Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

  1. #1
    Administrator ALIPAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Gheen, Minnesota, United States
    Posts
    67,681

    ALIPAC: Vote adds fuel to immigration battle Cannon Jacob

    Vote adds fuel to immigration battle
    Cannon win won't end debate

    6/29/2006
    By Glen Warchol and Thomas Burr
    The Salt Lake Tribune

    Rep. Chris Cannon's defeat of John Jacob decisively ended the incumbent's primary threat, but the immigration debate that dominated the campaign is nowhere near settled.

    The White House says Cannon's victory proves Americans want comprehensive immigration reform. And some political observers hope the Utah election revived an immigration bill that appeared near death.

    On the other hand, Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., guru of the anti-illegal immigration movement, insists Cannon's hard-fought primary, achieved only with the president's direct intervention, has shifted the national debate closer to his hard-line enforcement position.

    "When I heard some of the things Chris Cannon was saying in the campaign, I was thinking I easily could be listening to me talk. It seemed like, by golly, he's finally getting tough on immigration," Tancredo said.

    To many observers and pundits nationally, the election decided by a scant 6,700 votes was seen as a "referendum on immigration reform." Yet before the final votes were counted, both sides were casting the results as somehow an approval of their positions.

    William Gheen, director of the Americans for Legal Immigration PAC that endorsed Jacob, offered solace to anti-illegal immigration activists in Utah. "This election was not a referendum," Gheen said. "It was a lightning rod."

    Cannon's victory Tuesday, which many believe was only possible with a saturation pre-recorded phone campaign that included President Bush and first lady Laura Bush, is only the start of a ballot-box revolt that will culminate in the November general elections, Gheen says. "This is the beginning. This is one race. The true test comes in November. This issue is going to be a hot button in at least half the races."

    White House spokesman Peter Watkins said Bush is still committed to immigration reform that includes a guest-worker program, and Cannon's triumph in the primary ''proves the American people are ready for lawmakers to pass comprehensive immigration reform."

    Though Cannon's victory likely only proves once again that officeholders are hard to beat - 98 percent of incumbents have been re-elected in recent times - the primary helps build congressional support for Bush's plan, according to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

    "This pumps their ability to get an immigration bill when just about everybody had written it off," Sabato said. "Those who were on the fence may use this as cover. And they may even reassure themselves that their jobs aren't on the line."

    Though Cannon displayed bravado on election night, calling his win a defeat of "extremism," Tancredo says the five-term congressman and his allies are scared. ''Here are people who now have to construct this image of 'tough on immigration,' tough on illegals. They have to construct a new persona to garner votes. It's fine with me if everybody wants to dance around the immigration issue,'' Tancredo said. ''They're dancing closer to my side of the field.''

    Other observers agree: A Cannon loss would have struck a severe blow to Congress passing any significant immigration reform, but his winning will not make it a sure thing.

    "One victory in one district in Utah is not going to make the whole House turn around and say let's pass that Senate bill," which includes a guest-worker program among other more immigrant-friendly measures, says Tamar Jacoby, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

    The race also proves, Jacoby says, that rousing anti-illegal immigration sentiment is "fool's gold" for Republican challengers. "It's always tempting," she said, "but in the last several decades it has not turned an election."

    Quin Monson, Assistant Director of the Center for the Study for Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, says Cannon unsuccessfully has been attacked on the issue in the last two primaries. "The primary suggests there is a sizable chunk of people who think immigration is a big issue, but not enough to run an election on."

    Brad Coker, managing director for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, also sees the anti-immigration activists as losers in the primary.

    "They are going to take a hit; they still haven't been able to take out a sitting congressman with their issue. This is going to continue to lend credence to the argument that immigration only plays to a narrow slice of the electorate."

    But the message is clouded because Cannon did not win the election as much as Jacob lost it in the final days through a series of missteps that included telling reporters Satan was undermining his campaign.

    "Jacob's biggest problem was that he was green as a candidate. When it came down to crunch time, a more skillful candidate would have been able to finish without stumbling," Coker said. As it was, "Cannon had to pull out every stop, including calling the president into a primary election."

    http://www.sltrib.com/utah/ci_3992680
    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  2. #2
    Administrator ALIPAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Gheen, Minnesota, United States
    Posts
    67,681
    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  3. #3
    Senior Member patbrunz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    3,590

    Re: ALIPAC: Vote adds fuel to immigration battle Cannon Jaco

    Quote Originally Posted by ALIPAC
    " . . . but not enough to run an election on."
    In Utah. What about states that are hard hit by illegal immigration?
    All that is necessary for evil to succeed is that good men do nothing. -Edmund Burke

  4. #4
    Senior Member LegalUSCitizen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Georgia
    Posts
    10,934
    On the other hand, Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., guru of the anti-illegal immigration movement, insists Cannon's hard-fought primary, achieved only with the president's direct intervention, has shifted the national debate closer to his hard-line enforcement position.

    "When I heard some of the things Chris Cannon was saying in the campaign, I was thinking I easily could be listening to me talk. It seemed like, by golly, he's finally getting tough on immigration," Tancredo said.
    On the news last night, immediately after telling about these election results they said that this race was a wake up call for Bush Administration. From what I could tell from what they said it sounded as though President Bush was beginning to make a significant change in his thinking.

