Thread: Trump Takes Lead in IBD/TIPP POLL

Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point With 2 Days Left: IBD/TIPP Poll

ED CARSON
5:42 AM ET

Donald Trump has moved into the lead over Hillary Clinton, 44% to 43% with two days left before Election Day, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. And the number of states in play is expanding.

The GOP and Democratic nominees had been tied for the prior four days. Libertarian Party pick Gary Johnson is at 5% while the Green Party's Jill Stein is at 2%.

The readings for all candidates are the same in the unrounded IBD/TIPP poll data. A day earlier, Clinton led by 0.5 point.

In a head-to-head matchup excluding third-party candidates, Clinton is ahead by 1.5 points, 45.3% to 43.8%, but that's down from 2.6 points a day earlier.

The poll of 903 likely voters from Nov. 2-5 reflects a weighted response of 309 Democrats, 289 Republicans and 247 independent and "other" voters. It has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.

The Real Clear Politics average of nine recent national polls as of early Sunday morning has Clinton up by 2.1 points in a four-way race. But it was 7.1 points as recently as Oct. 17.

Clinton had appeared on her way to victory until FBI Director James Comey disclosed on Oct. 28 that his agency was reopening its criminal investigation regarding Clinton's use of a private email server while secretary of state.

As national polls have tightened, Trump has closed the gap in several key states.

Fresh surveys in states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Colorado suggest that they may be in reach for the GOP nominee. Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics labels traditionally Republican states Arizona and Georgia as tossups.

Veteran election watcher Charlie Cook has backed away from his prediction less than two weeks ago that the race is "over."

"The race is in a different place than 8 or 9 days ago when there was virtually no path for Trump," the publisher of the Cook Political Report told The Hill on Saturday. "So yes, like everyone else, we've revised our assessment."

Trump has multiple paths to winning the White House. But he does need to win most of the battleground states, whereas Clinton only needs a few.

Cross-Country Campaigning

Both candidates are making multi-state stops daily to drive up turnout. Trump was in Florida, Nevada and Colorado Saturday, while Clinton made stops in Florida and Pennsylvania.

Early voting is heavier than ever in many states. Latino turnout appears to have been very strong so far in Nevada, prompting longtime local political reporter Jon Ralston to say that dooms Trump's chances in the Silver State. The RCP poll average shows Trump ahead by 2 points in Nevada.

In Reno Saturday evening, Secret Service agents rushed Trump off stage when a crowd thought a man holding a "Republicans Against Trump" sign had a gun. Secret Service found no firearm.

As for Clinton, heavy rain cut short a morning speech in Florida.

"My friends, you are a hearty bunch standing out here in the rain. I don't think I need to tell you all of the wrong things about Donald Trump," she said.

That evening she held an event in Philadelphia, where Katy Perry sang on her behalf. That followed a Friday night stop in Cleveland where music power couple Jay-Z and Beyoncé performed.

Trump said in Colorado Saturday night that such celebrity events are "demeaning to the political process."

Clinton will be back in Philadelphia for an election eve rally with President Obama and his wife Michelle.

That could mark some concern in the Clinton camp about Pennsylvania. But it's also one of the battleground states that doesn't have much early voting.

Michigan is another such state. Trump will campaign there Monday. Clinton and Obama will hold rallies in Michigan that day too. Ex-President Bill Clinton will stump there Sunday.

The Clinton campaign and allied groups have more money and organization to help get out the vote, while Trump is relying on his own star power and supporters' greater enthusiasm for their candidate.

Independents Favor Trump

Trump needs to win swing voters by a wide margin to sweep to victory. In the latest IBD/TIPP poll, he leads independents by 9 points, 40%-31%.

Notably, Johnson gets 12% of this key group and Stein 5%. Will independents actually pull the lever for third-party candidates, especially in tossup states where the outcome is in doubt?

Meanwhile, Trump leads among men 50%-38%, while Clinton leads among women, 48%-38%. She dominates with single women, 59%-25%, but married women favor Trump, 49%-38%.

http://www.investors.com/politics/do...-ibdtipp-poll/

Clinton Vs. Trump: IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll

IBD STAFF
5:40 AM ET

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The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections.

The latest results for the IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll will be released each morning by 6 a.m. ET.

