Thread: Unemloyment: 103,000 Unemployed Fall Off Extended Benefits

Initial Claims Miss Consensus, Prior Bad Data Amplified, 103,000 Unemployed Fall Off Extended Benefits

Submitted by Tyler Durden
09/22/2011 08:46 -0400
Comments: 60 / Reads: 5,467

Another day, another chance for the BLS to fudge jobs data by revising last week's claims miss to an even worse number: sure enough last week's -428K drop was just revised to -432K. Which means that this week's consensus miss, which was at 420K, is irrelevant, with the weekly number coming at 423K because all headlines will blare that claims actually declined by 9K. The game has become so old (and we mean old: the BLS has been doing this very same fudge for 2 years in a row now) we are stunned anyone falls for it. And one thing that will also most certainly be ignored is that the 423K number is really 427K because as the BLS reported, a -3,776 drop in claims in Texas was due to "Fewer layoffs due to holiday" - well the holiday is over. Lastly, and most troubling for the economy is that another massive 103,000 people dropped off extended benefit claims in one week. Just as troubling is that 1.7 million people have dropped off the government's dole in the past year as can be seen in the chart below: these are people that haven't gotten a job, they have just stopped being counted by the govt.



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/initial-c ... d-benefits

Today's Economic Data Docket - Claims, Leading Indicators, Mass Layoffs

Submitted by Tyler Durden
09/22/2011 08:22 -0400
Comments: 68 / Reads: 4,560

While nobody will actually care about today's set of high frequency economic updates, seeing how the world's implosion has now been validated and it is all up to the global central banks to bail us out (which they will fail at miserably), as has been anticipated on this blog for months, here is what the algos, who are the only ones trading US economic headlines now, have to look forward to.

8:30: Jobless claims (Week of September 17): Back to June level. Initial jobless claims rose to 428k in the week ending September 10, returning to their June level. The Department of Labor said that there were no indications that Hurricane Irene had an impact on the national total for claims (reported by Bloomberg). If claims were to increase meaningfully further from last week’s level it would be a worrying sign for the cyclical outlook.

Consensus: 420,000; Last: 428,000. MAP: 2

10:00: Index of leading indicators (August): Consensus forecasts expect a small increase in the index of leading indicators during August, likely reflecting the steep slope of the yield curve and an increase in housing permits. Several other components of the index likely declined.
Consensus: +0.1%; Last +0.5%.

10:00: FHFA House Price Index (July): Further gain? This index—which tracks the purchase price of homes with agency-conforming mortgages—increased in each of the last three months, and consensus forecasts look for another small gain during July.
Consensus: +0.1%; Last +0.9%.

10:00: Monthly Mass Layoffs Update (August):Mass layoff actions in August will probably be concentrated in government and financial industries. Many school districts will complete their layoff plans as the new school year approaches, and there have been numerous large layoff announcements among financial firms.

11:00: Treasury will announce details of the following week's 3- and 6-month bill auctions, along with the month-end 2-, 5-, and 7-year auction details. Consensus looks for a combined $56.0 billion of 3- and 6-month bills, a $33.0 billion 2-year note, a $34.0 billion 5-year note, and a $28.0 billion 7-year note.

Sources: GS, SMRA and ZH

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/todays-ec ... ss-layoffs