Thread: In Tehran, Iranians Play Down Milestone

In Tehran, Iranians Play Down Milestone

By THOMAS ERDBRINKJAN. 16, 2016

Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on Saturday. International sanctions on Iran related to its nuclear activities were expected to be lifted soon. Credit Atta Kenare/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

TEHRAN — On the day that crushing international sanctions against Iran were to be lifted, state television opened its morning hourly news program with an item on children’s vaccinations. There were no flag-waving youths or cheering crowds on Tehran’s streets, just the usual Saturday morning rush hour, the start of the Iranian workweek.

The low-key reception given “implementation day,” when the nuclear deal was finally completed and Iran was freed to rejoin the international economy, reflected the multiple disappointments and broken promises Iranians have experienced in the two years the negotiations dragged on. While the government talked up the deal to lift people’s hopes, few expected to see any improvement in their lives.

“I haven’t seen any excitement,” said Ali Shoja, an office cleaner riding the Tehran subway on his way to work. “They speak of billions of dollars coming, but as in the past, I don’t expect those dollars to reach my pockets.”

Even the swap of seven Iranians held in American prisons for the Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian and three other Americans held here failed to stir up interest.

State television had its own reason to play down the milestone. The end to the sanctions is a success for the government of President Hassan Rouhani, but comes at a cost for Iran’s ruling system. Since the deal was signed in July, Iran has had to put into storage more than 12,000 centrifuges, ship out almost its entire stockpile of enriched uranium and remove the core of its heavy-water reactor. Many officials, especially hard-liners, find it hard to present the nuclear agreement as a victory, especially when so much was given up in compromise.

“Nuclear burial,” the hard-line newspaper Vatan-e Emrouz wrote in a headline on its front page on Saturday, showing a picture of freshly poured concrete, similar to what replaced the core of the reactor.

The government, at odds with the hard-liners, prefers to focus on the economic gains Iran can expect now that sanctions, some in place since 2007, are lifted. Mr. Rouhani also emphasizes at almost every opportunity how, during his administration, Iran has stepped out of its isolation.

Indeed, the German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, is planning his second visit to the country; the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, will visit Tehran on Jan. 22; and Mr. Rouhani will visit Italy and France immediately after Mr. Xi leaves.

At the center of the diplomatic activity stand the big rewards of the nuclear agreement — Iran’s vast natural resources, which go well beyond oil and gas, and access to one of the last untapped markets in the world. Several deals have already been made, and await only the lifting of the sanctions.

Mr. Rouhani likes to call the deal a “win-win” for both sides, though conservatives in both Iran and the United States say it is more win-lose, with the other side winning. Whatever the outcome of that debate, Iran indisputably will once again be able to sell its oil and make international financial transactions. But as Europe and Asia gear up for their share of the bonanza, businesses in the United States, the main broker of the nuclear agreement, will mostly be watching from the sidelines.

Iran’s appetite for investments and imports goes beyond its oil and gas industry, though officials here have said they need at least $150 billion and possibly much more to keep crude oil flowing in the coming decades. “Basically we need everything: hundreds of planes, new ports, an update of our infrastructure,” said Saeed Laylaz, an economist close to Mr. Rouhani’s government.

American companies are showing interest, but sanctions dating to 1984, when Iran was designated a state sponsor of terrorism, will force them to work through subsidiaries. Because of that, one analyst predicted, European and Asian companies will divvy up the Iranian market.

American companies “will wait at least until after the U.S. presidential elections” before making any serious moves, to see who wins, said Amir Cyrus Razzaghi, the president of the Ara Enterprise Group, a Tehran-based business consultancy. The risk of a Republican winning and reimposing harsh sanctions, he said, was too great. “In reality, any American company will only come a year later.”

It might take even longer, given the hodgepodge of sanctions still in place and removable only by a Republican-dominated Congress that has no interest in lifting them.

