Can Bob McDonnell Really Get 31% Of The Black Vote?
October 20th, 2009

The latest SurveyUSA poll showing Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell with a 19% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds (which would be the biggest win for any Virginia Governor of either party since 1961) has some interesting internals.

(voting is Nov 3rd or 13 days away)

One of the strangest findings is that McDonnell is getting 31% of the African American vote.

Is this possible? Well, the smart money would say no. But if you want to construct an argument for SurveyUSA being correct, consider the following:

(1) In 2006, George Allen came about as close as he could have come to dropping an "n-bomb" on a person of color without actually saying that particular word. Throughout the campaign, Democrats consistently brought up racial incidents in Allen's past. And the Republican label was radioactive nationally. Allen still got 15% of the black vote.

(2) Doug Wilder's (Virginia's first black governor and former mayor of Richmond) non-endorsement of Deeds has received a ton of attention.

(3) McDonnell has been competing quietly for the black vote in his commercials. One advertisement has featured businesswoman Sheila Johnson, a Democrat who endorsed McDonnell, while another features numerous African American Deputy and Assistant Attorneys General.

If a Republican were to receive 31% of the black vote in Virginia, one would expect some combination of factors like those listed above.

That said, 31% would be a phenomenally high result for a Republican gubernatorial candidate anywhere, and SurveyUSA, for some reason, generally tends to show Republicans performing better among blacks than the final result shows -- witness October 2006 SurveyUSA polling showing a no-name Republican candidate receiving 21% of the black vote in the Tennessee gubernatorial race.

He eventually received 4% in actual voting.

Even if McDonnell eventually gets a more reasonable 20-25% of the black vote, it would be an outstanding performance for a Republican, and one that would likely receive some national attention.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com ... lack-vote/