Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
in Politics
Monday, May 21, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows President Obama earning 47% of the vote and Mitt Romney attracting 44% support. Five percent (5%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another five percent (5%) are undecided.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters believe the federal government is likely to go bankrupt before it ever balances the federal budget.
Voters typically see competition as the best way to reduce prices and may be heading in that direction to address the cost of prescription medications. If the FDA denies approval for a particular drug, 52% believe state governments should be able to overrule the federal agency and approve sale of that drug within its borders.
Sixty-four percent (64%) prefer fewer government services and lower taxes.Scott Rasmussen’s new book, The People’s Money,shows how voters would implement these goals and balance the budget. The book also shows how America’s Political Class is more interested in pursuing its own agenda rather than listening to voters.
In addition to the daily tracking updates, Rasmussen Reports releases results on the Obama-Romney matchup based upon a full week’s worth of survey interviews. This week-by-week basis provides a larger sample of 3,500 Likely Voters to reduce statistical noise and eliminate any possible day-of-the-week bias. The full week numbers also are useful for reviewing trends in the race. For most of the past few months, the candidates have been just a point or two apart in the week-by-week numbers. This information is available for subscribers along with more than 20 exclusive stories per week. Sign up now and receive all the information for less than a dollar a week. Platinum Members can also review demographic crosstabs for the presidential race and other data.
(President Obama’s Job Approval Ratings Below)
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A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 50% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).
Just 20% of homeowners expect the value of their home to go up this year, while 24% expect the opposite. Looking longer term, only 47% believe the value of their home will go up over the next five years.
Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”
Scott Rasmussen’s weekly syndicated newspaper column shows that Republicans and Democrats have wildly different expectations as to how the economy will perform between now and Election Day. As a result, they have wildly different expectations of who will win the White House.
If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers. The Wall Street Journal has called him “America’s leading insurgent pollster,” and The Washington Post says Scott is a “driving force in American politics.”
To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports also compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(Daily Approval Index Updates Below)
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Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13 (see trends).
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.
(More Below)
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Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video serviceand a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate. A nationally syndicated TV show--What America Thinks--is scheduled for launch in September 2012.
Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Like all organizations that conduct public opinion polls, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote.
Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans, 33.0% Democrats, and 31.2% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.
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Romney is ANOTHER McCain .. just like last time the GOP set you up for Failure