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10-04-2009, 01:11 PM #1
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US unemployment reflects downside of short-termist stimulus
US unemployment reflects downside of short-termist stimulus policies
September's job data makes it clear that the US economy is still in a record-breaking hole.
By Martin Hutchinson, breakingviews.com
Published: 5:56PM BST 02 Oct 2009
The headline number – a 263,000 drop in non-farm payrolls when analysts expected a 180,000 fall – was just the centrepiece of depressing labour-market landscape.
The rate of job losses had been slowing fairly dramatically from 741,000 in January, suggesting the end of the recession might be at hand. But the increase from the 201,000 drop in August suggests the end of the improvements.
'There is more bad news. It is easier to cut or add hours than headcount. The average work week had ticked up to 33.1 hours in August. It dropped back to 33.0 in September. That isn't what should be happening this far into the longest US recession since the Second World War.
Statistical mavens will be depressed by the preliminary annual benchmark revision of the size of the workforce. It showed 824,000, of 0.6pc, fewer non-farm employees than in the previous year's count. If the new estimate were put into the current calculation, the unemployment rate would be well above 10pc.
An economy losing 263,000 jobs monthly – 2.4pc of the workforce annually – is just not in recovery. Indeed, the lost income and increased insecurity are creating a steep barrier to growth in consumption.
And in the long run, such high levels of unemployment can only depress living standards and reduce the country's wealth. Neither monetary nor fiscal stimulus is a source of long-term prosperity. The US economy is now discovering their downside.
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