New Low: Only 15% Now Expect Situation in Afghanistan To Improve Over Next Six Months

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Voter confidence about the short-term course of the war in Afghanistan has fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years, while confidence about the direction in Iraq over the next six months has dropped to the lowest point in almost five years of surveying.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 15% of Likely U.S. Voters now think the situation in Afghanistan will get better in the next six months. That’s down from a recent high of 27% in early May just after the killing of Osama bin Laden and the lowest level of confidence since October 2009.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) predict the situation in Afghanistan will get worse over the next six months, up from 21% in May and the highest level of pessimism since last September. Thirty-one percent (31%) expect it to remain about the same, while 16% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

These findings come at a time when more voters than ever want to bring U.S. troops home from what is now America’s longest-running war. Fifty-nine percent (59%) are calling for an immediate troop withdrawal or the creation of a firm timetable to bring them all home within a year.

A full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq is still scheduled by the end of this year, but only 21% of voters expect the situation in that war-torn country to improve over the next six months. That’s down from a recent high of 32% in May and the lowest level of confidence found in surveys back to early November 2006. Twenty-eight percent (28%) think the short-term situation in Iraq will get worse, comparable to findings since the first of the year, while 35% believe it will remain about the same. Again, 16% are not sure what will happen in that country over the next six months.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on August 9-10, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Confidence in the overall course of the War on Terror which surged following the killing of bin Laden continues to fall.

Democrats are more optimistic about the situations in both Afghanistan and Iraq than are Republicans and voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Tea Party members think the situation in Afghanistan will worsen over the next six months, compared to 36% of non-members. Similarly, those in the grass roots smaller government movement are nearly twice as likely as non-members – 46% to 24% - to expect things to get worse in Iraq in the short term.

The Political Class is much more positive about the direction on both war fronts than Mainstream voters are.

In a survey in mid-June, nearly two-out-of-three voters thought it was unlikely all remaining U.S. troops in Iraq will be brought home by the end of the year, but if the Iraqi government asks for some of those troops to stay, a plurality felt we should comply.

Voter support for continued military action in Libya continues to fall along with the number of voters who think dictator Moammar Gaddafi will be removed from power as a result.

Compared to the four presidents who have followed him, Ronald Reagan had a more limited view of when to send U.S. military force into action overseas, and 75% of voters still agree with him that “the United States should not commit its forces to military action overseas unless the cause is vital to our national interest.â€