.-Afghan terms.
“The Parties acknowledge that continued U.S. military operations to defeat al-Qaeda and its affiliates may be appropriate and agree to continue their close cooperation and coordination toward that end,” the draft states.
According to a document obtained by NBC News, the war in Afghanistan may not be over for years to come. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

The 25-page “Security and Defense Cooperation Agreement Between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan” is a sweeping document, vague in places, highly specific in others, defining everything from the types of future missions U.S. troops would be allowed to conduct in Afghanistan, to the use of radios and the taxation of American soldiers and contractors.
The bilateral security agreement will be debated this week in Kabul by around 2,500 village elders, academics and officials in a traditional Loya Jirga. While the Loya Jirga is strictly consultative, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said he won’t sign it without the Jirga’s approval.
The copy of the draft -- the full text is available here -- is dated July 25, 2013. As a working draft, it is particularly revealing because it shows the back and forth negotiations, as U.S. and Afghan officials added words and struck out paragraphs. The changes are marked by annotations still revealed in the text. The document is a work in progress. US officials say there have been more changes since July. The draft, however, does indicate the scope of this possible agreement with major implications for Washington, Kabul, U.S. troops and the continuation of America’s longest war.
Taken as a whole, the document describes a basic U.S.-Afghan exchange. Afghanistan would allow Washington to operate military bases to train Afghan forces and conduct counter-terrorism operations against al-Qaeda after the current mission ends in 2014. For that foothold in this volatile mountain region wedged between Pakistan and Iran, the United States would agree to sustain and equip Afghanistan's large security force, which the government in Kabul currently cannot afford. The deal, according to the text, would take effect on Jan. 1, 2015 and “shall remain in force until the end of 2024 and beyond.” It could be terminated by either Washington or Kabul with two years advance written notice.
There is however what U.S. officials believe is a contradiction in the July draft, which would effectively ask American troops to provide training and confront al-Qaeda from the confines of bases. While it says operations against al-Qaeda may be necessary, it also says US troops will not be allowed to make arrests or enter Afghan homes.
“No detention or arrest shall be carried out by the United States forces. The United States forces shall not search any homes or other real estate properties,” it says.
“[The contradiction] was a matter of serious consternation at the highest levels” of the Obama administration over the weekend, according to one senior defense official. “It is the one remaining issue that could ultimately kill the deal." However, US officials believe that in a more recent draft, which was circulated among key Pentagon officials and US lawmakers on Monday, the US has won its position on this point.
The document doesn’t specifically say how many U.S. and NATO troops would remain in Afghanistan beyond 2014. Afghan officials tell NBC News they hope it will be 10 to 15 thousand. U.S. officials tell NBC News the number is closer to seven to eight thousand, with an additional contribution from NATO. Factoring in troop rotations, home leave, and breaks between deployments, the service of tens of thousands of American troops would be required to maintain a force of seven to eight thousand for a decade or longer. The anticipated costs would likely run into the billions quickly.
Afghan officials tell NBC NEWS the agreement is critical to Afghanistan’s future stability. Without ongoing military assistance, training and funding, those officials say the government could collapse and Afghanistan would enter a civil war. If the agreement passes, the draft says Washington would commit to a long -term, indefinite military involvement in this land-locked Asian nation.
A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council did not comment on the draft version of the agreement, but said that "the President is still reviewing options from his national security team and has not made a decision about a possible U.S. presence after 2014."
The agreement circulating this week is unlikely to be the last. It first must pass through the Loya Jirga, then go onto parliament for final approval. “We’re looking at 60-days or more” before the US and Afghanistan sign any agreement, defense officials said.

Here are highlights of the July draft of the bi-lateral agreement:

American bases
While the document specifically says the United States would not seek “permanent bases” in Afghanistan, the US military would have “access to and use of the agreed facilities and areas.” Some of these areas would be for the “exclusive use” of US troops.
“Afghanistan hereby authorizes United States forces to exercise all rights and authorities within the agreed facilities and areas that are necessary for their use, operation, defense, or control, including the right to undertake new construction works,” the document says.
US troops would be allowed to carry weapons, wear uniforms and guard the perimeter of those areas. The agreement does not say how many “exclusive use” sites there would be in Afghanistan. The United States also would also be permitted to keep vehicles and aircraft in Afghanistan, take off and land from Afghan soil, and fly though Afghan airspace. The facilities would be provided the US government “rent free,” but significant costs would mount in other ways.

U.S. payments
The draft agreement says the Afghan government should “eventually” pay for all of its defense and security personal. But until then, “so long as the strategic partnership agreement so provides, the United States shall have an obligation to seek funds on a yearly basis to support the training, equipping, advising and sustaining of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), so that Afghanistan can independently secure and defend itself against internal and external threats, and help ensure that terrorists never again encroach on Afghan soil and threaten Afghanistan, the region, and the world.” The specific amount of payment is not stated. The money would be “managed by relevant Afghan institutions.”

Sticking points
The document shows a long and hard series of negotiations, particularly on the issue of legal jurisdiction. The draft initially insisted that U.S. military personnel be subject to Afghan laws and, if accused of a crime, be tried in Afghan courts. This section in the July draft is crossed out. Afghan officials tell NBC NEWS the jurisdiction dispute appears to have been overcome, with U.S. troops only being subject to American laws.

Endless Afghanistan?
The document suggests Afghan negotiators want a long-term U.S. presence, with U.S. forces and contractors providing intelligence, training and funding, but also to keep American forces as confined as possible. It shows Afghans want to keep their U.S. partners, but on their terms. It also suggests the United States is not confident that without a long-term commitment, the Afghan government can bring stability or effectively fight terrorism.

