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After the Marches, Will California Latinos Vote?
by Randy Shaw, 2006-10-02

Earlier this year, immigrants’ rights marchers chanted “Today we March, Tomorrow we Vote.” Since that time, pro-immigrant legislation was derailed by House Republicans, and President Bush and Republican Senators are pressing instead for border control. Strategists have convinced Republicans that immigrant-bashing is a political winner, believing such appeals will increase conservative turnout without generating greater Latino voting. As a result, next month’s Latino voter turnout will be put under a microscope, as politicians will want to be on the winning side of the immigration battle for the 2008 elections. In California, a projected statewide low voter turnout could make it hard for Latinos to prove they responded to political attacks by voting. But a recent poll show identified Latinos as the one demographic sub-group in California that is more enthusiastic about voting than usual.

Last week, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) released a poll whose finding that Governor Schwarzenegger was far ahead of Phil Angelides got most of the media attention. But the poll also had valuable information regarding Latino voting.

First, the poll showed Spanish speaking likely voters disapproving of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at an even higher rate than they opposed President Bush. The Governor is losing among this group to Phil Angelides by a 64-21 margin, and this poll was taken prior to the Governor again vetoing the immigrant driver’s license bill.

Latino voters comprise about 18% of the California electorate, and more than half of those are primarily Spanish-speakers.

Second, the poll confirmed that California voters are not excited about the upcoming election. Overall, by a 40 to 32% margin voters are less enthusiastic about voting than usual.

Enthusiasm among Democrats is about the same. But California Republicans are less enthusiastic this year by a 44% to 26% margin.

Why are Republicans so glum? The obvious answer is the parallel to 1994, when Democrats stayed home in despair after their control of the White House and Congress brought few victories. Republicans had such high hopes after the 2004 elections that they have to be wondering how the ceiling could cave in on them so fast.

(And this poll was taken before Florida Republican Congressman Mark Foley resigned after sending sexual e-mail messages to a 16-year old male congressional page. Foley was the chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children).

But a less obvious explanation for California Republican malaise is that Governor Schwarzenegger has rendered the Party nearly irrelevant. The Governor throws Republicans a few bones on immigration issues, but otherwise makes deals with Democratic Legislators while Republicans are not even in the room.
A Schwarzenegger victory in November would represent a crushing defeat for the California Republican Party, as it would show how Republicans can only win by adopting a Democratic platform. The Governor has left the right-wing California Republican base less politically relevant than at any time in the past 100 years.

While Republicans are glum and Democrats are stoical, California Latinos are more enthusiastic about voting this year by a margin of 38 to 33%. If this translates into higher Latino voter turnout, and if this occurs in Colorado and other states as well, expect Congressional action on a pro-immigrant rights bill next year.

Frank Russo of CaliforniaProgressReport.com (an invaluable and highly recommended site) told me last week that he believes a strong Democratic turnout in November is still possible. Anti-Bush sentiment could be a positive turnout factor, as well as contested Congressional races against Republicans Doolittle, Pombo, and Bilbray. He noted that the Republican candidates for other state offices are so right-wing that it could also motivate Democrats to get to the polls.

While Ron Dellums’ win without a November runoff in the Oakland mayor’s race will reduce Oakland’s turnout, San Jose is having a heavily contested mayor’s race. Candidate Cindi Chavez is strongly backed by organized labor, which should result in a huge Latino and Democratic voter turnout in that well-populated city.

A low Democratic turnout could bring victory for abortion restrictions (Prop 85) and will certainly plunge Props 89 (public financing of elections) and 87 (tax on oil companies) to landslide defeats. That would be a terrible message for Californians to be sending to the nation on a night where the state’s Democratic Governor candidate could also go down to a double-digit defeat.

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