Also look for daily videos with analysis of the latest results on our Facebook page and on Investors.com. About IBD/TIPP Poll
Day 19 Results: Nov. 6

Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point With 2 Days Left: IBD/TIPP Poll

poll_110616
Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Not sure
OVERALL 43.0% 44.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.6% 4.4%
Region
Northeast 47% 38% 4% 5% 1% 5%
Midwest 41% 51% 4% 1% 0% 3%
South 42% 48% 5% 1% 1% 4%
West 44% 36% 7% 2% 5% 6%
Age
18-44 40% 38% 11% 5% 3% 3%
45-64 41% 49% 4% 1% 1% 4%
65+ 49% 45% 1% 0% 0% 4%
Gender
Male 38% 50% 6% 1% 1% 3%
Female 48% 38% 4% 3% 2% 6%
Race
White 36% 52% 5% 1% 1% 4%
Black/Hispanic 72% 12% 4% 5% 3% 4%
Income
Under 30K 59% 27% 4% 3% 2% 6%
30K-50K 48% 38% 4% 5% 2% 3%
50-75K 38% 50% 8% 0% 0% 4%
75K+ 41% 49% 5% 1% 1% 2%
Education
High School 41% 47% 1% 3% 4% 4%
Some College 34% 54% 6% 1% 1% 4%
College Degree or more 47% 39% 6% 2% 1% 5%
Party
Democrats 90% 4% 0% 2% 1% 3%
Republicans 5% 90% 4% 0% 0% 1%
Ind./Other 31% 40% 12% 5% 4% 8%
Ideology
Conservative 17% 76% 4% 0% 0% 3%
Moderate 48% 31% 10% 2% 4% 4%
Liberal 88% 2% 1% 5% 1% 3%
Investor
Yes 44% 46% 4% 2% 1% 3%
No 43% 42% 8% 2% 2% 4%
Area Type
Urban 59% 23% 4% 4% 3% 7%
Suburban 41% 47% 7% 1% 1% 4%
Rural 35% 55% 4% 1% 2% 4%
Parental Status
Parents 39% 48% 7% 1% 2% 2%
Non-Parents 45% 42% 4% 2% 1% 5%
White
White men 31% 58% 7% 2% 1% 3%
White women 41% 47% 4% 1% 2% 5%
Black/Hispanic
Black 81% 7% 3% 4% 1% 4%
Hispanic 58% 21% 4% 6% 7% 4%
Women
Single women 59% 25% 4% 3% 3% 5%
Married women 38% 49% 4% 2% 1% 6%
Household Description
Upper/Upper Middle 44% 48% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 43% 44% 5% 3% 1% 5%
Working 45% 44% 4% 2% 1% 4%
Lower 39% 15% 0% 5% 31% 9%
Religion
Protestant 38% 52% 7% 2% 0% 2%
Catholic 42% 46% 2% 2% 1% 6%
Other 43% 49% 2% 1% 2% 2%
None 59% 19% 10% 3% 4% 4%
Union Household
Yes 53% 40% 1% 1% 1% 3%
No 41% 45% 6% 2% 2% 5%
Two-candidate question Clinton Trump Other Not sure
OVERALL 45.3% 43.8% 3.7% 7.2%

Intensity of Support Strong Moderate
Clinton 63% 36%
Trump 65% 33%

Zeitgeist (Likely To Win) Clinton Trump Too Close
Overall 43% 26% 25%
Democrats 79% 4% 14%
Republicans 14% 52% 31%
Independents 37% 25% 29%

Results based on survey of 903 likely voters conducted from 11/2 - 11/5. Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party identification breakdown:(Unweighted) 275 Democrats/333 Republicans/276 Independents; (Weighted) 309/289/247. Results in table above are based on weighted sample. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica uses "traditional" telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.

PRIOR RESULTS (PDF):

Nov. 5 | Nov. 4 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 2 | Nov. 1 | Oct. 31 | Oct. 30 | Oct. 29 | Oct. 28 | Oct. 27 | Oct. 26 | Oct. 25 | Oct. 24 |Oct. 23 | Oct. 22 | Oct. 21 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 19

http://www.investors.com/wp-content/...oll_110516.pdf

Related: Trump Leads in LA Times USC Poll by 5.6%.

http://www.alipac.us/f9/la-times-usc...-48%25-339981/