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Poll: Thompson slides, Romney climbs in New Hampshire
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/19/nh.gop.poll/


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war Rep. Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire between Wednesday and Sunday. Pollsters surveyed 404 Republican voters for the survey, which had a sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Thompson came into the GOP race late with the hope of winning social conservatives unsatisfied with the rest of the party's field, and racked up a key endorsement from the National Right to Life Committee last week.

But the former star of the television drama "Law and Order" has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State.The Texas congressman, who once ran for president on the Libertarian Party ticket, has gained notice as the sole advocate of a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq among the GOP field -- and he raised eyebrows in Washington earlier this month when supporters said they raised $4.3 million in a single day of online fundraising. The figure can't be independently confirmed until Federal Election Commission reports are filed at the end of the year.

Among other contenders, Huckabee -- gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses -- claimed 5 percent support in the poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Thompson's negatives have grown sharply since he entered the race.

In July, a CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire Republicans found 30 percent would not support him "under any circumstances" -- but in the new poll, that figure grew to 50 percent.

McCain's rating on the same question declined from 38 percent to 29 percent over the same period; Romney's showed a slight increase, from 17 percent to 19 percent; and the number of people who said they could not support Giuliani on any terms grew from 22 percent to 28 percent.

"New Hampshire Republicans are beginning to see a two-man race for the nomination: Romney versus Giuliani." said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

"Only 8 percent believe McCain is a likely national winner. That could be holding his numbers down in New Hampshire -- a state he has to win."

The war in Iraq remains GOP primary voters' top concern, though its importance has dropped since summer.

The issue is a major strength for McCain, a leading advocate of the 10-month-old U.S. campaign to pacify Baghdad and its surrounding provinces: Those polled rated him most capable of managing the four-year-old war by about a 3-1 margin when compared with Romney and Giuliani.

But the issue has faded since July, while likely voters' concerns about terrorism and illegal immigration have grown.

Those who ranked immigration the country's most important problem grew from 11 percent in July to 16 percent in November, while terrorism grew from 11 percent to 15 percent.


Giuliani's management of the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, attack on the World Trade Center has become a central selling point of his campaign, and GOP voters ranked him best-equipped to handle terrorism. Meanwhile, former businessman and 2002 Winter Olympics organizer Romney beat the other top contenders by better than 3-to-1 when it came to managing the economy, taxes and immigration.

But the poll suggests the GOP race remains fluid with about two months left before the New Hampshire primary, the official date of which remains unsettled. Only 14 percent of those surveyed said they had definitely decided on a candidate, while 29 percent said they were leaning toward one -- and 56 percent were still trying to decid



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http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/11/19/relnh6a.pdf

The Texas congressman, who once ran for president on the Libertarian Party ticket, has gained notice as the sole advocate of a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq among the GOP field -- and he raised eyebrows in Washington earlier this month when supporters said they raised $4.3 million in a single day of online fundraising. The figure can't be independently confirmed until Federal Election Commission reports are filed at the end of the year.

Among other contenders, Huckabee -- gaining ground ahead of the Iowa caucuses -- claimed 5 percent support in the poll. Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has made opposition to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, drew 1 percent; and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent.

Thompson's negatives have grown sharply since he entered the race.

In July, a CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire Republicans found 30 percent would not support him "under any circumstances" -- but in the new poll, that figure grew to 50 percent.

McCain's rating on the same question declined from 38 percent to 29 percent over the same period; Romney's showed a slight increase, from 17 percent to 19 percent; and the number of people who said they could not support Giuliani on any terms grew from 22 percent to 28 percent.

"New Hampshire Republicans are beginning to see a two-man race for the nomination: Romney versus Giuliani." said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

"Only 8 percent believe McCain is a likely national winner. That could be holding his numbers down in New Hampshire -- a state he has to win."

The war in Iraq remains GOP primary voters' top concern, though its importance has dropped since summer.

The issue is a major strength for McCain, a leading advocate of the 10-month-old U.S. campaign to pacify Baghdad and its surrounding provinces: Those polled rated him most capable of managing the four-year-old war by about a 3-1 margin when compared with Romney and Giuliani.

But the issue has faded since July, while likely voters' concerns about terrorism and illegal immigration have grown.

Those who ranked immigration the country's most important problem grew from 11 percent in July to 16 percent in November, while terrorism grew from 11 percent to 15 percent.


Giuliani's management of the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, attack on the World Trade Center has become a central selling point of his campaign, and GOP voters ranked him best-equipped to handle terrorism. Meanwhile, former businessman and 2002 Winter Olympics organizer Romney beat the other top contenders by better than 3-to-1 when it came to managing the economy, taxes and immigration.

