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  1. #1
    Administrator ALIPAC's Avatar
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    Nov 2004
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    70 Seats? Swing Voters Are Flocking to GOP

    Swing Voters Are Flocking to GOP

    Wall Street Journal

    The Democrats' final push to woo undecided voters appears to have fizzled, potentially putting dozens of competitive House races beyond reach and undermining the party's chances in at least four toss-up Senate seats, according to party strategists and officials.

    Independents, a crucial swing bloc, seem to be breaking sharply for Republicans in the final days of the campaign.

    One nonpartisan prognosticator, Stuart Rothenberg, said Friday he thought the Republicans could pick up as many as 70 House seats—something no party has achieved since 1948. The Republicans need 39 seats to take the majority. Fading Democratic support among independents is also keeping alive the GOP's longer-shot hopes of taking the Senate.

    President Barack Obama planned to make a campaign stop Friday evening in Virginia, and stops this weekend in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio, to drum up support for congressional candidates. He triumphed in 2008 by attracting significant numbers of independents in key swing states.

    Party strategists say their biggest problem now is swing voters' frustration with the president, prompting some to start fretting about the impact of this disenchantment on the 2012 elections.

    Democratic pollster David Beattie said independents were voting against Democrats because of Mr. Obama. The Democrats "are being called 'Obama liberals,' and it's working," Mr. Beattie said. "This race is all about President Obama."

    Nationally, independent voters, who backed Democrats in 2006 and 2008, have swung to the GOP. In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 52% said they would vote Republican next week. The survey found Mr. Obama, who won 52% of independents nationally in 2008, has a job-approval rating of just 40% among that group.

    With enthusiasm ebbing on the left, Democratic candidates needed this year to win over even more independent voters than Mr. Obama did in 2008, strategists said. Candidates who have been banking on making up this ground in the closing days have instead seen independent voters flocking to the GOP.

    Virginia's Rep. Rick Boucher, who has comfortably held his seat for 14 terms, is one of many prominent House Democrats who have suffered in recent weeks from a sharp drop in support among independents. Just a month ago, his own polls showed him up by more than 12 points over his opponent, Republican state lawmaker Morgan Griffith.

    The race is now so close, Mr. Boucher said, "that it will all come down to who is better at getting out the vote on Election Day." Mr. Boucher attributed that slump mainly to a drop in support among independents.

    Mr. Griffith, his opponent, said a big factor was Mr. Boucher's ties to the president. Mr. Boucher was one of the first Democrats in Virginia to endorse Mr. Obama in 2007. "Mr. Obama and his policies are very unpopular here," Mr. Griffith said.

    In New Jersey, 11-term Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone has seen his lead over the Republican tea-party favorite Anna Little narrow rapidly as undecided independents have broken in Ms. Little's favor.

    "If Little wins, it will represent a complete annihilation of the Democrats in this race, and it could well happen," says Patrick Murray, who directs the state's Monmouth University Polling Institute. Across the state, he said, "independents are going for Republicans more than I've ever seen before."

    In the Senate races, Democrats have managed to solidify their lead in several key states, including California, Connecticut, Delaware and West Virginia. That makes it difficult—but not impossible—for the Republicans to get the 10 seats they need to capture that chamber.

    Ebbing support among independents is keeping that door open.

    Republicans are favored to pluck four seats held by Democrats in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Indiana and Arkansas. In addition, Democrats are fighting close races to retain their hold on Senate seats in Nevada—home to Majority Leader Harry Reid—Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Washington. To take the Senate, Republicans must win all those races, plus at least one of those seen as more safely in the Democratic column.

    In Mr. Obama's home state of Illinois, Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk has moved in the past month from winning 38% of independents to now winning half of them, according to a Chicago Tribune poll published last week. Mr. Kirk is locked in a dead heat with Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.

    In Pennsylvania, where Mr. Obama won independents by 19 points, Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey is winning them by 13 points over Democrat Joe Sestak, according to a CNN survey this week. The race appeared to tighten earlier this month, but in recent days Mr. Toomey seems to have moved back into a lead.

    Democrats say Mr. Sestak's trouble with independents could pose less of a challenge than in other Senate races, as Democrats hold a 1.2 million-voter edge in party registration in Pennsylvania, while only about one in 10 voters there is unaligned with the major parties.

    A strong turnout effort by the party and allied labor unions could be enough. Still, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell conceded losing independents makes the job much harder for any Democrat. "Can we win without getting our normal share of independent voters?" said Gov. Rendell. "We can, but it makes it much more unlikely."
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    The same trend is presenting a down-to-the-wire challenge for Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, who is locked in an apparent tie with Republican challenger Ken Buck.

