Thread: Huckabee Plunge? We need poll info

Friend,

Please help me collect the latest polls and older polls thru Dec 1 on the Huckster in Iowa please. We are getting some reports of a drop and need to monitor the situation.

W

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... imary.html

More states mentioned but will post:

Republicans in a real dogfight
CHAOS: Days before the first caucuses, nobody is a clear leader.
By Liz Sidoti and Libby Quaid, Associated Press
Article Launched: 12/29/2007 09:57:28 PM PST


DES MOINES, Iowa - The Republican presidential race has gone from merely unpredictable to chaotic.

With the first votes to be cast Thursday, contests are tight in many states. Most GOP candidates have seen their fortunes shift.

Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor, recently emerged as a serious contender after rallying restive conservatives.

Mitt Romney's wealth bought him enough visibility to maintain leads in Iowa and New Hampshire for months, but the former Massachusetts governor's early-state strategy now is threatened.

Rudy Giuliani, ex-New York mayor, long dominated national polls only to watch his standing suddenly drop.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, whose campaign all but imploded in the summer, is looking for a New Hampshire comeback.

Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and TV actor, wants to place in the top three in Iowa to prove he is credible.

Ron Paul, a Texas congressman with a libertarian streak and anti-war tilt, can't be discounted. He's raised an astounding $18 million and could be a spoiler.

Unknowns further muddle the race: It's unclear whether voters will punish Romney for negative advertising. Immigration has proven the most divisive issue all year, and religion has emerged as a fault line in recent weeks.

Here's how the race stands:

IOWA
Thursday (40 delegates)

It's a dogfight in the Midwestern state that votes first. Huckabee and Romney are going at each other for the top spot.

Romney courted voters with face-to-face politicking and introduced himself through $5 million in TV ads. He had a comfortable lead in Iowa for months. Then underdog Huckabee, a one-time Southern Baptist preacher, struck a chord with voters who craved a solid conservative. He recently soared past Romney in polls, and the race took on religious overtones as Huckabee attracted Christian evangelicals who view Romney's Mormon faith skeptically.

Romney started assailing Huckabee as weak on immigration and crime, and Romney's latest commercial takes Huckabee to task on foreign policy and spending.

Polls show Huckabee's double-digit lead narrowing to single digits, which could be attributed to Huckabee making several unforced errors, most notably on foreign policy. Or he simply may have peaked too soon.

Romney has the stronger organization and more money. Huckabee has networks of pastors, home schoolers and gun owners.

Thompson has planted himself in Iowa in hopes the state can keep his lackluster bid alive, while neither Giuliani nor McCain has made the state a priority.The three are in a battle for third.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Jan. 8 (24 pledged delegates; Republican Party penalties will cut the number to 12)

Next-up New Hampshire is a toss-up between Romney and McCain. The stakes are high.

A loss for McCain would end his candidacy; he's pinned the fate of this bid on the state he won in 2000, largely out of necessity after his campaign found itself broke.

Both men will benefit from substantial get-out-the-vote operations, but McCain trails Romney dramatically in money.

Romney went on the air with ads that take McCain to task on taxes and immigration. McCain claims the criticism proves his rival's bid is in trouble.

Huckabee has gained ground but still dramatically trails his rivals. He could be a force, however, if he leaves Iowa a winner.

As McCain surged, Giuliani dipped. He since has re-focused on winning delegate-rich states that vote later, beginning with Florida. Paul could have an impact in the "Live Free or Die" state.

Independents who can vote in either primary and helped McCain in 2000 are the X-factor.

MICHIGAN
Jan. 15 (57 pledged delegates; penalties will cut them to 30)

Giuliani's once-strong support has plummeted. That's left a tight contest between Huckabee and Romney, who grew up in the state where his father was a governor. McCain won the state in 2000 and has some support here.

NEVADA
Jan. 19 (34 delegates)

This is a wild card. Polling shows Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani competitive.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Jan. 19 (47 pledged delegates; party penalties will cut the number to 24)

Huckabee has an edge in this first primary battleground in the South, with the support of white Christian evangelicals. But his lead is narrow. Romney and McCain are competing hard.

Romney has maintained his popularity despite Bible Belt uneasiness about his religion. McCain wants South Carolina to be the second stop on his comeback tour.

Giuliani's rocky personal life and left-leaning positions on abortion and gay rights may catch up with him. South Carolina would seem a natural fit for Thompson the Tennessean, but money woes have limited his efforts.

FLORIDA
Jan. 29 (114 pledged delegates; Republican Party penalties will cut the number to 57)

Once Giuliani country, Florida now is up for grabs. Huckabee is quickly gaining on the former New York mayor in a state that's home to many retired New Yorkers. Huckabee's rapid ascent in polls has prompted Giuliani to start running TV ads that invoke the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Romney has money and the backing of several allies of the former governor, Jeb Bush.

One unknown: whether the current governor, Charlie Crist, will endorse before the state votes.

MEGA TUESDAY
Feb. 5 (at least 995 delegates)

No one knows how what essentially is a national primary day in states including California, New York and Illinois will affect the race. Romney, McCain, Thompson and Huckabee say it will make earlier contests more important.

Giuliani says he can emerge the nominee if he wins on Feb. 5.

http://www.presstelegram.com/ci_7837228

I swear!!!!! Looking at the cast of characters we have to choose from is
like looking into a pit of quicksand!!!
None of them are addressing the sovereignty of our country which should
be at the top of the list.
Build "the" fence and enforce our laws....how hard is that?