But the poll suggests the GOP race remains fluid with about two months left before the New Hampshire primary, the official date of which remains unsettled. Only 14 percent of those surveyed said they had definitely decided on a candidate, while 29 percent said they were leaning toward one -- and 56 percent were still trying to decid



3. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone, or do have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?
November September July
2007 2007 2007
Definitely decided 14% 13% 7%
Leaning toward someone 29% 21% 22%
Still trying to decide 56% 66% 71%

4. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY I’m going to read you the names of the candidates who are either running or considering running for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for
the Republican nomination --
Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson or someone else? (RANDOM
ORDER)
November September July June
2007 2007 2007 2007
Romney 33% 25% 34% 29%
McCain 18% 18% 12% 20%
Giuliani 16% 24% 20% 22%
Paul 8% 4% 2% 3%
Huckabee 5% 3% 2% 2%
Thompson 4% 13% 13% 12%
Tancredo 1% 1% 1% 1%
Hunter * 1% * 1%
Someone else 1% 1% 3% 2%
No opinion 14% 9% 13% 8%

5. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY Next I'm going to read the names of some of those candidates. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would consider supporting that person for the Republican nomination or whether you would not support them for the
nomination under any circumstances. (RANDOM ORDER)

a. Would you consider supporting Rudy Giuliani for the Republican nomination or would you not
support him for the nomination under any circumstances?
b. Would you consider supporting John McCain for the Republican nomination or would you not
support him for the nomination under any circumstances?
c. Would you consider supporting Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination or would you not support
him for the nomination under any circumstances?
d. Would you consider supporting Fred Thompson for the Republican nomination or would you not
support him for the nomination under any circumstances?
e. Would you consider supporting Ron Paul for the Republican nomination or would you not support
him for the nomination under any circumstances?
Would Not
Would Support
Currently Consider Under Any No
Supporting Supporting Circumstances Opinion
Mitt Romney
November, 2007 33% 45% 19% 3%
July, 2007 33% 45% 17% 5%
John McCain
November, 2007 18% 51% 29% 2%
July, 2007 12% 45% 38% 5%
Rudy Giuliani
November, 2007 16% 54% 28% 3%
July, 2007 18% 54% 22% 5%
Fred Thompson
November, 2007 4% 38% 50% 9%
July, 2007 13% 37% 30% 20%
Ron Paul
November, 2007 8% 22% 61% 10%
NOTE: Figures in the "currently supporting" column represent all respondents who said that candidate
was their first choice in Question 4

6. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY Compared to previous elections, are you moreenthusiastic about voting in next year’s presidential election than usual, or less enthusiastic?
November
2007
More enthusiastic 46%
Less enthusiastic 29%
As enthusiastic/same (vol.) 25%
No opinion 1%

7. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY Which Republican candidate do you think ismost likely to win the Republican nomination?
November
2007
Romney 39%
Giuliani 26%
McCain 8%
Paul 2%
Huckabee 1%
Thompson *
Tancredo 0
Hunter 0
Someone else *
No opinion 25%


8. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY There are many issues facing the candidates in the
election for president. In your opinion, which one issue is MOST IMPORTANT to YOUR
VOTE in the presidential primary? Which is next most important? What is the third most
important?
1st 2nd 3rd
Resp. Resp. Resp.
War in Iraq 22% 19% 11%
Illegal immigration 16% 12% 10%
Terrorism/Homeland security 15% 8% 5%
Economy 12% 19% 16%
Health care 8% 14% 14%
Taxes 4% 8% 11%
Abortion 3% 2% 2%
Foreign policy 3% 1% 3%
Budget deficit 2% 4% 3%
Education 1% 4% 5%
Gun control 1% * 1%
Morality 1% 1% 1%
Medicare/prescription drugs 1% 1% 2%
Social Security 1% 2% 4%
Electing a Republican 1% * 1%
Employment/jobs 1% * 1%
Gay marriage * 1% 0
Other 6% 2% 8%
No opinion 5% 2% 4%
*Multiple responses possible. Percentages sum to more than 100%.
FIRST RESPONSE ONLY
November July June March/April
2007 2007 2007 2007
War in Iraq 22% 30% 36% 29%
Illegal immigration 16% 11% 11% 5%
Terrorism/Homeland security 15% 11% 10% 7%
Economy 12% 16% 9% 13%
Health care 8% 6% 8% 9%
Foreign policy 3% 7% 3% 6%
Abortion 3% 2% 6% 2%
Education 1% 1% 2% 2%



8. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for
each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if they were elected
President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person.
Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: (ITEMS ROTATED)
A. Terrorism
Giuliani 33%
McCain 31%
Romney 13%
Paul 3%
Thompson 2%
Huckabee 1%
Tancredo 0
Hunter 0
Someone else 1%
None 1%
No opinion 15%
B. The economy
Romney 47%
Giuliani 15%
McCain 9%
Paul 7%
Thompson 2%
Huckabee 1%
Tancredo 0
Hunter 0
Someone else 1%
None 2%
No opinion 17%
C. Taxes
Romney 43%
Giuliani 13%
McCain 11%
Paul 9%
Huckabee 3%
Thompson 3%
Tancredo *
Hunter 0
Someone else *
None 2%
No opinion 17%
CNN/WMUR/UNH Poll -6- November, 2007
D. Illegal immigration
Romney 40%
Giuliani 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 4%
Tancredo 3%
Huckabee 2%
Thompson 2%
Hunter *
Someone else 1%
None 2%
No opinion 17%
E. The war in Iraq
McCain 42%
Romney 15%
Giuliani 13%
Paul 5%
Thompson 3%
Huckabee 1%
Tancredo *
Hunter 0
Someone else 1%
None 2%
No opinion 17%
F. Abortion
Romney 21%
Giuliani 12%
Huckabee 7%
McCain 6%
Paul 4%
Thompson 4%
Tancredo *
Hunter *
Someone else 1%
None 4%
No opinion 40%


CNN/WMUR/UNH Poll -7- November, 2007

WOULD BEST HANDLE…
Romney Giuliani McCain
Economy 47% 15% 9%
Taxes 43% 13% 11%
Illegal immigration 40% 14% 13%
Abortion 21% 12% 6%
Iraq 15% 13% 45%
Terrorism 13% 33% 31%