Heavyweights to rise and fall


By Sami Moubayed
Asia Times
Jan 5, 2010


DAMASCUS - As is customary on New Year's Eve, a colorful assortment of astrologers, oracles and soothsayers appeared on Arabic satellite TV predicting what 2010 has in store for the Arab world.

Some went full-board with what many people wanted to hear - predicting annihilation of the State of Israel; others stated the obvious, claiming that the Arab-Israeli conflict will not be solved and that Lebanon will remain divided among its different sects in 2010.

One oracle stood out with relatively wise predictions: Lebanese Magi Farah. She predicted Arab reconciliation in February, medical breakthrough discoveries in April, and natural disasters following a lunar eclipse in June. Among other things, she spoke of another war in Lebanon, some time during June, July and August, in addition to the rise and fall of heavyweights in the Arab world.

That prediction did not need a fortune-teller - all wars in Lebanon have historically taken place in the summer, when the skies are clear and the soil is firm for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to venture forth. What makes this next predicted war possible is the rising tension between Hezbollah and the IDF since late in 2009. The IDF has been carrying out military training for months, bluntly saying that it is getting ready for another confrontation with Hezbollah, to finish off business left behind by the war of 2006.

At that time, Israel promised to liberate its soldiers taken captive by the Lebanese resistance, and to weaken and eventually break the military might of Hezbollah. None of that happened four years ago, and by all accounts Hezbollah is as powerful as ever militarily, having fully equipped itself thanks to the backing of Iran. Politically, things have never been better for Hezbollah, now that a cabinet of national unity has been formed to its liking, in which it and its allies were given all the portfolios it had sought from Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

Strongly represented in both the cabinet and parliament, it is now mending fences with Saudi Arabia, ahead of an expected visit by Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah to Riyadh - pleased that Hariri has also mended fences with the Syrians, in a landmark visit to Damascus in December.

The strength of Hezbollah is a nightmare for Israel, and nothing would please the IDF and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more than a chance to strike at a traditional enemy. Such a war, naturally, would spell disaster for Hariri, given that Hezbollah is strongly represented in his cabinet, and would kill the tourism season for Lebanon, which Hariri hopes will help attract tourists and investment - mainly from the Persian Gulf - to his struggling country.

Nobody would want to go to or invest in a country haunted by war, even if it is ruled by a pro-Western financial heavyweight like Hariri. That is exactly what Israel wants: to punish Hariri for his newfound relationship with Hezbollah and to launch a massive war that many predict will be the last for Hezbollah and Lebanon, since the IDF will not settle for anything but total success.

Hezbollah seems undaunted by the prospect of such a war, claiming that it is ready for it and that, this time, it is not going to take a defensive position as in 2006, but will strike deep into Israeli territory - at Haifa and beyond Haifa - and even occupy settlements in northern Israel, to bring down the Netanyahu government.

What makes matters more complicated is the assumption that the US will no longer involve itself at a micro level in Lebanese affairs, given that Washington's focus is firmly on Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran. Going to war, therefore, or preventing it, lies in the hands of regional players such as Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria. If war does happen, it will break either Hezbollah or Netanyahu - signaling that a win-win scenario like 2006 is no longer possible for the region.

There is nothing on the horizon to show that 2010 will bring any breakthrough in Middle East peace, despite all the promising words by US President Barack Obama last June. Obama has good intentions - no doubt about that - but he has repeatedly failed to apply adequate pressure on Israel to get its leadership to change course vis-a-vis settlement expansion in the West Bank or with regard to the siege of Gaza.

A hardline Israeli government and a troublesome US Congress have both incapacitated Obama, and rather than ruin his successful track record by attempting to tackle a problem that all his predecessors have failed to resolve since 1948, he will likely distance himself from any Middle East peace process, preferring to get his troops back home from Iraq and right the wrongs done by George W Bush in the Gulf.

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton drowned the hopes of the optimists in late 2009 by saying that a halt on settlements was no longer a precondition for starting any peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis. That stance, topped with a helpless Palestinian president who cannot deliver, a Hamas leadership in Gaza, and an Israeli government that refuses to talk peace with the Syrians so long as Turkish mediators are on board, makes a peace breakthrough close to impossible in 2010.

Another obvious prediction for 2010 is that the troubled situation in Iraq will not normalize. One reason is the March 7 elections, which will spark violence before and during the vote and in their immediate aftermath. Sunni politicians will struggle to get hold of parliament, learning from the boycott mistake of 2005, while Shi'ite statesmen will not relinquish the power that they have enjoyed since the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Regional heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia and Iran will have plenty to say in the upcoming elections, each supporting its proxy in the complex web of Baghdad politics, while non-state players such as al-Qaeda will exploit the predicted violence, to strike at Riyadh, Tehran and the US within the Iraqi arena.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, currently on everybody’s radar, will struggle to stay in power in March, although because of the horrific bombings of August and October 2009, it is highly probable that he will begin his long march into history two months from now. His Iranian allies have already made success difficult for him by venturing into Iraqi oilfields in late 2009, immersing themselves in Iraqi domestic affairs to cover up for the increasingly unstable situation inside Iran.

If Maliki loses, all options are on the table as to who will replace him. One option is the Iran-backed coalition that includes Sadrists and members of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. Another is a broad coalition of less powerful Shi'ite parties, also supported by Iran, such as the alliance of current Interior Minister Jawad al-Boulani. A strong Sunni comeback is not an option, because of the divided Sunni front and the fact that Iran will never hear of it.

Several regional figures are, therefore, going to make or break 2010: Nasrallah, Netanyahu, and Maliki. They will hold the keys to security or chaos in the Arab world, since anything that happens in Iraq or Lebanon will have its ripple effects on Saudi Arabia, Iran, Palestine - and Syria.

Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA05Ak02.html