With some exceptions, there is still an American trade embargo with Iran, largely preventing most Americans from doing business with Iran and vice versa. While Iranian financial institutions will once again have access to the international banking system, they generally cannot use it to conduct transactions that go to — or even through — the United States, as many major financial transactions now do.

“Iran was under sanctions before the nuclear issue came about, and the window of business that the United States will be able to do with Iran will remain quite narrow, almost as narrow as it is now,” said Farhad Alavi, the managing partner of the Akrivis Law Group, a Washington firm that specializes in sanctions law and export controls.

Even after implementation day, a complicated maze of exceptions to the remaining American sanctions will “give much pause” to United States businesses, Mr. Alavi said.

Iran complied with the requirements of the nuclear deal at breakneck speed, something that analysts attributed to Mr. Rouhani’s wish to bring that triumph to critical parliamentary elections in February. But there was another reason. Insiders admit that the government is near bankruptcy, after years of burning up savings, and that the economy has all but ground to a halt.

Iranians see the signs everywhere. “My husband owns a shop for ladies’ coats, and he hasn’t sold a thing in the past few weeks,” said Mojgan Faraji, an unemployed former journalist. The implementation of the deal will “mostly have a positive psychological impact,” she said. “After that, we’d have to wait to see whether purchasing power will increase.”

Under the weight of the sanctions, declining oil sales and, lately, declining oil prices, Tehran has been forced to scrap direct cash handouts for some of the wealthier strata of society. Middle-class Iranians, hurt by inflation that only recently declined from 42 percent to 12 percent, wonder whether the rate has really dropped as far as the government has been saying.

“What is getting cheaper, tell me?” one housewife could be overheard saying in a Tehran taxi last week. Gasoline and utilities have become more expensive, as have rents. Housing prices have recently gone down, the Tehran real estate organization has said. But a slump in sales has also been reported.

Few think the lifting of sanctions will mean an overnight improvement in their financial situation. Cynicism has the upper hand, after years of what many say were empty promises of improvement.

“I do not follow the nuclear news,” said Ali Baseri, a 45-year-old printing-house worker who was taking his father to the hospital. “How will this solve my economic problems? I do not care, and I don’t see anybody around me caring.”

Many point to the drop in oil prices. Historically, oil sales have provided a third to a half of the government’s annual budget expenditures. But the price collapse now endangers that.

Iran itself will contribute to the problem after sanctions are lifted, adding 500,000 barrels a day on top of the approximately 1.2 million barrels now being produced daily. The aim, the oil minister, Bijan Zangeneh, has repeatedly said, is to eventually return to the former production capacity of 4 million barrels a day.

“Iran is determined and will be able to fulfill its wish to increase the export of oil and gas, even if the oil price drops to $5 per barrel,” Farshad Ghorbanpour, an analyst in Tehran, said. He also said that after implementation, Iran’s fleet of oil tankers could once again obtain international insurance and start working.

The end of the sanctions will also give a lift to trade and commerce. “Now, we have over 1,000 letters of credit waiting to be accepted by international banks,” said Hamidreza Taraghi, a political commentator with close ties to the government.

Mr. Razzaghi, the consultant, said he was entertaining representatives from a Turkish company who were thinking of investing over $100 million in food processing operations. He also said that a European bank had shown interest in the potential purchase of a midsize Iranian bank.

“But that would be a long process, maybe two to three years,” he said. “What matters is that after the implementation things will start moving.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/wo...sanctions.html

Sanctions lifted after Iran found in compliance on nuclear deal

By Don Melvin and Michael Martinez, CNN
Updated 5:51 PM ET, Sat January 16, 2016

(CNN)Iran has completed the necessary steps in a deal to restrict its nuclear program, meaning international economic sanctions are lifted, officials from the EU and the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency said Saturday.

"Relations between Iran and the IAEA now enter a new phase. It is an important day for the international community. I congratulate all those who helped make it a reality," said Director General Yukiyo Ama of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

European Union Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini said that the economic sanctions against Iran were lifted now that the country has joined the UK, United States, France, Germany, China and Russia in "the field of peaceful users" of nuclear energy.