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New Afghanistan Deal: Obama to Apologize; US Troops There Indefinitely



Tuesday, 19 Nov 2013 01:48 PM
By Joseph Schwerdt and Newsmax Wires

President Barack Obama will apologize to the Afghan people under a security agreement that will keep U.S. troops in Afghanistan well beyond 2014 at a cost of billions to American taxpayers.

NBC News has obtained a draft of the security pact that shows the United States would pay to maintain multiple military outposts in Afghanistan indefinitely and pay to support hundreds of thousands of Afghan security forces.

Also, Reuters is reporting that Obama has agreed to write a letter of apology to the Afghan people acknowledging mistakes made during the "war on terror" and the suffering of the Afghan people.

The letter is to be presented along with the draft at the meeting of tribal elders that is due to start on Thursday and run for several days.

Under the pact, U.S. troops will have sole control over Bagram Air Field north of Kabul, but will share facilities on eight Afghan-run bases throughout the country, Afghan lawmaker Khaled Pashtun told The Associated Press.

National Security adviser Rangin Dadfar Spanta told lawmakers at a weekend briefing that 10,000 to 16,000 residual U.S. and NATO service personnel would stay behind in Afghanistan after 2014, lawmaker Shah Gul Rezayee told the AP. They would mentor and train the Afghan security forces, she said.

The independent Afghan Analysts Network, said Karzai also won a key security agreement from the United States that promised joint action — political, economic or military — against anyone attacking Afghanistan or giving safe haven to Afghan insurgents seeking to unseat the government.

The last-minute deal was reached just two days before Afghan leaders gather to debate the pact. It will contain provisions to give U.S. troops immunity from Afghan law and allow them to enter Afghan homes in exceptional circumstances.

President Obama has frustrated Congressional leaders with his refusal to release specifics about the U.S. presence in Afghanistan beyond next year. But many Americans were led to believe the president had intended to pull all troops out after 10 years of war.

As of Tuesday, at least 2,153 members of the U.S. military had died in Afghanistan since the U.S.-led invasion in late 2001, according to The Associated Press.

The president also has gotten heat for apologizing for America on the international stage. He apologized after U.S. soldiers burned Qurans in Afghanistan. And he has apologized for bombing Japan to end World War II and for U.S. actions in the Middle East and Africa.

On the domestic front this month, the president told Americans he was sorry for the botched rollout of Obamacare.

Aimal Faizi, a spokesman for Afghan President Hamid Karzai, said the agreement was partly owed Obama's promise to write the letter to the Afghan people acknowledging mistakes made during the 12-year war."Both sides agreed that Obama send a letter ... assuring the president and the people of Afghanistan that the right to enter into Afghan homes by U.S. forces and the extraordinary circumstances will not be misused," Faizi told reporters.
"The whole idea of having a letter was to acknowledge the suffering of the Afghan people and the mistakes of the past. That was the only thing that satisfied the president," Faizi added.A major sticking point that could scuttle the agreement says U.S. forces staying in Afghanistan will not be tried in local courts for any crimes they commit.

Spanta told lawmakers if the U.S. doesn't get jurisdiction over its soldiers and civilian personnel, it won't sign the agreement, and it won't leave any U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan when international combat troops withdraw at the end of 2014.

Divisions run deep in Afghanistan over conceding the right to prosecute U.S. soldiers for crimes committed in the country.

Afghans are still angry over several incidents involving international troops, including the 2012 accidental burning of hundreds of copies of the Quran; a shooting spree that year by a U.S. soldier in southern Afghanistan that killed 16 people, mostly women and children; and the unintentional deaths of civilians by wayward bombs.

While Afghans may be divided over the agreement, they are also pragmatic and know they need international forces in the country, said Kabul University professor Hamidullah Faruqi.

"They will guarantee our stability. They will show to our neighbors that Afghans are not alone, and the financial aid that will come along with this agreement will benefit Afghans, and Afghans know this," he said.

Pashtun, from southern Kandahar, where a Taliban insurgency flourishes said Washington is right to demand jurisdiction over its troops. "Our justice system is still under construction ... Even Afghans don't trust it yet," he told the AP in a telephone interview.

Pashtun said the government "is so weak" that it hasn't been able to arrest a southern warlord accused of killing 117 civilians.

The Bilateral Security Agreement is a sweeping document that incorporates the usual Status of Forces Protection Agreement, which the United States signs with every country where its troops are stationed. The document covers everything from taxation and customs duties to a promise to protect Afghanistan from hostile action.

The Afghan government on Tuesday declared a six-day public holiday to tighten security during a national conference that will vote on a draft agreement allowing U.S. troops to stay in the nation after 2014.

The conference, known as the Loya Jirga, will begin Nov. 21 in Kabul and bring together 3,000 Afghan tribal, political and intellectual leaders. The security agreement with the United States will go to both houses of the Afghan parliament for approval if it is passed by the Loya Jirga, President Hamid Karzai said Nov. 16.

The declaration of the holiday comes three days after a Taliban suicide car bomb near the venue for the Loya Jirga killed 13 people and wounded dozens more.

"The Taliban attack will not affect the meeting, but our meeting will certainly affect them," Jawed Munadi, a delegate to the Loya Jirga, said in an interview. "Our debates are based on how to prevent such attacks and maintain security in Afghanistan through the U.S. and Afghan agreement."

Information from the Associated Press and Reuters was used in this report.

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