Immigration from Mexico to U.S. Now at 'Net Zero'
As many Mexicans returning to Mexico as coming to the U.S. legally and illegally

WOAI LOCAL NEWS
by Jim Forsyth
Monday, October 10, 2011

At a time when illegal immigration has become a 'make or break' issue among Tea Partiers and Republican Party activists, Mexico's Secretary for Mexicans Living Abroad tells 1200 WOAI's Michael Board that the number of Mexicans entering the U.S. illegally is stable for the first time in two decades, with just as many illegal immigrants returning home to Mexico as are entering the U.S. illegally.

"We do believe that is happening and there are a lot of reasons for that," Secretary Javier Deleon, a member of President Felipe Calderon's cabinet, told 1200 WOAI news during a stop at UTSA. "One of the main reasons, of course, is the economy. The economy of the U.S. is not demanding jobs the way it used to."

Deleon's comments mirror studies done by Princeton University and the Pew Hispanic Center, which also have indicated that illegal immigration from Mexico and other Latin American countries has slowed to a trickle.

Four main reasons are given for this. One is increased border security in the U.S., and the fact that states like Arizona and Alabama have passed laws severely restricting the activities of illegal immigrants.

But Deleon and others say three other factors have far more to do with the slowing of illegal immigrations into the U.S. At the same time that the U.S. economy is stagnating, the Mexican economy is surging. Mexico's unemployment rate is roughly 5%, nearly half of that in the U.S., and Mexico's economy is now turning out jobs which pay a lot more. At the same time, Mexico's educational and training opportunities for its young citizens are rapidly improving.

But perhaps the main reason for the slowing immigration pattern is demographics. In the 1960s and 1970s, Mexico had the highest birth rate in the world, with the average Mexican woman giving birth to more than five children. That created a population explosion which came of age in the 1990s and 2000s, which was far greater than any economy could have absorbed. Since the 1980s, that birth rate has fallen to about 2.2 children per woman, only slightly higher than birth rates in the U.S., and about enough to make up for natural deaths.

"Of course a lot of people who support anti immigrant legislation would probably say this is thanks to them," Deleon said. "We think it has a lot more to do with the fact that the jobs are simply not there (in the U.S.) any more."

Deleon says his office has concluded that the number of people going to the U.S. from Mexico and the number who are returning to Mexico have reached equilibrium.

"Between people going back to the United States to Mexico, both voluntary and involuntary, and people coming here from Mexico, Mexico to U.S. migration, that is a net zero now," he said.

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