Searching times for Japan's new premier


By Peter J Brown
Asia Times
Dec 16, 2009


After just three months in office, Japan's Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama finds himself in a "zone of indecision" amid mounting pressure on a range of key issues.

At a meeting late last week in Washington DC, senior United States officials informed a ranking member of the small People's New Party - part of the coalition government in Tokyo - that a US government budget-related deadline looms and that if Hatoyama does not make a decision by Friday about relocation of the Futenma military base, the US will be compelled to abandon widely discussed plans to move 8,000 United States Marines from Okinawa to Guam.

Hatoyama, according to reports in the Japanese media on Tuesday, is stalling and has delayed making a decision until May. Reports said Japan would continue with preparations to move the base but also explore alternative relocation sites. The plan, agreed upon under a 2006 deal between the US and Japan, is to relocate Futenma to a less crowded part of northern Okinawa, but Hatoyama has said the new site could be changed, perhaps even off the southern island.

Besides the Okinawa base controversy, Japan's infectious economic weakness and even China are contributing to the end of Hatoyama's honeymoon. A lack of coherency infused with a certain lack of discipline is not helping matters.

The heat is on and the end of Hatoyama's honeymoon is close. This does not mean that Hatoyama's political future hangs by a thread. Any dissatisfaction with Hatoyama and his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) as a whole has been mild. If dissent does become more widespread, it will do little more than mark the start of a new era of relative instability in Tokyo featuring political winds that change direction quickly and constantly.

Despite the presence of seasoned politicians in the DPJ such as the secretary general, Ichiro Ozawa, the party can best be described as a bold social and political experiment, and perhaps more of a proposition than a deeply rooted political party.

Hatoyama's task at this stage is to preserve party unity and maintain the coalition government, in particular by keeping the more assertive Social Democratic Party (SDP) on board; this requires a delicate balancing act. After all, if Hatoyama is to succeed, particularly with his campaign to transform Japan by overhauling the bureaucracy and essentially scrapping the way it has been governed for the past 50 years, a well-organized machine must be activated with defined objectives and firm discipline in the ranks.

Consider what the chief cabinet secretary, Hirofumi Hirano, was wrestling with in early December. It was up to Hirano to rein in Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa after Kitazawa irritated the SDP with remarks about the sheer impossibility of relocating the Futenma air station to Guam. This took place as Hirano was scrambling in advance of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping's mid-December trip to Japan. China's request for a meeting between Xi and Emperor Akihito had initially been denied by Hatoyama on the basis that it would violate a long-standing constitutional ban on any activities by the emperor that might be seen as the least bit political.

Only after Hirano's persistent efforts - he repeatedly contacted the Imperial Household Agency - was the meeting with Xi approved because it was deemed of great importance to Japan-China relations.

Then, Hatoyama changed his mind. "This is a matter of improving relations between Japan and a foreign country, and so the expression 'political use' does not apply," said Hatoyama.

Hatoyama finally gave his approval and the meeting was due to take place on Tuesday, but he allowed himself to wander into a "zone of indecision" where the outcome was uncertain.

Whereas Hatoyama should be calling the shots, he is starting to look as if he is being propelled along by the flow of events rather than making things happen. As his actions begin to be questioned, confidence is diminished and this could prove damaging in a political sense.

The Liberal Democratic Party was quick to pounce in this instance. Shigeru Ishiba, the LDP's policy chief, told Kyodo News that the meeting with Xi was inappropriate, and that the emperor appeared to be engaged in diplomacy due to China's request.

Japan's relations with China were also front and center as the DPJ's secretary general Ozawa arrived in Beijing last week with an unprecedented delegation of 640, including more than 140 DPJ members of the Diet (parliament) - 80 of whom had recently been elected for the first time.

One senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official described the trip as ill timed and not helpful, given Hatoyama's inability to present the US with a firm decision about what comes next on Okinawa.

Ozawa talked openly about how the growing ties between China and Japan would only get stronger once the DPJ became Japan's controlling political party. Ozawa also suggested that this would happen after next summer's elections because, in his mind, the DPJ was on track to secure a solid single-party majority in the Diet.

"I am recruiting candidates for the final battle and am aiming for a victory as the commander-in-chief of the field army," Ozawa said, according to the Mainichi Shimbun.

Ozawa's comments are worth a closer look. A Yomiuri Shimbun report quotes him differently, and draws more attention to his choice of words.
"In summer, we'll have a final battle [the Upper House election]. I'll leave the government administration to Prime Minister [Yukio] Hatoyama, and devote myself to the battle as a supreme commander of the people's liberation army's field battle unit," Ozawa said. "If the DPJ wins the majority of seats in the Upper House, it will create an environment in which we can have bolder discussions. That also will contribute to deepening the bilateral relationship."
Both Kitazawa and Ozawa are willing to make statements that will probably not sit well with the SDP - let alone Washington - and this comes as no big surprise. Nor is anyone going to be caught off guard by Ozawa's reference to the existing coalition's inability or reluctance to undertake "bolder discussions" with China.

