Iraqis divide ahead of elections


By Sami Moubayed
Asia Times
Nov 5, 2009


DAMASCUS - Four years ago, anybody preaching a non-sectarian agenda in Iraq would have been scoffed at by voters and ridiculed by ordinary Iraqis. In times of war, voices of reason are usually silenced by those who scream sectarian rhetoric, calling on Sunnis to eject Shi'ites from power or Shi'ites to strike at traditional enemies in the Sunni community.

Anyone who speaks a different language is cornered to become a political outcast, because that is what the street wants to hear. Usually, these fanatics have militias to lean on. When a Sunni or a Shi'ite walks up to his community leader and complains that a dear family member has been slain, the last thing he needs is someone calling on him to calm down, take the matter to court and have faith in Iraqi justice.

Three notable exceptions to the sectarian chorus in Iraq are former prime minister Iyad Allawi, and Sunni leaders Saleh al-Mutlak and Adnan al-Pachachi. Last week, they formed the Iraqi National Movement (INM), to run in the parliamentary elections scheduled for January.

This coalition clearly stands out amid all other groups in Iraq due to its secularism, balance and, most notably, the political wisdom of its leaders. As of early November, the five main coalitions competing for power in January are:

The State of Law Alliance, headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Although sharply criticized by opponents of the current regime, this alliance seems to be the strongest in Iraq. It includes a limited number of influential Sunnis, like the deputy speaker of parliament, Shiekh Khaled al-Atiyya, and tribal leaders like Said Yawer al-Shummari and Ali Hatem Suleiman, head of the Dulaim tribe.

Other important people include: female activist Safia Talib al-Suheil, ex-ambassador Sadeq al-Rikabi; government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh; and Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani. It also includes the ministers of education, health, tourism, immigration, youth, sports and parliamentary affairs. Although most of the strongmen on this alliance are Shi'ite, Maliki claims that it speaks for all Iraqis and will work to promote and protect the interests of both Sunnis and Shi'ites, under "a state of law".

The Iraqi National Alliance (INA), headed by ex-prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafary. Unlike other coalitions, which are cross-confessional, the INA is composed of only heavyweight Shi'ites. It will absorb a majority of the Shi'ite vote, banking on the influence and prestige of seasoned statesmen like Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi and Ammar al-Hakim of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and Ahmad Chalabi, a former deputy prime minister and oil minister.

The Iraqi Unity Alliance (IUA), headed by current Interior Minister Jawad al-Boulani (Shi'ite) and Sheikh Ahmad Abu Risheh (Sunni), is the weakest of all the major coalitions. Boulani has jumped from one political party to another since the downfall of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003, shedding serious doubt over his political credibility. He has served office with the Sadrists, the Islamic Virtue Party, the National Congress and the Shi'ite Political Council.

His tenure as minister since 2006 earned him many enemies among Sunnis, who accused Boulani of allowing Shi'ite militias to use police uniforms and automobiles to strike at the Sunni community while doing very little to protect entire Sunni neighborhoods. Additionally, during his tenure, horrendous attacks took place in Baghdad in August and October this year, killing nearly 250 people and wounding another 1,000.

Most Iraqis blame the prime minister and Boulani for failing to prevent the attacks. The co-chair of the IUA hails from a leading Sunni tribe, but is himself a leader by accident, having inherited the post from his brother Abdul Sattar, who was slain by al-Qaeda for cuddling up to president George W Bush, in 2007. Abu Risheh's influence among Sunnis is limited, where many people see him as a colorless figure that is too close to the US. He is incapable of getting Sunni voters to back the campaign of his running mate, Boulani, and likewise, the latter's clout is too small to get Shi'ite voters to vote for Abu Risheh.

The Iraqi Accordance Front (IFA), headed by a coalition of Sunni leaders, currently holds 44 out of the 275 seats in parliament. Like the INA, it does not claim to be a cross-confessional coalition, but rather bluntly claims to be speaking for the 10 million Sunnis.

It contains heavyweight groups in the Sunni community who are furious at having been ejected from power in 2003, with little respect and ceremony, and dreams of making a strong comeback into the political process by gaining more seats in parliament, more allocated portfolios in the cabinet and, possibly, the Iraqi presidency. The IFA includes the Iraqi Islamic Party, the People of Iraq Coalition (headed by Adnan al-Duleimi) and influential figures like Iyad Samarrai, the current speaker of parliament.

The Iraqi National Movement (INM) that was recently announced, headed by ex-prime minister Allawi. The co-chair of the INM is Saleh al-Mutlak, a former Ba'athist, academic and secular Sunni notable from Anbar province. It calls for accountability, rule of law, secularism and crushing religious extremism on the streets of Baghdad.

The INM is the only party in the parliamentary race that truly wants to unite the ranks of Sunnis and Shi'ites. Many in the Western press wonder how successful such a coalition can be, when it stands against religiously-driven groups that are backed by strong countries in the neighborhood.

Yet this is something that makes the INM special. Maliki's State of Law Coalition and the INA, for example, are backed by Iran, while the Accordance Front is backed by Saudi Arabia. Nobody backs Allawi at this stage. Had he wanted an easy comeback to power during the civil war years (2005-200 he could have given the Iraqi street what it wanted to hear: plenty of sectarian rhetoric. He refused, however, living by his convictions that only in a secular and united nation will ordinary Iraqis find normalcy.

Having said that, it is not possible to pick a clear winner for January. At one point it seemed that sectarianism was beginning to fade among ordinary Iraqis, who were fed up with the civil strife of 2005-2008 and wanted to let bygones be bygones. That no longer stands after the August 19 and October 25 attacks in Baghdad, which have poisoned the waters once again, between different sects and communities.

That is why nobody can predict for sure how successful - or not - the INM will be. The fact that such a coalition stands, however, insisting that secularism is not dead, is reassuring. In 2005, no secular groups ran for office - only religiously driven politicians in the Iran-backed United Iraqi Alliance (UIA). Now, there is one secular group and hopefully by the elections in 2015 seculars will outnumber the sectarian politicians; this depends on the results in January.

Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward.

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