President Barack Obama signed an executive order lifting some of the U.S. economic sanctions on Iran, the White House announced.

Secretary of State John Kerry issued a statement confirming the IAEA has verified that Iran "has fully implemented its required commitments."

"Iran has undertaken significant steps that many, and I do mean many, people doubted would ever come to pass. And that should be recognized, even though the full measure of this achievement can only be realized by assuring continued full compliance in the coming years," Kerry said.

Kerry called the world a safer place because of the developments.

"Today marks the moment that the Iran nuclear agreement transitions from an ambitious set of promises on paper to measurable action in progress. Today, as a result of the actions taken since last July, the United States, our friends and allies in the Middle East, and the entire world are safer because the threat of the nuclear weapon has been reduced," Kerry said.

UK Foreigh Secretary Philip Hammond echoed Kerry's comment saying the deal "makes the Middle East and the wider world a safer place." He added that Iran's nuclear program has been substantially rolled back.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani welcomed the IAEA announcement.

"Implementation Day -- I thank God for this blessing & bow to the greatness of the patient nation of Iran. Congrats on this glorious victory!" Rouhani said via Twitter.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius called Saturday's news "an important step for peace and security."

'Implementation Day'

Iran's foreign minister arrived in Vienna saying he was confident the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog would certify that his country was complying with the terms of a deal to restrict its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of some international economic sanctions.

The IAEA -- the U.N. nuclear watchdog organization -- released its report assessing Iran's compliance with an agreement with foreign powers, including the United States and the European Union.

Many observers expected the IAEA would corroborate Iranian compliance.

The release heralds "Implementation Day," the formal name for the start of the next phase in the agreement called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was hammered out with Iran in July. The new "Day" will mean the first wave of economic relief for Iran.

Before the announcement, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had already exuded confidence in a post to Twitter shortly after arriving in Vienna that the milestone has been met. "#ImplementationDay, it's now time for all -- especially Muslim nations -- to join hands and rid the world of violent extremism. Iran is ready."

Zarif continued his exuberance in a subsequent posting later in the day.

"We're getting to #ImplementationDay. Nothing serious. Diplomacy requires patience, but we all know that it sure beats the alternatives," he said on Twitter.

Under the agreement, in exchange for lifting sanctions Iran is obliged to take steps to put it further away from developing a nuclear weapon while keeping a peaceful nuclear energy program.

In a possible sign of the thaw in relations, it was announced that Iran had freed four American prisoners, including Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian, as part of a prisoner swap deal, according to Iran's semi-official FARS news agency, which quoted the Tehran prosecutor.

Iran has various obligations under the nuclear agreement.

It must reduce its level of uranium enrichment, dramatically reduce the size of its stockpile of enriched uranium, reduce the number of centrifuges, and agree to unfettered international inspections.

But not all nuclear-related sanctions will be rescinded immediately -- that won't happen for about 10 years, should the deal hold. But this month's milestone will mean Iran will be able to sell its oil again on world markets and its banks will be able to connect to the global system.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middle...-nuclear-deal/

I'm happy to see the nuclear system in Iran being disabled and normal trade relations being restored at least with the rest of the world. I'll be even happier when there are no nuclear weapons in Iran and normal trade relations with the United States can commence when Iran is no longer involved with terrorist activities or the underwriting of them.

Iranians are Persians. They know better. They've allowed their Muslimism to control their country instead of separate their religion from government. They've suffered mightily and contributed to great suffering throughout the world because of this Theocracy. I hope the leaders of Iran will realize that so long as they are controlled by their churches and religion, they will always be less than what they could have otherwise been. Religion is supposed to be a personal spiritual relationship, one that is voluntary, individual and private. Persians know this, so why they have chosen this other road, I do not know, but it's not my answer to find, it's the quest best undertaken by the Iranian people, and a problem they must solve not only for themselves but throughout the Middle East and everywhere Muslimism controls the lives of a nation's citizens.

I don't trust Iran an further than I can throw the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei!