Thread: Super Tuesday preview: What’s at stake

Super Tuesday preview: What’s at stake



The candidates will fight to win the 437 delegates up for grabs. | AP Photos
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By JONATHAN MARTIN | 3/5/12 4:41 AM EST Updated: 3/5/12 9:37 AM EST


WILMINGTON, Ohio — Mitt Romney won’t sweep the 10 states that vote on Super Tuesday, but the collective results are likely to reaffirm his inevitability as the GOP’s presidential standard-bearer.

That’s partly because the front-runner is poised to win more of the 437 delegates at stake than his rivals, thanks to all-but-certain wins in Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont and Idaho.

But Romney’s prospects will also get a boost Tuesday in states that he may not even win.

He’ll take delegates out of Ohio and Tennessee — both of which he visited over the weekend and where polls show him closing in on Rick Santorum — as well as Georgia.

The Peach State is where Romney may actually win by losing. Having staked his candidacy on the state he once represented in Congress, Newt Gingrich is on track to win Georgia. That means he’ll have a rationale for staying in the race, continuing to deprive Santorum of a one-on-one shot at Romney and cutting into the conservative votes the former Pennsylvania senator needs to deny the establishment favorite the nomination.

“It’s just part of the game,” Santorum said when asked here about the specter of Gingrich siphoning votes on the right. “You’ve got to get out there and work hard.”

He was less sanguine about his plight by Sunday morning, though, griping on “Fox News Sunday” that “it’s always harder when you got two conservative candidates running in the race.”

But such a longer-term, divided-vote scenario may be academic if Romney racks up votes across regional lines on Tuesday and can project strength in the South.

“This is a test for all the candidates to demonstrate they are national candidates capable of winning broad support across the country,” said Romney strategist Stuart Stevens.

Here’s a state-by-state analysis of the most likely outcomes on the most significant day yet of the Republican battle:

OHIO

With 66 delegates, the Ohio primary is second to Georgia in terms of the largest prize Tuesday. But the results in the Midwestern battleground will be watched the most closely among the 10 states. A Romney win here, after his Michigan victory, would mark a second example of the former Massachusetts governor winning in a large, diverse Rust Belt state. If Santorum hangs on to his narrowing lead and wins a non-caucus contest in which he and Romney both fought hard to win, he’ll have a strong argument for forging ahead.

“It would be a huge boost and keep the race continuing for a long time,” said Attorney General Mike DeWine, a Santorum backer of what a win in his state would mean.

An NBC/Marist poll released Sunday showed Santorum up just 2 percentage points, 34 percent to 32 percent, over Romney. Earlier polls showed the Pennsylvanian with a much wider lead. Backers of both candidates agree the race will be close, but some unaffiliated Ohio Republicans think Romney’s momentum will be enough to carry him to a close victory.

Romney drew about 1,500 people to a Saturday event outside Dayton, in the southwest Ohio GOP heartland.

“I spoke to a bunch of voters yesterday after the rallies, and everyone I talked to who came undecided came away supportive because of his positions on the issues and his energy,” said Sen. Rob Portman, Romney’s top backer in the state. “They see him as a winner in the fall, and that motivates them.”

Super Tuesday preview: What’s at stake - Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com

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