Thread: Please, say it ain't so!

THE NEW TRIANGULATION

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

December 29, 2006 -- Is there something cyclical, but nevertheless
extraordinary, happening in American politics these days? Are we moving
from a period of partisan confrontation and division, to one that values
consensus and seeks more unity among our public figures?

Otherwise, how can we account for the unusual persistence with which
moderates like Rudy Guiliani and Senator John McCain are holding their
large leads in the Republican primary electorate? Or, the surprising
surge of perceived-moderate Senator Barack Obama into second place in the
Democratic field?

The conservative right is trailing ignominiously in the polls for the
Republican nomination, while Hillary is tied with the combined vote
share of Obama and Edwards in the Democratic field. Never mind that the
Republican voters don't realize how liberal McCain and Guiliani really
are, or how left-wing Obama's voting record — all two years of it —
indicates he might be. The fact is, that moderates in both parties seem to
doing very well.

In 2005 and early 2006, it seemed that the partisan divisions would
continue and exacerbate. The right was energized by the debates over gay
marriage and illegal immigration, and the left licked its chops after
beating Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman in the Democratic primary.
But Lieberman ended up winning, anti-immigration zealots like J.D.
Hayworth lost, and moderate Democrats won most of the House seats that
switched parties in 2006. The center showed new energy.

American politics, of course, alternates between periods of division
and consensus. Because our democracy works, we explore new political
issues and challenges through polarizing debate (such as would never happen
in Japan, for example). After the debate has raged for a while, we come
to a national consensus embracing the best of each side and move on
(unlike Italy or France).

A brief review of the past thirty years tells the story of this
oscillation, usually clear only in retrospect. Because of Vietnam,
partisanship and division reigned supreme in the 70s and early 80s, and consensus
figures like the late President Gerald Ford lost out while polarizing
politicians like Nixon, McGovern and Reagan emerged to lead their
parties. But by the mid 80s, we had returned to consensus, seeking a formula
for smaller government with a safety net offered by Reagan as he ran
for re-election in 1984.

The recession of 1991 shattered that consensus, and we opted for the
left with Clinton in 1992, and the right with Gingrich in 1994. But after
the debate had raged through government shutdowns, we ultimately
settled back into consensus, as Clinton worked with the Republican Congress
to balance the budget and pass welfare reform. That consensus was torn
apart by the Lewinsky scandal and the post-2000 election recount
battles. As, a result, partisan divisions ruled the political scene. The
terror attacks of September 11 brought us together again, but the Iraqi
invasion broke the consensus as the left and the right pursued their
respective conspiracy theories.

Could it be that, after listening to the debate over homeland security
and Iraq for the past five years, America has come to a consensus — a
new incarnation of triangulation — and wants its politicians to get on
with enacting it?

The elements of this possible "coming-together" are clearly etched in
the polls: less partisanship, wiretapping to thwart terrorism but with
civil liberties protections, aggressive questioning of terror suspects
but no torture, continued international presence in Afghanistan but a
gradual withdrawal from Iraq, a move away from oil dependency, serious
action on global warming, a more liberal attitude toward illegal
immigrants already here, but with tightened border security to stop new
arrivals, and strong action to stop North Korea and Iran from becoming nuclear
powers.

Barack Obama may not be the man to embody this new consensus, but
Americans seem to think he is. Listening to his speeches but not to his
voting record, his surge against Hillary Clinton clearly exploits the
perception that the New York Senator is the epitome of partisanship while
Obama transcends it.

Can Obama pull it off? With only a two year Senate record to defend, he
is largely devoid of partisan baggage and may be ideally positioned to
move to the center and become the triangulation candidate embracing the
new consensus.

Can McCain pull it off? It might be that his brand of centrism — social
conservate, populist, and strong on defense — may appeal to newly
pragmatic Republicans licking their wounds from 2006.

It may be that as we enter the New Year, we are entering a new era of
moderation after five years of raging debate. Let's hope so.

Obama doesn't have the experience to be president. But they might try to snag him for a VP spot. Hillary and Obama that's my prediction. God help us.

I agree. A Hillary/Obama ticket will be strong...and sickening.