Polls show Iowa caucuses too close to call
MSNBC survey finds Edwards, Romney have reason to be optimistic
MSNBC staff and news service reports
updated 1 hour, 31 minutes ago
DES MOINES, Iowa - Two opinion polls show the Democratic race in next week's Iowa caucuses too close to call, while Republican Mitt Romney appears to have regained some ground over rival Mike Huckabee.

A poll by MSNBC/McClatchy shows the Democratic race remains a virtual three-way tie between John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Where Edwards previously had lagged slightly behind Clinton and Obama, the poll showed him at 24 percent, compared with Clinton at 23 percent and Obama at 22 percent.

While that difference is within the poll's margin of error, it could indicate late momentum for the former North Carolina senator and 2004 Democratic presidential running mate.

Among Republicans, the poll shows Mitt Romney regaining a slight lead over Mike Huckabee — 27 percent to 24 percent — although the difference is within the poll's margin of error, making the race a virtual tie.

In the last month, Huckabee had surged from the GOP's second tier to the front of the pack in Iowa, overtaking Romney, who long had held the lead there. But the former Arkansas governor's lead appears to have evaporated — he's fallen 8 percentage points since a poll taken Dec. 3-6.

The poll also found, however, that one in five Iowa Democrats and one in three Iowa Republicans said they could still change their minds before the caucuses on Thursday — the first big test in the state-by-state battle to choose candidates for the November

The telephone survey was taken Dec. 26-28 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. The poll of 400 Democratic and 400 Republican likely caucus-goers has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points for each party.

Results from second poll
A Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll showed Clinton ahead of Obama by 31 percent to 27 percent, with Edwards a close third at 24 percent.

In that same poll, Huckabee held a statistically insignificant one-point edge over Romney, 29 percent to 28 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain was a distant third with 11 percent.

The poll of 934 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 867 likely Republican caucus-goers was taken Wednesday through Saturday and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for the Democrats and 3.4 percentage points for the Republicans.

"We have two very tight races that are too close to call," said pollster John Zogby. "But there is a lot of potential for things to change here."

Clinton, Obama and Edwards have battled for the Democratic lead for months in Iowa, where a win can generate huge momentum for later contests. The Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll showed Clinton, who would be the first woman in the White House, narrowly leading Obama among women voters and ahead among older voters, who are the most likely to participate.

Obama, who would be the first black president, held a big lead among younger voters, whose participation is more unpredictable.

Dedication tracked
The poll found Clinton's supporters were the most dedicated, with 76 percent saying their support was "very" strong, compared to 65 percent for Edwards and 56 percent for Obama.

Under Iowa's arcane caucus rules, candidates must receive support from 15 percent of the participants in each precinct to be viable. If not, their supporters can switch to other candidates.

Edwards was the most popular second choice with 30 percent, while Obama had 25 percent and Clinton only 12 percent.

Among Republicans, where Huckabee's recent surge to the top of many Iowa polls has been fueled by support among religious conservatives, the former Baptist preacher led among those who said they were "very" conservative, and born-again Christians.

About half of Romney and Huckabee's supporters described their backing as "very" strong.

The race for third among Republicans is wide open between McCain, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul, all of whom could take some solace from a strong finish and hope to generate momentum for the next contests.

McCain and Giuliani have barely competed in Iowa, preferring to focus on New Hampshire and a big round of contests on Feb. 5, respectively. Thompson largely ignored the state until launching a final push here in the week before Christmas.



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22440088/

http://www.reuters.com/article/domestic ... 22&sp=true


DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead in Iowa four days before the state opens the presidential nominating race, while Republicans Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are virtually tied, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

Clinton, a New York senator, led Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois 31 percent to 27 percent, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards a close third at 24 percent and no other Democratic contender registering in double-digits.

Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, held a statistically insignificant one-point edge over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 29 percent to 28 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain was a distant third with 11 percent.

Three Republicans, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, registered 8 percent in the poll.

The poll found about 6 percent of likely caucus-goers in each party are uncertain of their choice in Thursday's contest, the first big test in the state-by-state battle to choose candidates for the November presidential election.

"We have two very tight races that are too close to call," said pollster John Zogby. "But there is a lot of potential for things to change here."

The poll of 934 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 867 likely Republican caucus-goers was taken Wednesday through Saturday and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for the Democrats and 3.4 percentage points for the Republicans.

CLINTON'S NARROW EDGE WITH WOMEN VOTERS

Clinton, Obama and Edwards have battled for the Democratic lead for months in Iowa, where a win can generate huge momentum for later contests. The new poll showed Clinton, who would be the first woman in the White House, narrowly leading Obama among women voters and ahead among older voters, who are the most likely to participate.

Obama, who would be the first black president, held a big lead among younger voters, whose participation is more unpredictable.

Delaware Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson each earned 5 percent, with Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd at 1 percent and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich below 1 percent.

The poll found Clinton's supporters were the most dedicated, with 76 percent saying their support was "very" strong, compared to 65 percent for Edwards and 56 percent for Obama.

Under Iowa's arcane caucus rules, candidates must receive support from 15 percent of the participants in each precinct to be viable. If not, their supporters can switch to other candidates.

Edwards was the most popular second choice with 30 percent, while Obama had 25 percent and Clinton only 12 percent.

Among Republicans, where Huckabee's recent surge to the top of many Iowa polls has been fueled by support among religious conservatives, the former Baptist preacher led among those who said they were "very" conservative, and born-again Christians

If these polls are an accurate representation of what’s happening in Iowa this would amount to a 10 point loss for the Huckster is two weeks. Could it be the MSM polish is starting to tarnish a bit?

Yes
They failed with the Huckster so now thier new
fair haired boy they are pushing is Juan McKlown

We've already been there , done that