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Two kinds of immigration

By Andrew M. Sum and Paul E. Harrington | October 16, 2006
DEBATES OVER immigration have intensified over the past few years, but the nation's understanding of how immigration affects the economy has not kept up. Both those who want to liberalize immigration laws and those who favor severe restrictions have often provided incomplete or misleading analyses of how current practices affect the nation's labor market. These commentators also often fail to distinguish between the more favorable economic impacts of legal immigration and the more negative consequences of illegal immigration.

The overall effects of new immigrant inflows from 2000 to 2005 on American labor markets are unprecedented. Between 2000 and 2005, the total number of employed workers 16 and older in the nation increased by 4.8 million. Over the same time period, the number of new immigrants entering the nation and finding work was estimated to be 4.13 million. This means that new immigrants accounted for 86 percent of the total gain in employment that the nation experienced over the past five years. Our analysis suggests that close to two-thirds of these new immigrant arrivals were unauthorized. Among males, all of the net growth in employment between 2000 and 2005 was attributable to new immigrants. This extraordinary finding casts serious doubt on the common contention that new immigrants simply take jobs that Americans do not want. Can anyone seriously claim that, of the nearly 2.8 million new jobs obtained by male immigrants, not one would have been taken by an American male?

Worse still, the impact of this displacement of native-born workers and established immigrants was concentrated among young people. The total number of native-born people ages 16 to 34 has increased over the past five years, while the number of these young people who reported being employed has fallen by 4.2 million. At the same time, the number of new immigrants ages 16 to 34 who found work between 2000 and 2005 increased by 2.7 million.

Available evidence shows that there has been a high rate of displacement of younger, native-born male workers and younger women without four-year college degrees by newer immigrants, especially undocumented immigrants. Our own statistical analysis of native-born adults under 25 revealed that higher inflows of new immigrant workers in their state of residence hurt their ability to find jobs. The negative effects were larger for young men than for women, for young adults with no postsecondary schooling, and for native-born black and Hispanic males. Not surprisingly, we found that young, native-born men with fewer years of schooling were the most adversely affected by new immigrant inflows.

The notion that there is a shortage of unskilled, low-educated workers in the United States and in Massachusetts is a canard. The evidence -- ranging from employment rates to measures of changes in annual earnings, weekly wages, and employee benefits -- reveals a surplus of less- educated workers in both national and state labor markets. The lifetime earnings of adults without high school diplomas over the past 25 years have declined catastrophically, and these declines have imposed increasing fiscal burdens on the rest of the taxpaying public.

Illegal immigration has also contributed to the growth of off-the-books jobs and the breakdown of American labor laws. Over the past five years, only one of every five additional workers in private-sector jobs in the United States has ended up on the formal payrolls of national private-sector employers, where payroll and income taxes are withheld and workers are protected by laws regarding workers' safety, health, and wages.

A number of employers and consumers gain from the hiring of illegal immigrants. Illegal immigration makes home remodeling, lawn care, housecleaning, child care, and other household services cheaper for more affluent homeowners. Some firms in construction, low-wage manufacturing, and the hospitality industry avoid immigration laws, wage and hour laws, and safety and health regulations to reduce labor costs and raise profits. Yet, these gains come at a price: declining employment and wage opportunities for some of our most vulnerable workers, denying them an opportunity to improve their long-run economic prospects.

Future debates over immigration reform need to clearly distinguish between the economic benefits and costs of legal and illegal immigration.

Andrew M. Sum is the director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University. Paul E. Harrington is associate director.

© Copyright 2006 Globe Newspaper Company.