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The nation must address education and needs of Hispanics to replace baby boomers, report said

Karin Rives, Staff Writer

Nearly 1 in 4 United States residents will be Hispanic by 2030 if current demographic trends hold. That makes the nation dependent on the group to fill jobs that retiring baby boomers will leave, according to a study released Wednesday by a National Academy of Sciences research group.
But as a group, Hispanics are younger, poorer, less educated, more likely to drop out of high school and not as fluent in English as other ethnic groups.

The United States must address their educational and economic needs, or risk a severe shortage of skilled labor in coming decades, the study says.

The problem is particularly acute in North Carolina, a state with one of the fastest-growing Hispanic populations, said Marta Tienda, who led the two-year study, "Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies -- Hispanics and the American Future."

"North Carolina faces special challenges because it has not had the infrastructure for schooling immigrant children," she said. "You have to have experienced bilingual teachers who can connect with immigrant parents, or the kids will fall behind. Rural areas, in particular, are at a disadvantage."

More than 600,000 Hispanics are estimated to be making their home in North Carolina today. Many are children who advance through the public school system, but fail to make the critical leap to college, said Maria Fraser-Molina, chairwoman of the steering committee of the Hispanic/Latino Initiative at the N.C. Community College System.

"There are advantages to all of us if Hispanic students are well-educated and brought into the mainstream of the work force, but our challenges boil down to funding," she said.

The community college initiative was funded by a private grant in 2002 to reach out to public schools and to students of English as a Second Language to entice young Hispanics into academic programs. But the funding ended in 2005, and Fraser-Molina and other committee members have since tried to keep the program alive in their spare time with no paid staff.

The 82-million strong baby-boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, is turning 50 to the tune of 12,000 a day, with the first wave turning 60 this year. The generation that follows is much smaller.

"How do you replace 82 million with 67 million?" asked Jim Johnson, a demographer at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "The only way we will be able to compete in the marketplace is to embrace immigrants. It's in our self-interest to educate these newcomers."

Among the many disadvantages Hispanics face, according to the study by the National Research Council:

* Only one-third of those who were born abroad are fluent in English, compared with 88 percent of those born in the United States.

* In 2000, working-age Hispanics averaged nearly three years less formal schooling than U.S.-born blacks and whites.

* More than one-third of foreign-born Hispanics drop out of high school, compared with 14 percent of native-born students.

* Parents of Hispanic preschoolers are less likely than black, white and Asian parents to be fluent in English and less likely to read books to their children.

* Hispanic children make up nearly 20 percent of all school-age children, but only 4 percent of public-school teachers are Hispanic.

The result is a widening education, skills and wage gap between Hispanics and other groups, the study said. As a result, Hispanic wages trailed wages of other groups by $100 billion in 2000, and the gap could increase to $212 billion by 2030, it concluded.

Still, convincing elected officials to pour more money into education for Hispanics will be tough in the current economic and political climate, predicted Stephen Trejo, an associate professor of economics at the University of Texas-Austin who helped conduct research for the study.

"It's a hard sell to try to get people to care about educating other people's kids," he said. "What we're trying to point out is that there is a huge cost to not making that investment."

Staff writer Karin Rives can be reached at 829-4521 or krives@newsobserver.com.