    I don't know. But I do think that something is going on and that we probably need to be calling the White House Comments Line and say:

    Border Security and NO guest Worker Program.

    Here's the Number:

    1-202-456-1111

    I know it may be in vain, BUT WE CANNOT AFFORD TO THINK THAT WAY.

    It would be good to call today and tomorrow before the Fourth of July holiday. I've noticed that sometimes they do things over holidays when we are preoccupied. Please make this call.
    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  5. #5
    Administrator ALIPAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Gheen, Minnesota, United States
    Posts
    67,681
    I was thinking last night how amazing it was that any candidate could get 44% of the vote in a Republican primary in Bush's strongest district while Bashing Bush.

    This race shows that close to half the conservatives are in revolt.

    W
    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  6. #6
    Senior Member curiouspat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Seattle, WA. area!
    Posts
    3,341
    President Bush was beginning to make a significant change in his thinking.
    IMO, Don't think so. Maybe he's starting to be aware that there IS an election fight on...but he's NOT going to change his mind.
    TIME'S UP!
    **********
    Why should <u>only</u> AMERICAN CITIZENS and LEGAL immigrants, have to obey the law?!

  7. #7
    Senior Member Brian503a's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    California or ground zero of the invasion
    Posts
    16,029
    http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,640191079,00.html

    Friday, June 30, 2006

    It's all but impossible to unseat an incumbent

    By Bob Bernick Jr.
    Deseret Morning News


    Rep. Chris Cannon is hoping that come 2008, Congress will have either settled or made great progress in solving the United States' immigration problems.

    Maybe, just maybe, Cannon has faced his last intra-party challenge on the illegal immigration issue.

    Cannon beat fellow Republican John Jacob rather handily in Tuesday's primary election in U.S. House District 3. The final count: 55.8 percent for Cannon, 44.2 percent for Jacob.

    Jacob was a formidable candidate from the first. He was articulate. He had ideas. And he had a lot of his own money.

    It has, unfortunately, come down to this: You just don't have much of a chance to unseat an incumbent unless you can afford to dump $500,000 or $1 million into your own race.

    Individuals and political action committees alike know the odds. Something like 98 percent of congressional incumbents who seek re-election win.

    But Cannon looked vulnerable.

    The immigration debate — which had Cannon solidly in President Bush's corner with guest workers and a realization that you can't kick out of the country 12 million illegal aliens — was against Cannon.

    While Jacob couldn't control outside anti-Cannon monies coming in, he was pretty sure they would come. And they did via an independent campaign run by the Team America PAC.

    But mainly, Jacob had his own cash.

    A multimillionaire through his land and water developments, Jacob figured he could put as much as $1 million into the race — much of it to defeat Cannon, the rest to beat any Democrat in the heavily-Republican district. Jacob ended up putting at least $413,000 in.

    And Jacob started out well.

    He never had high name ID. But he figured that would come. He got more votes in the state Republican convention than Cannon — showing a basic unhappiness with the incumbent.

    Jacob knew the June 27 primary would have low turnout, but, again, he thought that should actually help him.

    He counted on Cannon to not have a bunch of campaign cash — for the incumbent notoriously hates to raise funds.

    And he knew he probably had the anti-illegal immigration movement solidly behind him. They may not give him a bunch of money, but they could organize and turn out the vote.

    As Jacob told me: "A perfect storm is building" to push Jacob into office and defeat Cannon.

    But several weeks ago, Jacob started making mistakes.

    He first broke a cardinal rule: If there is anything in your past that will hurt you, it will come out. So you need to "inoculate" yourself, as the political term goes. You bring up those problems yourself, and you bring them up early.

    Jacob didn't do that.

    He let pro-immigration elements first report that he hired an immigrant couple a few years ago. While it may have turned out that Jacob did nothing wrong, he got a week of bad press over the issue — people who had never heard his name or didn't know him personally got a poor first impression.

    He then talked candidly about how he used to gamble some as a younger man.

    And he actually told the editorial board of The Salt Lake Tribune that he thought the devil was hampering his attempts to liquidate some business holdings, the profits to go into his campaign.

    There's one thing worse than personally stumbling over your main issue (hiring immigrants), and that's looking like a religious zealot.

    You may actually believe that God and the devil operate in your personal life. You may have had some experiences with both. But if you are a candidate for major office, you don't talk about it publicly — even in Utah's 3rd Congressional District.

    Remember 1998 when Cannon was challenged by an unknown harp maker named Jeremy Friedbaum? Friedbaum even forced Cannon into a primary election (again showing Cannon's weakness among party faithful delegates). And then Friedbaum starting talking about how God had personally told him to run against Cannon.

    Cannon not actually being opposed by God, it was the end of Friedbaum's hopes. Big primary win for Cannon.

    Yes, it turned out there was a perfect storm in Tuesday's GOP 3rd District primary. But it wasn't winds of change. It was the whirling defeat of a well-meaning, well-financed and hopeful challenger in the 3rd District.

    Cannon's desire now is that come 2008, the illegal-immigration monkey will be off of his back — the issue settled one way or another.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com
    Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at http://eepurl.com/cktGTn

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •