Thread: Charles Biderman (of TrimTabs) Central Banks: "In The End, They Will Get What They De

Biderman On Central Banks: "In The End, They Will Get What They Deserve"



Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/12/2012 18:07 -0400

"We live in interesting times" is the understated introduction to one of Charles Biderman (of TrimTabs) more concerning and stunned rants. With the value of all stocks still around double the 2009 lows yet today's incomes are barely growing, and realistically - with all the headwinds we face - there is no hope for rapid growth in wages & salaries anytime soon, the avuncular analyst feels the need to warn all that "stock prices are due to plunge". Following a little stock market history, Charles notes that while wages and salaries in the US have quadrupled over the past 30 years, the value of all US stocks has risen 18 times. In 1982, stocks relative to wages & salaries were 0.6-to-1 and now the ratio is north of 2.6-to-1. This is explained by an interesting discussion of the excess wage growth over spending argument (once basic human needs are met - and a bigger house) which prompts a brief interlude on wages & salaries as 'the' trim-tab (marginal mover) for stocks. Implicitly then, "How can stock markets be this high if the real economy is barely growing?" - the obvious answer is Central banks are tying to solve all the world's problems via the printing press and as the Bay-Area bad-boy notes, the central banks may be the largest market participant but they are not the only one and in the end "they will get what they deserve" as stocks drop to 2009 lows.



Biderman On Central Banks: "In The End, They Will Get What They Deserve" | ZeroHedge

Biderman On Europe: "Germany Must Say No To Greece, Spain, & Italy"


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/18/2012 20:48 -0400

After offering his condolences for the loss today of Dan Dorfman, Charles Biderman, of TrimTabs, takes the Greeks (and Germans) to task. Charles remains long-term bearish on European stocks (and the big US banks). Greeks, it appears from Charles perspective, want to stay in the Euro but on easier terms. This, at first glance, perplexes the less-than-sanguine Sausalitan, given the disastrous economic situation they remain in. However, on reflection, Biderman realizes that the simple fact is that the Greeks like the ability to borrow money to pay their bills and even better, never having to repay the loan - which makes perfect sense.

If the Germans are willing to keep lending to Greece, even if most goes to repay old loans, then Greeks keep getting some new cash - which would disappear if the Greeks left the Euro. This situation, he opines, would seem 'horrible' as "Greeks might have to go and do something for a living and even pay some taxes". Concluding on the three types of creditors that exist, it is little wonder that the Greeks, in their ponzi state, would want to keep the dream alive and hold the M.A.D. grenade over Germany's head just a little longer.

The brutal truth is that Greece (and Spain and Italy) will take as much cash as they can until there is no more given and then-and-only-then will they act for change. The disastrous end-result will be the same as if Germany left the Euro and first mover advantage in this case may well prove exceptionally valuable.



Biderman On Europe: "Germany Must Say No To Greece, Spain, & Italy" | ZeroHedge

Biderman And Bianco Berate Bernanke, Buy Bullion, And Batter Bullishness




Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2012 12:05 -0400

Critical of the market's reaction to the 'no new QE' news, Biderman and Bianco wholeheartedly believe yesterday's plunge was entirely due to the fact that the 'Bernanke Put' - that we have become so conditioned to expect - did not appear at the levels many expected. Despite a federal deficit of $100 billion per month, it seems the Fed is now in agreement with Biancerman that US growth is limping along at best but notably Jim Bianco believes the fiscal cliff will end up more of a bump in the road as he sees politicians being forced to agree to extend or roll-back (maybe at the very last minute) offsetting the abyss. However, with the debt ceiling looking like it will be hit before the election, it will be interesting to see what political parlance is used if-and-or-when Geithner borrows from the trust funds to keep the government going this time (or not). Positive on Gold longer-term, Bianco sees it like other markets: "Gold is a junky that has not got its money fix" and the only reason to believe Gold is a sell is if you think CBs are done - they are not! Finally the two discuss the fact that 'nobody wants to be bearish anymore' when looking at sentiment surveys - setting up a 'trap-door' for the market.

The discussion of sentiment and the fascinating psychological shift to an aversion to bearishness starts at 4:20:



Biderman And Bianco Berate Bernanke, Buy Bullion, And Batter Bullishness | ZeroHedge

Related: http://www.alipac.us/f19/trimtabs-bi...onanza-257428/

Biderman On The Constitution And 'Special Interest' Democracy


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/06/2012 10:05 -0400

• Charles Biderman
• TrimTabs

As politicians have become more and addicted to the campaign contributions of 'special interest' groups, or as Charles Biderman of TrimTabs analogizes: "The pusher owns the user", so the representatives-of-the-people are no longer. The only solution Charles sees is to change our representative form of government as we "no longer have a government of the people, for the people, by the people". In a July-4th-week inspired rant, Biderman extends from the Gettysburg address to constitutional expectations (and representative law-driven rule as opposed to military force) concluding what many know and yet are afraid to lean against: our government is "of the special interest groups, for the special interest groups, and by the special interest groups".




