Thread: Don’t worry about ‘American decline’

Don’t worry about ‘American decline’

Posted by Ezra Kleinat 10:52 AM ET, 05/18/2012

“Anyone who tells you that America is in decline or that our influence has waned,” said President Obama in his 2012 State of the Union address, “doesn’t know what they’re talking about.”

It was a “rah-rah America!” applause line for a president who needed to get the assembled Republicans out of their seats a few times over the course of the evening. But the line works literally, too. Whenever someone tells me that the United States is in decline, I have no idea what they’re talking about. And neither, I tend to think, do they.

The claim is maddeningly vague. What does it mean for the United States to be in decline? Are we talking about our geopolitical influence relative to other world powers? Our standard of living relative to other nations? Our current standard of living compared with some assumption about its appropriate rate of improvement?

Let’s flip the question: What does it mean for the United States to be on the rise? If it’s growing at a perfectly respectable 3.5 percent a year while China is growing at 8.5 percent a year, enabling China’s economy to surpass the U.S. economy in a decade or so, does that mean the nation is in decline?

My hunch is that’s how most Americans define decline. Which is a problem.

Consider a different scenario: Let’s say the United States is growing at 3 percent annually, and China’s growth slows to 4 percent. In that case, China won’t surpass the United States for decades, forestalling American “decline.” Yet that’s a worse outcome for everybody. It means more impoverished Chinese and more impoverished Americans — who will, incidentally, be competing with those low-wage Chinese workers who still can’t afford to buy American-made goods and services. It means fewer life-improving innovations will be developed in both countries. It may also mean less geopolitical stability as the Chinese people channel their frustrations against their political system, or their political system tries to distract them by channeling their frustrations against competitor nations.

If American preeminence relies on the continued immiseration of Brazil, China and India, then, even in the most selfish terms terms, I’m not sure that it’s worth having. Yet it seems that some Americans would prefer to be the only superpower in hell than the foremost member of a more prosperous G20 in heaven.

A world in which global growth slows so much that countries with three or four times our population never surpass the United States’s economic output is a world in which much is going wrong. Even now, many Chinese think that 8 percent annual growth is necessary for their society to remain stable. If growth falls to 4 percent, the Chinese system could crack, with untold geopolitical and human consequences. Perhaps it would lead to a more pluralistic, open political system. But I wouldn’t bet on it. More likely, it would lead to increased nationalism, xenophobia and internal repression.

If hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indians continue to be stuck on unproductive farms or in unskilled jobs rather than being freed to develop their human capital, the rest of the world will be denied access to the endless innovations they otherwise might have developed. Put another way, the sun may now set on the British Empire, but the average British citizen lives much better because of the medical and computer technologies developed in Britain’s former colonies. If those colonies hadn’t grown rich and strong enough to throw off the mother country’s yoke, the result would be a worse world for everyone — including the British.

My worry, in fact, is not that “the rest” are rising too fast, but that they may not be able to sustain their rise for much longer.

Yes, the United States has its problems. But I wouldn’t trade our problems for anyone else’s. Europe, China and Japan face immense demographic challenges. All three are aging rapidly and, for cultural and political reasons, immigration is unlikely to swell their workforces. Japan, with a median age of 44.6, is one of the oldest countries in the world. In China, the birth rate has fallen from 2.6 births per woman 30 years ago to 1.56 today.

Political challenges loom equally large. The euro zone looks irredeemably flawed — perhaps even unsalvageable. It’s unclear how China’s political system will evolve as the country grows richer, or how it will survive if the rapid growth of the past few decades slows dramatically. As for India, its political system makes the euro area look like a model of farsighted governance.

Then there are the economic challenges. Brazil, China and India are becoming middle-income countries. Historically, that is a harbinger of slower growth. Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley and author of the book “Breakout Nations,” says the “gold medalists of growth” all experience a similar fate. “Japan and Korea and Taiwan, at a similar stage to where China is today in economic development, all slowed down,” he says. “It’s much easier to grow from a low base. Once your base becomes bigger, it’s much more difficult to grow.”

If Europe gets back on track, and if Brazil, China and India manage to sustain their high growth rates, then it’s true that more nations will be vying for influence on the world stage: The unquestioned geopolitical dominance of the United States could decline. At that point, ensuring that the values the country has imperfectly promoted — liberal democracy, human rights, open capitalism — continue to hold sway becomes a matter of statecraft. Diplomacy will have to achieve what being the only superpower on the block once assured. But that’s why we have the State Department, not to mention a military budget larger than those of the next few nations combined.

The problems associated with expansive global economic growth are real, but they’re problems in the context of an improving world. Conversely, if the BRICs can’t rise out of poverty, and Europe and Japan can’t right their economies, that’s a worse world beset by problems we may not be able to solve. Those who yearn for a form of American preeminence that can only exist due to economic stagnation elsewhere really do not know what they’re talking about.

Don’t worry about ‘American decline’ - The Washington Post

This reminds me of the scene in Disney's "Jungle Book" where the snake Kaa is singing and hypnotizing Mowgli to sleep so he can then eat him....hypnotized and asleep is just what the majority of America is.

Whenever someone tells me that the United States is in decline, I have no idea what they’re talking about. And neither, I tend to think, do they.