However, because Hatoyama's political success is highly dependent on continuing and consistent support from the compulsive SDP - not the most anti-American force in contemporary Japanese politics, but close to it - Hatoyama cannot be too happy when the opinions of senior DPJ members threaten to undermine this relationship.

After hearing Ozawa's comments about next summer's elections, the SDP can sit back and ignore Ozawa completely or wonder what exactly the DPJ is planning. Either way, it is a sure bet that Hatoyama's honeymoon will not extend to the next round of elections in 2010.

The SDP did not enter into a coalition with the DPJ to be left high and dry in 2010. With the DPJ placing so much stock in its younger members in particular, this demographic slant must have the SDP concerned as well. Add it all up and the SDP must do some quick calculations with respect to the benefits of the arrangement in which it now finds itself.

If distrust mounts in the SDP, or if the SDP sees writing on the wall that it finds alarming, it might choose to make a sudden exit, causing a collapse of the current government. Fortunately for Hatoyama, the chances of this happening are quite slim.

What is preventing any large-scale SDP split is the SDP's realization that a bumpy ride with the DPJ is better than no ride at all. After years of LDP dominance, during which the SDP played a marginal role at best and sometimes no role at all, at least now the SDP can enjoy its seat at the table. Throwing this out the window makes little sense for now. Yes, it would end Hatoyama's honeymoon in an instant, but the cost appears simply too great.

However, senior DPJ officials who allude to a DPJ sweep next year are playing with fire. The SDP only has to walk out the door in early 2010 to bring these same DPJ officials back down to earth in an instant.

Hatoyama, meanwhile, is striving to get all economic arrows pointed in a more positive direction. No cure for Japan's economic hangover has been identified thus far, and under the DPJ, there are signs that the economy is again slipping sideways, if not downwards.

A downbeat mood in the country helps to explain the large Japanese delegation in Beijing. Japan is eager to find a solution to its persistent economic problems, which might include an innovative solution featuring China and South Korea as partners, if that is what it takes to turn things around.

Japan cannot innovate its way out of its mess, nor can it rely on the US to ride to its rescue. China will not serve as a safe haven either because as China starts to climb quite quickly out of its economic doldrums leaving Japan behind, this could further undermine the Japanese public's confidence in Hatoyama and the DPJ, with very adverse consequences at the polls next year.

As this unfolds, Hatoyama seems hazy. For example, when he stepped to the podium during last week's Bali Democracy Forum he co-chaired with Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, he stated:
China, home to the largest population in Asia and experiencing remarkable economic growth, has been undergoing an economic and social transformation to open itself to Asia and the wider world. In the 2008 joint statement between Japan and China, our two countries pledged to "engage in close cooperation to develop greater understanding and pursuit of basic and universal values that are commonly accepted by the international community". There is great expectation that China will continue to make progress, as a responsible power, on the issues of democracy and human rights, along with various other issues.

It is important to note that there is no end to the process of evolving democracy; it is always a work in progress with the possibility of further improvement. One could argue that the recent change of government in Japan was an example of such a process for improvement. It is essential that we recognize each other's differences and advance our collaboration in an open and mutually supportive manner. Japan supports the self-motivated efforts of other governments towards democracy. I believe that an East Asian community, of which I am a proponent, will also come into view in time as we forge ahead in this way.
By raising the possibility in the abstract that China might some day become "self-motivated" and stroll down some previously undiscovered path towards democracy while prominent dissidents continue to head off to jail there, Hatoyama was supremely diplomatic. Perhaps Hatoyama retained visions of China's President Hu Jintao standing alongside dozens of his fellow DPJ members - not only shaking hands with all the Diet members in attendance, but having individual photos taken with most of them.

At the time this was taking place in Beijing and Bali, China's official news agency was reporting the discovery of more evidence of the "Nanjing Massacre" in the late 1930s, when Japanese troops occupied the Chinese city - certainly not a breaking news story but one that was aimed directly at Tokyo nonetheless.

Hatoyama is not oblivious to this move by Xinhua. Nor can he ignore Barack Obama's decision to exclude any mention of Japan's commitment of US$5 billion in economic aid to Afghanistan during the US president's pivotal speech about how the US will conduct the war in Afghanistan over the next 18 months. Obama had much to say about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's involvement in his speech, but nothing to say about the somewhat low-profile peace conference held in Tokyo late last month.

Hatoyama is being pulled hard in opposite directions as he attempts to engage in a delicate balancing act involving two of his closest allies, the US and the SDP. As a more hawkish Obama administration rears its head and Beijing beckons with its blossoming economy, Hatoyama's life is not getting any easier.

Peter J Brown is a freelance writer from the US state of Maine.

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