Biderman On The Constitution And 'Special Interest' Democracy | ZeroHedge

Biderman Blasts The Bernanke Put And Questions QE-Hopers


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/10/2012 11:54 -040

Scoffing at the smugness of a CNBC talking head suggesting he is long-term bullish because of the Bernanke Put, TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman empirically analyses the effects of QEs-past and just as we have noted again and again - highlights the fact that without at least a 15% drop in stocks, Bernanke will not ride to the rescue. Based on his analysis of wage and salary growth, he believes the US economy is now starting to contract in line with what is going on in Europe and the rest of the emerging world. Earlier this year in the US, portfolio managers hoped and prayed that what looked like rapid growth was real, "It Wasnt!" and, as we have noted, Charles adds that with earnings season starting we will see future guidance cut and this will kick the leg out from the bullish stool - leaving only the hope for another QE flush to save us. However, with the effects of Bernanke's beneficence diminishing with each round, he suspects that we will be lucky to see a 10% rally on NEW QE.



Biderman Blasts The Bernanke Put And Questions QE-Hopers | ZeroHedge

Biderman Demands New 'Non-Parasitic' Constitutional Convention


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/11/2012 20:31 -0400

• Charles Biderman
• TrimTabs

"If we continue forward in the direction we are headed, what lies ahead is an almost certain major economic calamity" is the subtle introduction from the Bay-Area baddest bull-crusher. Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, is angry - and you wouldn't like him when he's angry - as he believes "it no longer matter who wins elections, because the special interest groups control, and in some cases own, the representatives" and the US needs a new constitutional convention. He has touched on this before but his ire is very clear here as he sees the "special interest groups as parasites" and believes that due to the rapid changes in social media technologies that a new way of governing ourselves is possible (though we still doubt it). "The road ahead to a new constitutional convention will not be easy," he concludes, given the big bucks will try and convince us they are necessary, but it appears Lewis Black's avuncular alter ego is ready to take 'em on.



Biderman Demands New 'Non-Parasitic' Constitutional Convention | ZeroHedge

Biderman: "The Most Damage Is Caused By Those Who Are Not As Smart As They Think They Are"



Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2012 23:06 -0400

It is not often we double-dip in the Sausalitan's soliloquies but tonight's glorious truthiness from Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, is worth the price of admission. After explaining that the only way he could be any more bearish is to be double-levered - and that he believes that besides "believing in miracles" this market will see the March 2009 lows once the market-rigging is fully exposed, he makes probably the most clarifying statement we have heard regarding our central-planners-in-chief. With regards to Messrs. Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama: "The most damage is caused by those who are not as smart as they think they are."

They continue to believe they are smart enough to fix all our financial problems (and Europe's - if they would just listen to Timmay) by building a bridge over the recession - thanks to asset-buying and ZIRP. "The only problem is we are running out of bridge and are nowhere near recovery" is how he sees it and reflecting on the massive gains that have been made on short-dated Treasuries as the Fed (who is the one buying them) extends the ZIRP horizon - it is clear that this is nothing but a huge Ponzi scheme.



Biderman: "The Most Damage Is Caused By Those Who Are Not As Smart As They Think They Are" | ZeroHedge

Biderman Batters 'Believe-Me'-Draghi


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/26/2012 20:24 -0400

• Charles Biderman
• Recession
• TrimTabs
• Yen

Somewhat stunned by the market's exuberant reaction to Mario Draghi's 'Believe Me' speech this morning, Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, sees the slow-motion train-wreck that is the European crisis speeding up and rapidly running out of track. Stepping back to look again at the European big picture; Biderman sees a bunch of economies whose citizens are making less money than before (and even before the current recessions European economies were not generating enough taxable income to pay current government expenses).
Now, a worsening recession means there will be less taxable income for governments to fund ever growing entitlements. Add that to a huge pile of dismal bad debts, and Charles sees the European crisis as "not a solvable problem the way the world works today." Neither Draghi nor any of the bankers even bothers to talk about the real problem of not enough regional income and too much government spending.
Draghi’s only solution is some form of money printing. "Printing money to pay bills maybe will work over the short term. But long term, it cannot"; if money printing works in the real world why not print and give every one a billion Dollars, Euros or Yen? While governments will do anything to maintain the status quo (and avoid the tough times ahead), Charles succinctly reminds that, "the road to hell is paved with good intentions."



Biderman Batters 'Believe-Me'-Draghi | ZeroHedge