Jeez. I dunno. Maybe it's when they see only half the students in Florida can pass a standardized reading test, or that California now only ranks just above Mississippi and Alabama on another standardized test that they conclude there is a decline in our educational system. Or maybe watching the national debt triple in three years indicates a major decline in political leadership and statesmanship. Or maybe watching massive cuts in our defense budget by reducing the number of troops and not reducing civilian defense workers, coupled with our President's urge to cut hardware acquisition programs while gutting our nuclear arsenal might indicate a decline in military capability and preparedness. Or maybe the constant societal push to political correctness that advocates for homosexual marriage, and demands that beauty contests once limited to female participants now be open to those who can qualify surgically would indicate a definite decline in societal mores. Or , maybe the number of churches demanding open borders and defending those who break the law aiding and abetting identity theft, hiring of illegal aliens, abuse of illegal aliens, and the raiding of our social safety net by illegal aliens indicates a religious swing from promoting spirituality to retaining the support of their richest members who profit via cheap labor while recruiting more dues paying parishioners. All of course subsidized by the US taxpayer. Some would view this as a decline in our religious community. Or maybe a sense of decline comes from the overwhelming amount of crap that shows up on TV (especially from HBO and Showtime), and that constantly flows out of Hollywood. Or maybe it is the failure of our government at all levels to perform the duties for which they were created. FDA cannot prevent contaminated products from China and other 'trading partners'. The FAA believes it is perfectly all right to service commercial aircraft belonging to US airlines outside of the country without FAA oversight or verification that certified mechanics are doing the work. The FCC wants to take over the internet. The EPA wants to return the US to the dark ages with regard to energy, while simultaneously killing the national economy. DHS gets to risk our lives every day while it focuses on fondling children, toddlers, and old folks at airports. Congress thinks indefinite detention of US citizens without due process and no right to habeus corpus is just the ticket for ensuring our safety and preservation of our civil rights. Plus 30,000 drones.

Well boys and girls, if this isn't decline I don't know what it is. It sure ain't progress.
T

Originally Posted by 4thHorseman

Jeez. I dunno. Maybe it's when they see only half the students in Florida can pass a standardized reading test, or that California now only ranks just above Mississippi and Alabama on another standardized test that they conclude there is a decline in our educational system. Or maybe watching the national debt triple in three years indicates a major decline in political leadership and statesmanship. Or maybe watching massive cuts in our defense budget by reducing the number of troops and not reducing civilian defense workers, coupled with our President's urge to cut hardware acquisition programs while gutting our nuclear arsenal might indicate a decline in military capability and preparedness. Or maybe the constant societal push to political correctness that advocates for homosexual marriage, and demands that beauty contests once limited to female participants now be open to those who can qualify surgically would indicate a definite decline in societal mores. Or , maybe the number of churches demanding open borders and defending those who break the law aiding and abetting identity theft, hiring of illegal aliens, abuse of illegal aliens, and the raiding of our social safety net by illegal aliens indicates a religious swing from promoting spirituality to retaining the support of their richest members who profit via cheap labor while recruiting more dues paying parishioners. All of course subsidized by the US taxpayer. Some would view this as a decline in our religious community. Or maybe a sense of decline comes from the overwhelming amount of crap that shows up on TV (especially from HBO and Showtime), and that constantly flows out of Hollywood. Or maybe it is the failure of our government at all levels to perform the duties for which they were created. FDA cannot prevent contaminated products from China and other 'trading partners'. The FAA believes it is perfectly all right to service commercial aircraft belonging to US airlines outside of the country without FAA oversight or verification that certified mechanics are doing the work. The FCC wants to take over the internet. The EPA wants to return the US to the dark ages with regard to energy, while simultaneously killing the national economy. DHS gets to risk our lives every day while it focuses on fondling children, toddlers, and old folks at airports. Congress thinks indefinite detention of US citizens without due process and no right to habeus corpus is just the ticket for ensuring our safety and preservation of our civil rights. Plus 30,000 drones.

Well boys and girls, if this isn't decline I don't know what it is. It sure ain't progress.
T

I myself am a churchgoer and by far the BIGGEST shock I've received as far as traitorship on the behalf of Americans against America has come from churches. The Bible says that in the last days "nation will rise against nation." We NEED borders to be safe from other nations doing us harm. Only when Jesus Christ is ruling on Earth for the 1000 years can we have "globalism" that includes a borderless world and be safe from harm!! Yet the churches aren't allowing us our right to that, apparently....

"Woe to the worthless shepherds who don't care for the sheep"

I guess Ezra Kleinat either does not know, or is being paid to distract from the fact that China, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico are working together to bleed America dry in what is becoming the biggest transfer of wealth in modern history. Wealth is bleeding out of America and most of it is going three places... China, Mexico, and the middle east.

When you shop at Wal Mart or pay your taxes to pay America's debts, your money is going to China and at this rate so will the money of your children and grand children etc...

If you buy gas, your money is going to the middle eastern nations like Saudi Arabia.

If you buy drugs, tacos, or unscrupulous lawn workers your money is going to Mexico.

America is on the decline because we are on the path to national destruction thanks to the Globalists that have taken control of our government in DC.

W

Originally Posted by ALIPAC

I guess Ezra Kleinat either does not know, or is being paid to distract from the fact that China, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico are working together to bleed America dry in what is becoming the biggest transfer of wealth in modern history. Wealth is bleeding out of America and most of it is going three places... China, Mexico, and the middle east.

When you shop at Wal Mart or pay your taxes to pay America's debts, your money is going to China and at this rate so will the money of your children and grand children etc...

If you buy gas, your money is going to the middle eastern nations like Saudi Arabia.

If you buy drugs, tacos, or unscrupulous lawn workers your money is going to Mexico.

America is on the decline because we are on the path to national destruction thanks to the Globalists that have taken control of our government in DC.

W

Unfortunately for the time being I can't do a thing about the gas. But we can sure check for "Made in America" and other countries who don't wish us harm, can't we! And any lawn worker (or roofer to that effect) we can check to see if they're here legally...and their basic attitude toward America and Americans in general.