Thread: Immigration: What will happen next?

Immigration: What will happen next?
Posted: Sunday, July 31, 2011 12:00 am

It should come as little surprise that illegal immigrants appreciate California’s gifts as much as citizens do, which may explain why we have the highest number of illegal entrants in the United States.

The Public Policy Institute of California has recently pulled together a wealth of data on illegal immigration, and again, there aren’t many surprises.

For example, we have an estimated 2.6 million undocumented people in our state, out of a total national illegal population of about 11 million.

Illegal immigrants make up 7 percent of the California population and more than 9 percent of its work force. And while these immigrants can be found in all of California’s 58 counties, they are concentrated generally where the rest of the population is to be found — in metropolitan areas, along the coast and in agricultural regions, where the jobs are. The Central Coast communities qualify in two of those categories.

Santa Barbara County has an estimated 37,000 undocumented immigrants, or about 9 percent of the county’s population. For comparison purposes, our neighbor to the south, Ventura County, has 74,000 illegals, or about 9.3 percent of its population, while San Luis Obispo County has about 9,000 illegal immigrants, or 3.5 percent of that county’s population.

The folks at the Public Policy Institute have done a credible job of pulling together a wide range of data, using everything from census counts to tax returns, to determine the effects of illegal immigration on California and its smaller political divisions.

The institute study’s conclusions also offer another piece of data — since 2008, the number of illegal immigrants in California has fallen by about a third of a million. That’s not a complete surprise, because California’s economy has been in the tank, meaning fewer jobs, thus tarnishing the streets-paved-with-gold notion so many citizens of other nations have envisioned in California.

At the same time our nation and state’s economic fortunes have been suffering, Mexico’s economy has been showing signs of life. Despite the drug lords and their killing sprees, Mexico has quietly been building a more solid middle class, for which jobs are more plentiful, families can get credit to buy homes and other big-ticket items, and access to education is improving.

Another release valve for the exodus has been the jobs situation in other states, notably Texas, Florida and in the Midwest. When California starting bleeding jobs, those other states offered more opportunity.

When coupled with the job opportunities elsewhere, and Mexico’s steadily improving economic climate, it’s not difficult to see how and why California’s illegal immigrant population is shrinking.

The question then becomes — what happens to the state and local economies if this labor pool shrinks too much? This could become an issue for policy makers.

A good example is here on the Central Coast. Local agriculture officials have estimated that there are roughly 15,000 field jobs available at various times, with about 10,000 of those jobs being filled by undocumented workers. If that percentage of the ag work force leaves, where does that leave local growers? Will U.S. citizens take those jobs? They might, if the pay is high enough, but it would certainly have to be much more than the existing work force is being paid. But what will that do to prices?

These are not rhetorical questions. A dynamic involving fewer undocumented workers is already at work. How will citizens and our policy makers respond?

Read more: http://santamariatimes.com/news/opinion ... z1TiwqdULu

For example, we have an estimated 2.6 million undocumented people in our state, out of a total national illegal population of about 11 million.

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And I've got a bridge to sell you in Fallujah.

There are over a million illegal aliens in Los Angeles County alone.

Take the 11 million and double it and you'll be in the ball park.