Whiting: Changing weather may affect tap water
Published: Nov. 27, 2012 Updated: 7:01 p.m.
Whiting: Changing weather may affect tap water
BY DAVID WHITING
COLUMNIST
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
dwhiting@ocregister.com
Some say the great wars of the future won't be about oil, but about water.
With drought conditions in most areas west of the Mississippi, is it time to bar windows, bolt doors and hoard water?
UC Irvine's Soroosh Sorooshian stands near a Google Earth image of the planet displayed on a large HIPer Wall video monitor. The global map can show estimated rainfall over variable time periods in near real time. The data his team at Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing produces is available free to the public. H. LORREN AU JR., THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
The good news, according to hydrology experts, is that – unlike vast parts of the world such as central Africa and the Midwest – there are no worries in Orange County.
For the foreseeable future.
The problem is that science's crystal ball only sees so far.
But Soroosh Sorooshian, director of UCI's Center for Hydrometeorology & Remote Sensing, is doing everything he can to peer further into our future.
Fortunately, he has help from some of the most sophisticated technology on – and above – the planet.
• • •
I sit in a conference room outside Sorooshian's office and wish I had the giant screen on the wall in my family room. Of course, I'd waste it watching the Lakers.
Sorooshian monitors things like real lakes.
The screen is 10-foot by five-foot and shows rainfall everywhere on Earth. With a computer click, Sorooshian zooms in on an area, checks out landcover such as trees, jungle, deserts – lakes – and reviews rainfall in the last 72 hours.
If you're used to checking out weather online, that may sound like no big deal.
But realize that satellite photos only show clouds and estimate storm severity. They don't tell you how much rain is really falling.
With support from the Department of Commerce, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Army and NASA, Sorooshian's team uses sophisticated satellites backed with radar and ground gauges to measure rainfall.
In millimeters.
For a farmer in Vietnam or in California's Central Valley – the information is available free online – the rainfall numbers are a quantum leap from technology only a decade ago.
Yes, you may not care – so long as your faucet works. But if you've ever reached for the tap and found nothing but air – something that occurred in parts of Southern California in the late 1950s – you understand that knowing how much rain falls matters.
• • •
When Sorooshian started specializing in hydrology, the field didn't carry the weight it does today.
In the early 1970s, the planet seemed like, well, the water planet.
Sorooshian is quick to point out that hasn't changed. Earth has the same amount of water. But the big question isn't about how much water we have.
Sorooshian frames the big question this way: "Is the water coming to where you want it?"
Consider the tragedy in the Darfur region of the Sudan. Many agree the origin of the conflict stems from people having to move because of changing rainfall patterns.
Closer to home, we see rain pelting the East while the central U.S., the nation's breadbasket, experiences extreme drought.
Sorooshian, distinguished professor of civil and environmental engineering, understands the importance of rain first hand. He grew up on a farm in Iran in an area known to be one of the world's most fertile for thousands of years.
Now, he sees his family's old pistachio groves dying of thirst.
But changing weather is only one thing that troubles Sorooshian.
• • •
In 1990, the global population was 5.2 billion, including 250 million Americans. By 2008, those figures jumped, respectively, to 6.7 billion and 304 million.
In a decade, global population is projected to climb to more than 8 billion, with the number of U.S. residents estimated at 352 million.
Sorooshian points out that countries across the globe are using water like never before, to build cars, homes, make bread.
Think about how much water is used to make a single loaf, including everything from growing wheat, to maintaining a bakery.
The Orange County Water district states that to make a single slice of bread, it takes 11 gallons of water.
To manufacture a car – 39,090 gallons.
The Middle East, Sorooshian explains, is in the midst of a drought and even the CIA is interested in how tensions over water will play out.
So why haven't we heard more about water?
"Everything else is so huge," the professor says, "no one pays attention to it."
But they will.
• • •
Sorooshian says historical conflicts over the Colorado River Basin may be an example of things to come elsewhere.
The Colorado River – which Orange County drinks – "was the most litigated water basin in the world."
If you've been to lakes Powell or Mead, both reservoirs, you've seen why there are water fights. Water year 2011 was one of the driest in four decades. Water levels are low.
Sorooshian notes that tree rings in the basin indicate mega droughts over hundreds of years. Is the current drought mini or mega?
As an answer, Sorooshian shows me two climate model projections for the decades ahead. One shows more water. The other, less.
"We don't yet have the science where we can predict. Nature is complicated."
If we're in the early stages of a mega drought, Sorooshian says, "The Dust Bowl was nothing compared to what we'll see."
Fortunately, Sorooshian calls Orange County water "a model with a system that has resiliency with backup resources."
Along with the Colorado River, Orange County gets its water from a variety of sources including Northern California's snow pack, storm water from the Prado Dam and recycled water. Much is stored in the county's groundwater basin.
Additionally, South Coast Water District, which serves coastal communities in South County, is testing desalinization.
But in an interdependent world, are places like Orange County enough to prevent water from becoming the new oil?
• • •
As we make our way across the globe using Sorooshian's map, I think of my recent visit to Joshua Tree National Park. There's a trail that promises a lake. There's even a shiny sign at the site describing the lake.
But there isn't a lake, only powder-dry desert.
A student who passed her doctoral exam only an hour ago drops by Sorooshian's
office. Her thesis offers ways to make rainfall measurements even more accurate.
Let's drink – or sip – to that.
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