    A Democratic poll this week showed Mr. Bennet winning a narrow plurality of independent voters, 41% to 34%. But party strategists say the senator needs about 60% of that bloc, about a third of the electorate, in order to make up for expected lower Democratic turnout.

    "Independents who helped Obama win in '08, are now giving GOP candidates significant edges, from the U.S. Senate to state legislative races across the country," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse.

    Democratic strategists said independents were taking out their frustrations against Democrats up and down the ballot, even in state legislative and citycouncil races.

    Tad Devine, a Democratic consultant who served as a senior adviser to the presidential campaigns of Al Gore and John Kerry, said the trend was striking this year. "They are behaving like Republicans," Mr. Devine said of independent voters. ... NewsSecond
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  2. #2
    Senior Member
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    May 2010
    republican AVALANCE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. #3
    Senior Member USPatriot's Avatar
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    Jun 2007
    SW Florida
    The Dems in Congress were warned and they did not listen to "We The People" so Bye Bye .

    Now if the Repubs do not listen... Bye Bye and Hello Third Party..........
    "A Government big enough to give you everything you want,is strong enough to take everything you have"* Thomas Jefferson

  4. #4
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    Nov 2009
    Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:46 pm Post subject:


    I will say 85 + In the house... 8 to 10 seats In the Senate.... I think It's 50/50 for the Republicans will take the Senate....

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by topsecret10
    Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:46 pm Post subject:


    I will say 85 + In the house... 8 to 10 seats In the Senate.... I think It's 50/50 for the Republicans will take the Senate.... TS
    "To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men." Abraham Lincoln

  6. #6
    Senior Member magyart's Avatar
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    Dec 2005
    Columbus, OH
    Republicans are going to win in Ohio, but they are the type of Republicans many of us voted against in 2010. I really don't look for them to change their stripes. They will want more "free trade" agreements and do little to support the middle class.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Aug 2005
    Quote Originally Posted by magyart
    Republicans are going to win in Ohio, but they are the type of Republicans many of us voted against in 2010. I really don't look for them to change their stripes. They will want more "free trade" agreements and do little to support the middle class.
    Here's what we must do with free trade Republicans, who really don't understand what they're doing. Republicans who are free traders are confused by the terms free markets and free trade. Republicans have always been avid supporters of free enterprise within the US but have never supported free trade treason until very recently, which is what free trade agreements are at the end of the day. Republicans must educate not only these members of their party on the difference between free market/free enterprise and free trade. The Republican Party was founded on the principles of protectionism that uses tariffs and quotas to manage INTERNATIONAL TRADE such that we either have trade balances or trade surpluses. Free trade does the exact opposite of that and bankrupts our economy and impoverishes our citizens with enormous trade deficits.

    We must work with the few free traders in the Republican Party who I believe are actually free enterprisers and free marketers, not free traders, but think it they oppose free trade then they're against free markets, and straighten them out the same way we've done those who supported amnesty.

    We assume too much of our politicians. We assume incorrectly that they know as much as we do about our country, history and economy, but that is often not the case, so it's our responsibility to inform them, to teach them, to lead them, and demand they follow our will or get their butts booted to the curb. Remember that there are a lot of Republicans who switched from the Democratic Party or who were Independents and became Republicans during the Reagan years. These Republicans are truly not informed about the history and principles of the Republican Party and it's the duty and obligation of life-time generational Republicans to teach them our political philosophy and the ways things are, have been and should always be.

    So yes, lets hope Republicans do well on November 2, 2010 because they will stop illegal immigration and reduce legal immigration numbers and do some other wonderful things for our economy, including hopefully passing the FairTax and repealing Obama Care, because they get it, so we'll work on those who don't quite get the free trade issue so they understand the value and necessity of protected trade and I'm confident they will very quickly get that one too.

    For anyone looking in, the difference between free market and free trade is free markets refers to our domestic markets within our boundaries and free trade applies to international markets wanting to trade with the US. We protect our free domestic markets by using tariffs and quotas to manage the international market so it doesn't destroy through unfair competition the very free markets we need to sustain our population. It's not complicated. It's very simple. Free markets = Domestic trade. Free trade = International trade. We want free markets/free enterprise within our boundaries and protected trade with international markets to protect our businesses, jobs, incomes, livelihoods and nation.

    Therefore, when you support free markets that's great! But when you support free trade that's treason because you've jeopardized the very economics that our citizens need to survive and prosper which are the domestic markets that employ them.

    Again, it's not complicated. It's really very simple.

    November 2, 2010. Make it count, folks.
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