Vote adds fuel to immigration battle
Cannon win won't end debate

6/29/2006
By Glen Warchol and Thomas Burr
The Salt Lake Tribune

Rep. Chris Cannon's defeat of John Jacob decisively ended the incumbent's primary threat, but the immigration debate that dominated the campaign is nowhere near settled.

The White House says Cannon's victory proves Americans want comprehensive immigration reform. And some political observers hope the Utah election revived an immigration bill that appeared near death.

On the other hand, Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., guru of the anti-illegal immigration movement, insists Cannon's hard-fought primary, achieved only with the president's direct intervention, has shifted the national debate closer to his hard-line enforcement position.

"When I heard some of the things Chris Cannon was saying in the campaign, I was thinking I easily could be listening to me talk. It seemed like, by golly, he's finally getting tough on immigration," Tancredo said.

To many observers and pundits nationally, the election decided by a scant 6,700 votes was seen as a "referendum on immigration reform." Yet before the final votes were counted, both sides were casting the results as somehow an approval of their positions.

William Gheen, director of the Americans for Legal Immigration PAC that endorsed Jacob, offered solace to anti-illegal immigration activists in Utah. "This election was not a referendum," Gheen said. "It was a lightning rod."

Cannon's victory Tuesday, which many believe was only possible with a saturation pre-recorded phone campaign that included President Bush and first lady Laura Bush, is only the start of a ballot-box revolt that will culminate in the November general elections, Gheen says. "This is the beginning. This is one race. The true test comes in November. This issue is going to be a hot button in at least half the races."

White House spokesman Peter Watkins said Bush is still committed to immigration reform that includes a guest-worker program, and Cannon's triumph in the primary ''proves the American people are ready for lawmakers to pass comprehensive immigration reform."

Though Cannon's victory likely only proves once again that officeholders are hard to beat - 98 percent of incumbents have been re-elected in recent times - the primary helps build congressional support for Bush's plan, according to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

"This pumps their ability to get an immigration bill when just about everybody had written it off," Sabato said. "Those who were on the fence may use this as cover. And they may even reassure themselves that their jobs aren't on the line."

Though Cannon displayed bravado on election night, calling his win a defeat of "extremism," Tancredo says the five-term congressman and his allies are scared. ''Here are people who now have to construct this image of 'tough on immigration,' tough on illegals. They have to construct a new persona to garner votes. It's fine with me if everybody wants to dance around the immigration issue,'' Tancredo said. ''They're dancing closer to my side of the field.''

Other observers agree: A Cannon loss would have struck a severe blow to Congress passing any significant immigration reform, but his winning will not make it a sure thing.

"One victory in one district in Utah is not going to make the whole House turn around and say let's pass that Senate bill," which includes a guest-worker program among other more immigrant-friendly measures, says Tamar Jacoby, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

The race also proves, Jacoby says, that rousing anti-illegal immigration sentiment is "fool's gold" for Republican challengers. "It's always tempting," she said, "but in the last several decades it has not turned an election."

Quin Monson, Assistant Director of the Center for the Study for Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, says Cannon unsuccessfully has been attacked on the issue in the last two primaries. "The primary suggests there is a sizable chunk of people who think immigration is a big issue, but not enough to run an election on."

Brad Coker, managing director for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, also sees the anti-immigration activists as losers in the primary.

"They are going to take a hit; they still haven't been able to take out a sitting congressman with their issue. This is going to continue to lend credence to the argument that immigration only plays to a narrow slice of the electorate."

But the message is clouded because Cannon did not win the election as much as Jacob lost it in the final days through a series of missteps that included telling reporters Satan was undermining his campaign.

"Jacob's biggest problem was that he was green as a candidate. When it came down to crunch time, a more skillful candidate would have been able to finish without stumbling," Coker said. As it was, "Cannon had to pull out every stop, including calling the president into a primary election."

http://www.sltrib.com/utah/ci_3992680