http://www.shns.com/shns/g_index2.cfm?a ... A-06-14-06

On the border: The floating population

By JOSE DE LA ISLA
Hispanic Link News Service
14-JUN-06

Deployment of the Utah National Guard to support the U.S. Border Patrol in Arizona was the signal for beginning what public policy analysts call "unintended consequences." It means non-military "collateral damage."

For example, some experts predict that these actions will only increase the massing of would-be crossers on the Mexican side. Towns such as Tijuana, Mexicali, Agua Prieta, Ciudad Juarez, Reynosa and Matamoros _ already teeming with people _ will explode with new population. Already about 30 percent of migrants reaching the northern Mexican state of Tamaulipas remained as residents during the past decade, according Maricela Garza Wong, director of the state's Council on Population, or COESPO. They are referred to as the country's "floating population," poblacion flotante.

A dismaying scenario shows scarce basic services in water, sewage, health, housing and education tapping out. These resources become fewer and costlier, meanwhile the new concentrations bring more of the problem border towns already have too much of _ increased crime.

This happens because barriers and troops continue to increase the risk for those still wanting to cross the border illicitly. That leads to a huge price inflation, with some already occurring in central Mexico. Polleros, or people-smugglers, now charge about $5,000, up from about $2,000 not long ago. Two out of five undocumented border crossers are presumed to enter the United States aided by these human traffickers. In the 1980s such persons could be contracted for $200. More border walls increase the inflation. Add the National Guard presence and prices kick many northbound migrants out of the market. Some end up as permanent residents in Mexico's border communities. Others try the dangerous crossings by themselves or team with inexperienced, entrepreneurial gangs.

The new polleros likely come from the lower narcotics trafficking ranks. Those involved in human cargo must overcome logistical obstacles by paying off whomever they need to. As Jorge Santibanez, president of Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Tijuana explains, there are three layers of barriers to surmount, ones with heat sensors and cameras. So how does one avoid detection in these places? Officials and enforcement personnel on both sides of the border become bribe targets.

The way to solve our illegal-immigration problem is not by spending on human and concrete deterrents, nor by feeding the growth of underworld border networks. But there is more. Between 1986 and 2002, the Border Patrol budget increased from $151 million to $1.6 billion. Yet, since the 1970s, when 45 percent of Mexican illegal immigrants returned to Mexico, now that probability is 25 percent. Simply stated, the more that is spent, the lower the chance of detection!

Together, the treacherous trails, nefarious polleros and wrong-headed policies create a deadly cocktail. Between 2001 and 2005, nearly 2,000 migrants died trying to cross the border.

Queen Juliana of the Netherlands, whom I seldom quote, is purported to have once said about another matter: "I can't understand it. I can't even understand the people who can understand it." That fits this occasion.

The immigration challenge is being played out like a Ponzi game on the U.S. public. All eyes have turned to the Mexican border, even though that's not where most illegal entries occur. And the imposed policies only create extra hardships for the border towns and more danger for those who do cross, with rewards going to crooks.

The underlying causes for people who cross illegally over land or the Rio Grande are the circumstances around the diaspora. Those circumstances include economic factors, our national insatiable hunger for cheap labor, NAFTA, family displacements and political posturing, capped by aspects of war and violence.

One thing is sure _ the highly publicized and promoted current border policy needs to be turned on its head, taking its unintended consequences into account.


(Houston-based Jose de la Isla, author of "The Rise of Hispanic Political Power" (Archer Books, 2003), is a columnist for Hispanic Link News Service. E-mail joseisla3(at)yahoo.com.)